Why ConocoPhillips Is Among the Best Oil Stocks to Buy Now for Long-Term Investors

ConocoPhillips has established itself as one of the industry’s premier energy companies, and recent performance confirms why it deserves consideration among best oil stocks to buy now. The combination of operational excellence, strategic project execution, and disciplined capital allocation creates a compelling investment thesis for those seeking both growth and income through the end of this decade.

Strong 2025 Performance Sets Foundation for Growth

ConocoPhillips delivered impressive operational results in 2025, outperforming across multiple metrics. The company achieved average production of nearly 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent annually, representing 2.5% growth compared to 2024. More significantly, the company successfully completed its integration of Marathon Oil ahead of schedule, capturing cost synergies that exceeded initial projections by 100%, totaling more than $1 billion in annual savings.

CEO Ryan Lance highlighted the company’s execution excellence: “We outperformed our initial production, capital, and cost guidance; successfully integrated Marathon Oil, doubling our synergy capture; and made strong progress on our incremental cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts.” This track record demonstrates management’s ability to deliver on commitments while maintaining operational discipline.

The financial impact proved substantial. Operating cash flow reached $19.9 billion, with free cash flow of $7.3 billion generated despite navigating a challenging price environment. The company also monetized $3.2 billion in non-core assets, enabling aggressive shareholder returns totaling $9 billion through $5 billion in share repurchases and $4 billion in dividends.

Cash Flow Expansion Targets Double by 2029

The real opportunity lies ahead. ConocoPhillips deployed $12.6 billion in capital expenditures to develop its global portfolio, with strategic investments concentrated on three major liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects and the Willow oil development in Alaska—projects expected to transform the company’s cash generation profile.

Management projects an additional $1 billion in incremental annual free cash flow through 2028 as LNG facilities come online and cost synergies expand further. When Willow begins production in 2029, the company anticipates a $4 billion incremental cash flow boost. Combined, these developments position free cash flow to nearly double versus 2025 levels, reaching approximately $14 billion annually.

This outlook assumes oil averages $70 per barrel—a conservative assumption that provides downside protection. Even at $60 per barrel, the company projects generating $6 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating resilience across commodity price scenarios. The current environment, with oil trading around $65 per barrel, sits comfortably within this framework.

Shareholder Returns on an Upward Trajectory

The expanded cash generation provides substantial dry powder for shareholder returns. ConocoPhillips raised its dividend by 8% in late 2025, achieving its objective of delivering dividend growth among the top 25% of S&P 500 companies—a distinction that positions it among the most shareholder-friendly energy firms.

With nearly $7 billion in additional free cash flow expected by 2029, the company has meaningful capacity to accelerate both buyback programs and dividend increases. This combination—predictable income growth coupled with balance sheet strength—distinguishes ConocoPhillips from sector peers and justifies its inclusion among best oil stocks to buy now for income-focused investors.

The Case for Holding Through the Decade

Several factors reinforce why this remains a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity through 2029 and beyond. First, the company possesses one of the highest-quality resource bases in the lower-48 states combined with world-class global expansion projects—competitive advantages that few competitors can match. Second, management has demonstrated exceptional execution capability, as evidenced by Marathon Oil integration and consistent guidance outperformance. Third, the visible cash flow growth trajectory provides unprecedented visibility into future shareholder distributions.

The confluence of strong fundamentals, strategic positioning, and committed capital return policies creates a rare combination for the energy sector. For investors seeking exposure to oil markets while capturing meaningful dividend income with embedded growth potential, ConocoPhillips represents a defensible core holding through the current decade.