Oil price fluctuations trigger market volatility, gold rebounds but silver continues to decline

Key Points

• Gold prices rebounded slightly on Friday, while silver prices showed volatility.

• Both precious metals were sold off on Thursday and are expected to close lower this week.

• Investors are closely monitoring the developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices and inflation.

  After experiencing heavy selling pressure the previous trading day, gold prices rebounded slightly on Friday, while silver prices continued to decline.

  Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4662.51 per ounce, pulling back from earlier larger gains in the session. Gold futures increased by 1.2% to $4662.10.

  Spot silver recently dropped about 1.7% to $71.62 per ounce, fluctuating within a range during the morning session. Silver futures rose approximately 0.8%.

  Both gold and silver are expected to record declines this week, with gold’s drop likely nearing 9% and silver expected to fall over 10%.

  On Thursday, the precious metals market faced a comprehensive sell-off, with spot prices plunging sharply at one point, narrowing to about a 3% drop by the end of the session, amid heightened concerns over the economic impact of the Iran conflict.

  Since the U.S. and Israel began military action against Iran, severe volatility in the oil market has continued to affect global investor sentiment. On Friday, oil prices fluctuated, rebounding slightly after a drop in the morning.

  Global stock markets showed mixed trends on Friday, with European markets lacking a clear direction and most Asian markets trading lower. U.S. stock index futures indicated a possible decline at the Wall Street open, having previously suggested a rebound from Thursday’s downturn.

  Arthur Parry, a metals and mining stock analyst at SP Angel, stated in an interview with CNBC’s “European Business Report” on Friday that the extreme volatility in gold prices in recent weeks partly stems from a reversal following a significant rise after the first attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel.

  “The previous gains have largely been completely retraced, and the decline has been quite significant,” he said, “largely due to momentum traders closing their positions.”

  Both gold and silver experienced record-breaking rallies in 2025, soaring 66% and 135% for the year, respectively. However, trading volatility for both increased significantly in 2026, with silver futures recording the largest single-day drop since the 1980s at the end of January.

  Parry pointed out that during the 2025 gold bull market, “a large influx of retail investors, systematic hedge funds, and individual capital entered the market.”

  “This capital is not long-term allocated to gold,” he stated, “since the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the freezing of Russian assets, central banks have been continuously increasing their gold holdings. I believe that central banks initiated the first wave of this multi-year gold bull market, followed by trend traders and retail investors joining in. Now this capital is exiting, which may be the necessary adjustment for gold to begin a new upward phase.”

  Tony Meadows, head of wealth management investments at BRI, told CNBC that gold and silver prices are influenced by both daily supply and demand and are closely related to “safe-haven premiums.”

  “I don’t see it as a tool for hedging against daily fluctuations in risk assets,” he stated, “its movement is driven more by long-term trends rather than short-term safe-haven trading.”

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Editor: Guo Mingyu