Shouchuang Futures: Spot weakness drags down nearby, soybean meal futures are weak in the short term but strong in the long term

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-28T08:53:42+00:00

Today, the nearby soybean meal futures contract declined, and spot prices remain weak, with market quotes also lowered. It is expected that soybean meal spot prices will follow the decrease in costs, while weak breeding profits impact downstream procurement. Although rumors have prompted funds to enter the market for long positions, future domestic supply and cost uncertainties are significant. It is recommended to exercise caution and observe the negotiations between China and the U.S. as well as the supply pace.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-28 08:53:42

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Today, the near-month soybean meal contract has declined, with the March contract, which is nearing delivery, dropping over 2% at one point during the trading session, and the May contract also experiencing a slight decrease. The spot market sentiment is weak, with market quotes falling by 30-40 yuan/ton. Currently, the market generally expects that the spot price of soybean meal will decrease along with costs, as downstream stocking ahead of the holiday is expected to continue until March, while weak breeding profits continue to drive downstream purchases as needed. However, with the recent strong fluctuations in U.S. soybeans and the stabilization of Brazil’s premium and discount, the forward market prices are strongly supported by the theoretical cost of soybeans. Additionally, recent market rumors about the 25-day customs clearance being postponed to May have attracted some capital to go long on the May contract. However, uncertainties regarding domestic supply rhythms and cost factors remain abundant, and excessive price increases in the market equate to providing hedging opportunities for the industry, so a cautious wait-and-see approach is advised. It is also recommended to continue monitoring news on U.S.-China negotiations and the rhythm of domestic arrivals and reserve releases. (CICC Futures)

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