Decoding US Dollar Liquidity: Macro Chengtan Takes You Through the Underlying Logic of Global Asset Pricing

Macroeconomic research has always been a field that investors love and hate.

Those who agree with it believe that only by understanding macro trends can you grasp the main thread of the times. In capital markets, the truly big opportunities often come from making the right judgment about the direction of the tide of the era; only by standing on the side of the trend can returns potentially be amplified—just as long as you’re on the right runway, even a “pig” can take off.

Those who question it, on the other hand, believe macro is too big and too abstract. Changes in monetary/fiscal policy across the ocean seem far removed from one’s own account returns. Rather than spending a large amount of time researching these “not grounded in reality” issues, it may be better to focus on screening individual stocks and specific assets.

Over the past decade or more, these two viewpoints have continued to spar without end.

But after 2020, the market environment began to change noticeably.

Macro factors are no longer just “background variables,” but increasingly directly affect asset pricing and the pace of the market. The weight of macro trading continues to rise: the starting point of many market moves no longer comes from industry logic or company fundamentals, but from changes in policy and liquidity.

The deeper underlying reason is that the policy approach of the world’s major economies is shifting—Western governments are gradually moving away from the “small government” model that emphasizes free markets, toward a “big government” model with more proactive intervention. In the face of economic downturn and market volatility, policymakers’ tolerance has clearly declined, and fiscal and monetary policies are being used more frequently to stabilize growth and prop up the market.

The direct impact is this: the relationship between macro variables and market performance has become more complex.

Taking the second half of 2025 as an example, if you look only at the micro level, the fundamentals at the time did not support an across-the-board “bull market.” Global economic growth was still slowing; improvements in corporate earnings were not significant; and geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainty remained.

Yet the market moved to a different rhythm—from U.S. equities to emerging market equities, from commodities to parts of some higher-risk assets—almost at the same time, with clear gains. The divergence between different asset classes was rapidly compressed, overall risk appetite was lifted, and it took on a state of “synchronized expansion.”

Many investors’ intuitive feeling at the time was: it seems like all assets are going up, but it’s hard to say why.

If you use the traditional fundamental framework, it’s difficult to explain this phenomenon. Because industry logic, corporate earnings, and regional differences did not improve in sync.

But if you look at it from the perspective of macro and liquidity, it becomes easier to understand: at that time, under constraints from growth pressure and financial stability goals, the policy stance of major economies began to loosen at the margin; the U.S. dollar liquidity environment improved in phases, pushing global funding costs down; at the same time, the balance sheets of some key financial intermediaries expanded, further amplifying the efficiency of capital transmission across different markets.

The result is: capital was not “selectively” flowing into one category of assets, but repricing risk assets at a faster pace across a broader range.

In this kind of environment: it’s hard to explain where returns come from through a single industry or individual stock logic. What truly plays the leading role is a higher-level variable—changes in liquidity across the entire financial system.

This is also the shared confusion many investors had in that period: you may not have captured a particular “certain” industry, yet as long as you were in the market, you still could earn returns; but once you ignore shifts in the macro environment, even if your individual stock selection has no obvious issues, your portfolio performance may still lag noticeably.

Behind this case is a reality that is becoming increasingly important: in certain phases, markets are not driven by “bottom-up” fundamentals, but are priced uniformly by “top-down” macro liquidity. And understanding this often determines whether you’re riding the trend—or fighting against it.

But we must admit: if our understanding of the macro environment stays only at the surface-level indicator layer—GDP, inflation, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the like—we may easily fall into a trap: the more data we see, the harder the market becomes to understand. Because what often affects the market’s rhythm is not the surface data itself, but the deeper operating mechanisms:

How is U.S. dollar liquidity generated?

How does capital transmit through the financial system?

How does liquidity get redistributed across different markets?

—these mechanisms determine where capital flows to, and they also deeply affect the logic of asset pricing. Only by understanding them can you truly see how the macro environment impacts investing.

To answer these questions, Wall Street Insights has invited the founder of 《坦途宏观》, Cheng Tan, to bring a new master class on April 25, 2026 (Saturday) in Shanghai: 《From U.S. Dollar Liquidity to Understand the Underlying Logic of Global Asset Pricing》.

Dr. Cheng Tan graduated from the School of Finance at Peking University (Guanghua), and worked for ten years at the Central Foreign Exchange Business Center of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. He has long been involved in the global asset allocation and tactical operations of foreign exchange reserves. Here, he manages a large pool of foreign exchange assets and is one of the important participants in the global liquidity system.

Contrary to many people’s imagination, the administration’s investments are not simply passive allocation, but high-intensity active management. Multi-asset linkages across equities, bonds, and FX: once judgment deviates, performance pressure becomes very direct.

In such an environment, macro research is never work that’s just about “writing reports.” It is about continuously answering a series of real-world questions:

• Is the trend truly in place?
• Is a turning point approaching?
• Is noise interfering with judgment?

Later, Cheng Tan summarized the role of macro research in twelve words:

Grasp the trend, judge turning points, and eliminate noise— this methodology comes from long-term testing in real market conditions.

Of course, we must also be honest: this course is not suitable for all investors.

For most investors, understanding an industry and researching a company’s fundamentals is often a more direct and more efficient path.

But if you want, over a longer investment cycle, to capture the core variables behind market changes; if you want to understand the transmission logic behind global asset prices rather than staying at surface phenomena, then this course—relatively hardcore and more deeply paced—may be worth your serious investment of time.

As we co-developed the course with Professor Cheng Tan, we also made a decision that was not easy: to proactively give up “all-around” general-audience expression, and instead focus on deeper—and more monotonous—financial operating mechanisms.

Because we’ve become increasingly clear: macro policy, the structure of the financial system, and the balance sheets of residents are essentially an interconnected system. If you ignore the structure of financial intermediaries and the liquidity transmission paths and rely only on aggregate indicators to judge the trend, it’s easy to misread the market.

Through this course, we hope to help you build a practical liquidity analysis framework.

Not a pile of scattered knowledge points, but a complete system—from concepts to tools, from mechanisms to case studies.

What you ultimately gain is not only knowledge itself, but two more important capabilities: the ability to grasp the macro main thread from the top down and the ability to verify liquidity details from the bottom up

In a market environment where uncertainty has become the norm, we hope this framework can become a set of foundational tools for you to understand asset pricing.

If you want: not to be driven by emotions anymore, not to stay at the level of viewpoints anymore, but to truly understand the underlying logic of how the market operates—then this course may provide you with a systematic starting point.

This session includes one hour of interactive Q&A. Students can discuss their most pressing questions with Professor Cheng Tan and get face-to-face answers. If you’re interested in this course, you can click the image above to register. If you’d like to learn more course details, you’re also welcome to scan the image below and consult the course assistant.

Risk warning and disclaimer terms

        The market has risk; investing requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account any individual user’s special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.