Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: Historical data shows that gold prices may have another 5% decline space

Ask AI · Why does historical data suggest that gold prices still have room to fall?

Financial Associated Press, March 20 — Yesterday, the market experienced a full-day fluctuation and adjustment, with all three major indices falling more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly dropped below the 4,000-point level during trading. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.11 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, green energy and computing power synergy concepts outperformed against the trend, while computing power leasing and oil & gas concepts were active. On the downside, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and steel weakened. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.11%.

At today’s brokerage morning meeting, CITIC Securities believes that historical data indicates that gold prices may still have 5% downside potential; CITIC Securities notes that the release of the XPO white paper will reshape the value distribution of the optical module industry chain; Huatai Securities believes that overseas advertising platforms are entering a new cycle of technological dividends and valuation restructuring.

CITIC Securities: Historical Data Shows Gold Prices May Still Have 5% Downside Potential

After the US-Iran conflict, gold prices weakened, which can be understood from four perspectives. Historical experience shows that after geopolitical conflicts erupt, gold prices tend to perform weakly, with declines often being the norm; increases in gold are more likely to occur before conflicts erupt. The hedging effect of gold against US stocks is not as strong as imagined. In recent years, gold prices have shown a high correlation with US stocks; in the current environment of declining US stocks, holding gold does not offer protection. In the short term, the rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields also exert some downward pressure on gold prices. Gold experienced a strong rally at the beginning of the year, with volatility soaring to historic highs, which may cause market caution in the short term. Referring to the historical maximum decline in gold prices after the Iran-Iraq war, there may still be about 5% downside space. If US stocks stabilize, it will lay the foundation for a recovery in overall market sentiment, which may require conflict de-escalation. Volatility should continue to normalize.

CITIC Securities: Release of XPO White Paper Reshapes the Value Distribution of the Optical Module Industry Chain

On March 11, 2026, Arista, together with over 45 industry partners, officially released the eXtra-dense Pluggable Optics (XPO) white paper, proposing a new standard for next-generation AI data center pluggable optical modules. A single XPO module can provide 12.8Tbps bandwidth (64 channels × 200Gbps), with integrated liquid cooling plates supporting over 400W power consumption, achieving 204.8Tbps switching capacity within one Open Rack Unit (1OU), representing a fourfold increase in front panel density compared to the existing OSFP standard. The launch of XPO marks the official entry of AI data center optical interconnection into a new phase of “ultra-high-density pluggable,” which will profoundly change the product forms and value distribution of the optical module industry chain. It is recommended to focus on manufacturers with layout advantages in high-speed optical modules, optical engines, and liquid cooling solutions.

Huatai Securities: Overseas Advertising Platforms Enter a New Cycle of Technological Dividends and Valuation Restructuring

In the era of antitrust regulation and post-privacy policies, overseas advertising is experiencing a revolution driven by AI in monetization efficiency. The core industry logic is shifting from tag tracking to real-time intent prediction. The walled gardens based on user ID systems are loosening, and leading platforms with full-stack AI foundations in open networks are emerging strongly. These platforms, with their superior monetization efficiency and profit elasticity, are leading structural budget reallocation and enjoying valuation premiums. It is advisable to focus on targets with relatively complete industry chain layouts, deep vertical data accumulation, self-developed algorithms, and strong engineering capabilities in this long-term technological cycle.

(Financial Associated Press)