Lithium prices surge over 160% in 9 months! Latest statements from CATL, Guoxuan High-tech, Zijin Mining, and more

(Source: My Battery Network)

Introduction | mybattery

In response to the fluctuations in the prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate, many listed companies have recently made intensive statements, systematically disclosing their countermeasures from various dimensions including resource layout, procurement management, price transmission, and technological substitution.

Image source: Lithium Industry Association

On March 23, the Lithium Industry Association of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as: Lithium Industry Association) announced the operating conditions of the lithium industry for February 2026. The data shows that in February, the national lithium carbonate production was approximately 78,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.0%; the national lithium hydroxide production was approximately 28,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.6%. The total lithium salts production equivalent to lithium carbonate (LCE) was approximately 103,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7%.

From a regional distribution perspective, in February, China’s lithium carbonate production was mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, with production shares of 31%, 23%, and 13% respectively; lithium hydroxide production was mainly concentrated in Sichuan and Jiangxi, with production shares of 42% and 30%.

Lithium carbonate spot and futures prices (CNY/ton) Image source: Lithium Industry Association

Behind the changes in production, the price trend is equally noteworthy. Data from the Lithium Industry Association shows that in February, domestic lithium carbonate prices continued to rise. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 148,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 158,500 CNY/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.1%; the closing price of the main contract rose from 132,440 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 176,040 CNY/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 32.9%. The price difference between spot and futures widened to approximately 17,000 CNY/ton.

Similarly, in February, domestic lithium hydroxide prices increased, rising from 156,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 165,500 CNY/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.1%.

In response to this price trend, the Lithium Industry Association analyzed that in February 2026, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with prices rapidly increasing after the holiday, the basis continuously widening, showing a “not quiet off-season” trend. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production decreased month-on-month, and Zimbabwe announced a halt to all lithium ore exports. On the demand side, sales of new energy vehicles were below expectations, and the decline in export tax rebates for lithium batteries boosted the demand for urgent exports in the first quarter.

From the latest market trends, data from Tonghuashun shows that on March 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reported 145,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5,000 CNY/ton from the previous day, with a daily drop of 3.33%. In the last week, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by a total of 13,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 8.23%; in the last month, the price increased by a total of 1,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.83%. Since the price low in June 2025, as of March 23, 2026, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 CNY/ton, a cumulative increase of 160.4%.

SMM data shows that on March 23, the purchasing price range for downstream material factories for lithium carbonate mainly concentrated between 141,000-144,000 CNY/ton. As the end of the month approaches, companies have begun to purchase and stock up for early April. The upstream lithium salt factories’ spot sales remain weak, with some fixed-price intentions quoted above 160,000 CNY/ton, but actual transactions are sparse.

Changes in the futures market are also significant. Data from Tonghuashun shows that since November 2025, as of March 23, 2026, lithium carbonate futures prices have increased by over 70%, with an increase of over 19% since the beginning of this year.

Regarding future trends, Galaxy Futures stated in a report on March 24 that for lithium carbonate, last week downstream purchasing was around 140,000 CNY/ton, and the current psychological price range for downstream procurement is 130,000-140,000 CNY/ton. In terms of raw material stocking, downstream has basically stocked enough inventory for April production, and May’s inventory is at a relatively ample level, with a low willingness for further high-priced stocking. The production plans for April and May still show a month-on-month increase, but the actual delivery speed at the terminal has slowed down. Currently, battery manufacturers have not made substantial order cuts, but their physical inventory has significantly recovered compared to January, leading to a lower acceptance of high-priced raw materials.

Mysteel believes that the core price fluctuation range for lithium carbonate is expected to remain between 130,000-170,000 CNY/ton. Overall, supply and demand in March are tightly balanced, and supply-demand conflicts are not prominent, being significantly affected by external macro factors.

In response to the fluctuations in the prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate, many listed companies have recently made intensive statements, systematically disclosing their countermeasures:

On March 23, Zijin Mining (601899) Executive Director, Vice Chairman, and President Lin Hongfu analyzed during the company’s 2025 performance presentation that looking ahead to 2026, the trend of lithium price reversal has started, and the lithium industry is evolving from a paper surplus to a tight balance situation.

