The coal sector leads the gains, with the Guotai (515220) Coal ETF closing up more than 1.1%, marking five consecutive days of net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan.

The coal sector leads the rise. On March 26, the Coal ETF from Guotai (515220) closed up over 1.1%, with a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days.

Relevant institutions indicated that after the holiday, the price of thermal coal in major production areas saw a slight increase, with improved enthusiasm for transportation at loading stations and coal yards, and an increase in terminal restocking demand compared to earlier periods. Coupled with rising purchase prices from large groups, market sentiment has improved, leading to a continuous slight increase in pithead prices. In the medium to long term, the situation in the Middle East has become the biggest variable. If the conflict continues to escalate, it will catalyze increases in oil prices and chemical prices, consequently driving up coal prices.

Currently, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are still at historically low levels, providing room for a rebound. With the supply-side “production inspection” policy promoting a contraction in output and the demand side entering the peak heating season, the fundamental supply and demand for coal is expected to continue improving, with both types of coal prices having upward elasticity. Among them, thermal coal has the support of long-term contract mechanism recovery and the logic of “profit sharing between coal and thermal power companies”; while coking coal, being more market-driven, is more sensitive to supply and demand changes, and may exhibit greater price elasticity.

Under the increasing external shocks and expectations of reduced imported coal, coal prices are likely to continue their upward trend. The sustainability of the increase needs to focus on the persistence of supply disruptions from Indonesian coal, the impact of the US-Iran conflict, port inventory accumulation, and the release of procurement demand during the traditional non-electric peak season.

The Coal ETF from Guotai (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed company securities involved in coal mining and processing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as index samples, using an equal-weight distribution method to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry. This index has high dividend characteristics and strong cyclical features, with constituent stocks covering subfields such as thermal coal and coking coal, allowing it to accurately reflect the dynamic changes in the coal industry.

Risk reminder: Mentioning individual stocks is only for the analysis of industry events and does not constitute any individual stock recommendation or investment advice. Short-term fluctuations in indices are for reference only and do not represent future performance, nor do they constitute a commitment or guarantee regarding fund performance. Views may adjust with changes in the market environment and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. The risk-return characteristics of mentioned funds vary, and investors are advised to carefully read the fund legal documents, fully understand product elements, risk levels, and profit distribution principles, and choose products that match their risk tolerance, investing cautiously.

Daily Economic News