First Research: Supply and demand remain loose, and soda ash futures prices decline again

According to the initial research, supply and demand remain relaxed, and soda ash futures prices have fallen again.
On the supply side, equipment maintenance in Kunshan, Jiangsu, and recovery of equipment in Junhua, Henan, have kept the soda ash capacity utilization rate steady at 81.54%. Last week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons week-on-week, a drop of 4.03%. The pending orders for soda ash companies have decreased to 13 days, and social inventory has slightly increased.
On the demand side, new order transactions have been average, with downstream factories primarily restocking low-priced essential goods. Currently, the daily melting volume for float glass has dropped to 144,900 tons, with photovoltaic at 89,400 tons, remaining stable week-on-week. Before the end of the month, one production line for photovoltaic glass is expected to undergo water-cooling repairs, and this week the production line is generally stable, with an estimated production capacity for photovoltaic glass at 625,500 tons.
Viewpoint: Some soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates, but overall supply remains high. The downstream glass industry is still in a clearing phase, with daily melting volume continuing to decline, and soda ash is maintaining an oversupply pattern. Geopolitical factors are disrupting energy prices, and it is expected that soda ash futures prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term, paying attention to changes in energy prices, equipment maintenance conditions, and the pace of downstream restocking.
(The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)