On the demand side, the global trend of energy transformation remains unchanged, and the new energy vehicle industry is advancing from a period of rapid expansion to a new stage of high-quality development, with energy storage becoming an undisputed core growth engine driven by policy and economic factors.

On the supply side, there is a pattern of growth and risk coexisting. On one hand, large-scale projects in Australia, Africa, and South America are ramping up production, becoming the core source of supply increment; on the other hand, operational risks caused by geopolitical turmoil, policy changes in resource countries, and tightening environmental and regulatory policies will pose potential disturbances and uncertainties to actual supply.

Lin Hongfu believes that in the long term, the dual-driving pattern of new energy vehicles and energy storage is solidifying, the commercialization process of solid-state batteries is entering a critical acceleration period, and new scenarios such as AI data centers are becoming super demand engines. It is expected that by 2030, demand will exceed 3 million tons, and ensuring the safety of lithium resource supply will become a core issue for major economies and industry chain enterprises globally.

It is reported that Zijin Mining plans to achieve lithium carbonate production capacity equivalent to 270,000-320,000 tons by 2028, becoming one of the most important lithium producers in the world.

On March 12, leading lithium iron phosphate company Dodo Nano (300769) stated on the interactive platform that the company is actively expanding lithium source supply channels, establishing stable cooperative relationships with raw material suppliers, reducing costs through large-scale procurement, while strengthening market analysis, dynamically adjusting procurement and inventory strategies according to raw material supply-demand and price fluctuation trends, and will opportunistically carry out hedging business to reduce the impact of price fluctuations.

Coincidentally, in response to the recent increase in lithium carbonate prices, on March 2, another leading lithium iron phosphate company, Hunan Yunan (301358), also stated that the selling price of the company’s products is linked to the price of the main raw material, lithium carbonate, and that they have adopted flexible inventory management strategies to effectively transmit the impact of raw material market price fluctuations.

On March 9, battery giant CATL (300750) stated at its performance presentation that since the last round of lithium carbonate price cycles, the company has established and improved the price transmission mechanism with downstream customers, which is currently functioning well. The current round of lithium carbonate price increases is significantly lower than the previous round, coupled with the company’s significant achievements in technological innovation, product iteration, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement, enhancing the company’s ability to absorb cost fluctuations.

At the same time, CATL is accelerating the commercialization of sodium-ion batteries, which have already achieved some application in vehicle loading and are at an industry-leading level in comprehensive performance. If lithium carbonate prices rise further in the future, the application scenarios and market penetration of sodium-ion batteries are expected to expand further.

CATL also mentioned that lithium resources are not scarce globally, and the current price increase is mainly due to strong short-term market demand, with supply-side disturbances and the time needed for capacity release. As lithium prices rebound, mining enterprises’ profitability will recover, and global lithium mining will significantly accelerate, with the supply and demand of the lithium market expected to gradually improve.

On March 2, leading battery company Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) stated on the interactive platform that the company has laid out lithium ore resources in Yichun, Jiangxi, achieving full industry chain coverage from “raw ore mining - refining - battery-grade lithium carbonate,” effectively ensuring the long-term stable supply of raw materials and optimizing procurement costs. On the sales side, the company negotiates product prices with downstream customers to respond to market fluctuations.

Overall, in the face of the upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, companies are generally adopting comprehensive strategies in multiple dimensions: on the supply chain side, by laying out upstream lithium ore resources or planning large-scale self-owned production capacity to ensure long-term supply security; on price transmission, they generally establish price linkage mechanisms with downstream customers to reasonably transmit cost pressures downstream, while smoothing short-term price fluctuations through large-scale procurement, dynamic inventory management, and hedging; in addition, companies are enhancing their risk resistance capabilities through technological innovation and alternative solutions such as sodium-ion batteries to hedge against the risk of further increases in lithium prices.

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