National Bureau of Statistics: Clear signs of stabilization in the first two months, industry steady recovery by 2026

How can AI policy support the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market?

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic and real estate data for January-February 2026.

In the real estate sector, affected by the high base from the previous year, sales volume and new construction continued to decline, but also showed positive signals: the increase in unsold area reached a four-year low, and the ratio of starts to sales further decreased.

The government work report from the Two Sessions pointed out that in 2026, efforts will further focus on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. In the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline, “fully releasing the potential for rigid and improvement housing demand” is included in the chapter on “vigorously boosting consumption”; it also proposes optimizing the supply of affordable housing, strengthening housing security for urban low-income families, and better meeting the basic housing needs of low-income wage earners facing housing difficulties, gradually addressing the phase-specific housing challenges of new citizens and youth.

It is expected that in 2026, the demand side of the industry will welcome more favorable policies, with more tax reductions, home purchase incentives, and other more tangible policies expected, while affordable housing will also become an important pillar for enhancing the certainty of demand-side development in the industry.

Consistent with industry expectations, due to the high base of the same period last year, new home transactions in early 2026 continued to decline year-on-year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2026, the transaction area of new commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with the month-on-month decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points compared to December 2025; the transaction amount of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, with the decline narrowing by 4 percentage points compared to December 2025.

In terms of funds available to real estate companies, personal mortgage loans amounted to 112.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 41.9%. The year-on-year growth rate of inventory is close to zero, with the unsold area at the end of February reaching 800 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the smallest year-on-year increase since 2022.

The government work report from the Two Sessions pointed out that in 2026, efforts will further focus on stabilizing the real estate market, and many regions are actively promoting new policies to stabilize the market at the beginning of the year, such as allowing the purchase of affordable housing in Shenzhen without entering a waiting list; a 2% subsidy for new home purchases in Hohhot, with a maximum of 50,000 yuan; and Shanghai starting to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, among other measures.

Taking Shanghai’s new policies after the Spring Festival as an example, the policies involve relaxing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing funds, and tax reductions on property, among other aspects. Non-Shanghai residents can purchase a home after having social security for one year, and those with a residence permit for five years can also buy a home, significantly relaxing the restrictive purchase policies. Following the policy adjustments, the new home market in Shanghai has shown a clear rebound, with over 2,300 new home online signings in the first week of March 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10%, despite the high base in early March 2025.

With the central government’s clear policy adjustment direction and the continuous accumulation of local market stabilization factors, the transaction trend of new homes in 2026 is expected to further accelerate stabilization.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2026, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 3.71 billion square meters, down 11.9%. The newly started construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a decline of 23.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 36.95 million square meters, down 23.3%.

During the same period, the scale of new starts was 54.7% of the new home sales scale, reaching a historical low. Despite the year-on-year decline in new home sales at the beginning of the year, the industry’s inventory pressure continues to ease, and the supply-demand relationship is showing an accelerated improvement trend. Combined with the requirements of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued at the beginning of the year in Document No. 38, which states that new urban construction land will generally not be used for commercial real estate development, it is expected that the scale of new starts will continue to be lower than the new home sales scale throughout the year, accelerating the industry’s efforts to reduce inventory.

In January-February 2026, the national completed housing area was 63.2 million square meters, down 27.9%. Among them, the completed residential area was 46.25 million square meters, down 26.9%, with the decline rate expanding by 9.8 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2025. On the policy level, the 2026 government work report proposed further leveraging the role of the “guaranteed delivery” whitelist system to prevent debt default risks; the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline clearly states that it will continue to improve the basic systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales. Against the backdrop of continuously improving industry systems and the effectiveness of the whitelist system, it is expected that the national completed housing area in 2026 will adjust in sync with new home sales and new starts, moving towards a new balance point in scale.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2026, national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1%, with the decline rate narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2025.

During this period, the scale of real estate development investment was approximately 17.4% higher than new home transactions, mainly due to continuous efforts of local market stabilization policies and gradual restoration of corporate confidence, allowing key projects to advance steadily, and high-quality residential land to be successfully transferred.

Taking the first phase of the Guangzhou racetrack land as an example, this plot was successfully sold for a total price of 23.6 billion yuan after 243 rounds of bidding, with a premium rate of 26.7%, successfully achieving Guangzhou’s expectation of “racing ahead, winning at the start” in land transfer.

In 2026, it is expected that the real estate industry will steadily recover and continue to stabilize.

On the policy level, both the central and local governments will continue to work to stabilize the market by implementing city-specific policies, optimizing the supply of affordable housing, and reducing home purchase costs to release housing demand.

In this context, new home sales are expected to accelerate stabilization in the second half of the year, with the demand side continuously receiving policy support. The scale of new starts will remain at a reasonable low level, balancing inventory reduction with high-quality new supply, promoting a year-on-year decline in unsold area. Relying on the interest rate advantage under a relaxed financing environment and optimizing supply-demand relationships, housing prices are expected to further stabilize.

At the same time, the scale of development investment will again be lower than new home sales, with the industry’s “cash flow” maintaining positive growth, gradually boosting confidence on the supply side, and moving towards a new model of stable and healthy development overall.