The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in April, with the move imminent—markets haven't fully priced this in yet, and that's where the opportunity lies~

Japanese government bond yields just hit their highest since 1999, the yen remains under pressure around 160, and domestic inflation continues to run above target. The BOJ has long moved beyond the question of whether to raise rates; now it's about how to raise them~
The real trading advantage lies in the time gap: markets often start pricing in negative news only two to three weeks before the event. With a window still open before the April policy meeting, this period is when information asymmetry is most valuable~
Once the market begins to front-run the pricing, the chain reaction will spread quickly: yen appreciation → pressure on arbitrage trades to close → U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and emerging markets all come under pressure simultaneously. The last time this happened was in August 2024, when #纳斯达克 单周跌了接近10%，# Bitcoin suddenly plunged 15% overnight~
Now, the focus isn't on whether rates will be raised but on when the yen will start to reverse and when the futures market's rate hike probability curve will steepen. These two signals mark the starting point of market pricing~
Those who see it early have time to adjust their positions. Waiting until the news breaks means you're just taking over someone else's position~
#日本央行 # Rate hike #日元 # Arbitrage trading #USDJPY