Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Key Turning Point in US-Iran Conflict, Signals of Rate Hikes from Japan and US Central Banks

On March 29, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has lasted a full month, and the upcoming week is expected to be filled with uncertainties and potential black swan events. Whether peace talks will proceed or conflicts will escalate, every small step will affect the market’s tense nerves. In addition to geopolitical conflicts, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will present their expected roadmap for interest rate hikes, and the US non-farm payroll data will significantly impact market liquidity expectations. The specifics are as follows: On Monday at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting; on Tuesday at 04:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; on Wednesday at 00:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at an event hosted by the bank; on Wednesday at 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; on Thursday at 20:30, the US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 and the US trade balance for February; on Friday at 20:30, the US will release the unemployment rate for March, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for March, the year-on-year average hourly earnings for March, and the month-on-month average hourly earnings for March; on Friday at 21:45, the final value of the US Services PMI for March will be released. Lastly, on April 3 (Friday), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed all day; trading in precious metals and US crude oil futures will be suspended all day; stock index futures will end early (Beijing time 21:15); forex and US Treasury futures will end early (Beijing time 23:15); and Brent crude oil futures will be suspended all day.