Trump posts a correction: "Shoot down" oil prices before crude oil and US stock futures markets see a surge in trading volume

A social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump caused oil prices to plummet by as much as 14% overnight, just about 15 minutes after contracts representing millions of barrels of oil changed hands.

According to exchange data, starting at 6:49 AM Washington time on Monday, futures contracts equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil were sold in just two minutes. In contrast, the average trading volume during the same period over the previous five trading days was about 700 contracts, or 700,000 barrels. Trump posted on Truth Social around 7:05 AM.

In his post, Trump stated that the U.S. would delay striking Iran’s energy infrastructure and was engaged in “productive dialogue” with the country. He had threatened Iran on Saturday, stating that if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would launch an attack within 48 hours. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passageway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil transportation occurs.

“Yesterday, we were counting down to Trump ‘destroying’ Iranian power plants, and today it has turned into a countdown to reaching an ‘agreement’ with Iran,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Bank. “The challenge for traders is that there is a lot of risk and volatility to manage between these two extreme scenarios.”

Before Trump’s post caused the drop in oil prices, the nominal value of these contracts was about $650 million. It is still unclear whether they were part of a broader strategy involving other derivatives (such as time spreads or options), and the specific identity of the counterparties remains unknown.

Rennie noted, “What market participants most want to avoid is any indication that someone made substantial profits from large trades before these extreme fluctuations occurred.”

Moreover, prior to Trump’s post, the trading volume of S&P 500 futures also suddenly surged.

Data shows that between 6:49 AM and 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, a total of 4,497 contracts changed hands, breaking the previously quiet pre-market session for U.S. stocks. This volume, combined with rising prices, corresponds to a nominal amount of about $1.46 billion, making it the largest trade of the morning.