Will the US economy outlook worsen? The US credit risk spread hits a new high since May 7, 2025.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-29 04:41:48

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As of March 3, 2026 data shows that the yield spread between the U.S. CCC-rated high-yield bonds and 10-year Treasury yields is 9.12%, the highest since May 7, 2025. The risk of corporate insolvency has increased, which is an important signal that the economic outlook is deteriorating.

(Data source: Tonghuashun (300033) iFinD)

The credit spread is the yield spread between high-yield bonds and Treasuries, reflecting the market’s expectations for companies’ future default risk.

When economic conditions are favorable and companies are operating well, the risk of corporate insolvency declines, and bond issuance yields also fall, causing the credit-risk spread to narrow; conversely, when the economy enters a recession and firms are close to bankruptcy, companies’ bond yields can rise sharply, and the credit-risk spread can widen significantly.

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