Polymarket "U.S. Department of Homeland Security closure lasting over 60 days" probability rises to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Watch Channel monitoring shows that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary Homeland Security appropriations bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, and has sent it to the Senate. The Polymarket probability for “Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting 48 days or more” rose to 92%, up 31% over 24 hours; “Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting 52 days or more” rose to 54%, up 12% over 24 hours; and “Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting 60 days or more” rose to 75%, up 37% over 24 hours. As of now, trading volume for the event contract has exceeded $1.1 million.

It is understood that the bill provides each agency under the Department of Homeland Security with funding at a level consistent with the current amount, through May 22, the latest attempt to end the partial government shutdown that began on February 14. The bill passed the House by a vote of 213 to 203; three Democratic lawmakers voted in favor, and the rest were Republican lawmakers. Even so, the bill is expected to fail to pass the Senate and may prolong the stalemate over part of the government shutdown. Before passing the House version of the appropriations agreement, they rejected the Senate version. U.S. House Speaker Johnson said Republicans will not take part in any measures to reopen the border or stop immigration enforcement.

Odaily Seer Watch Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.