Will gold prices break $10,000? After entering a bear market, market veterans reaffirm their bullish outlook

Question to AI: Why do experts insist on a 10,000-point target during the gold bear market?

Financial Link March 24th (Editor: Niu Zhanlin) Recently, the sharp sell-off in gold has pushed this precious metal into bear market territory, but some seasoned market participants still maintain their ambitious long-term price targets.

On Tuesday during the European trading session, gold rose slightly, trading at $4,413 per ounce, after having earlier dropped about 2% on the same day. In other precious metals, spot silver was up 0.9%, trading at $70.11 per ounce; spot platinum rose 1.3%, trading at $1,906.80; while palladium fell 1%, trading at $1,419.25.

The recent consecutive declines have caused gold prices to fall approximately 21% from the peak of $5,594.82 set in late January, officially entering a bear market.

However, many strategists believe that this round of declines reflects more of a short-term market mismatch rather than a fundamental shift in gold’s outlook. Ongoing geopolitical risks, strong central bank demand, and expectations of a weaker dollar continue to support a structural bull market for gold. Gold has traditionally been viewed by investors as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times.

Veteran in the precious metals market, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, recently stated: “We still stand by our forecast that gold will reach $10,000 by the end of this decade.” However, he has lowered his year-end target from $6,000 to $5,000, a level still about 14% higher than current prices.

Yardeni previously mentioned: “Our current gold target is $5,000 by 2026. If the current uptrend continues, it may break through the $10,000 mark before 2030.”

The trigger for this latest round of declines was investors choosing to close positions amid a strengthening dollar. Market participants noted that the stronger dollar could prompt profit-taking in gold. Since the outbreak of war on February 28, the dollar index has risen approximately 3%.

Some analysts have also pointed out that this round of gold correction reflects the will of the U.S. government and Wall Street, who are choosing to aggressively suppress gold prices to maintain dollar hegemony and the prices of dollar-denominated assets.

The Structural Drivers for Gold’s Rise Remain Unchanged

Despite the weak short-term performance of gold, strategists generally view this correction as a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

Justin Lin, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, stated that his baseline expectation for gold remains $6,000 per ounce by year-end, and he described the current correction as “an extremely attractive entry point.”

He emphasized: “This round of sell-off seems to be driven by multiple short-term factors, including increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, asset reallocation amid a weakening stock market, and a certain degree of complacency regarding the Iran conflict.”

Lin particularly stressed that his bullish logic does not rely on the risk premium brought about by war.

He stated: “Our judgment is more based on the broader macro context—ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, sustained central bank purchases of gold, and continued inflows into Asian gold ETFs.”

This structural demand, especially from emerging market central banks increasing gold allocations to diversify foreign exchange reserves, is expected to provide bottom support for gold prices. Lin added that after this round of correction, central banks are likely to increase their gold purchases, thereby helping to stabilize the market.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated: “The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode. Considering that oil prices have retreated, this to some extent reduces interest rate hike expectations, thereby providing some stability to current gold prices.”

He added: “The structural drivers that have pushed gold prices up in recent years—debt issues, political pressure for the Fed to cut interest rates, high inflation, low interest rates, and a weaker dollar—remain unchanged; there has been no change in this regard.”

Standard Chartered also maintains a constructive view on gold, highlighting similar long-term driving factors.

The bank’s senior investment strategist, Rajat Bhattacharya, stated: “We remain optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects, supported by strong demand from emerging market central banks and the diversification needs of investors under geopolitical risk.”

Standard Chartered expects that after the current deleveraging phase ends, gold prices will rebound to around $5,375 per ounce in the next three months and believes there is technical support around the $4,100 level.

A weaker dollar could become a key catalyst for gold’s recovery, with the market expecting the Fed to eventually shift towards cutting interest rates. Bhattacharya stated: “A weaker dollar will once again support gold prices.”

Meanwhile, executives at the World Gold Council (WGC) indicated that gold, as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks, is expected to prompt central banks that have long been uninvolved in the market to purchase this precious metal this year.

(Financial Link Niu Zhanlin)