Morgan Stanley data confirms Trump's "big gift": Strait of Hormuz traffic is clearly increasing.

On Thursday, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is a “great gift” to the United States. Data shows that recently, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has indeed increased, which supports Trump’s claim.

On Thursday, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump mentioned in a cabinet meeting that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that this is a “great gift” from Iran to demonstrate their sincerity in negotiations, stating that the negotiations “found the right person.”

Data provided by Morgan Stanley also shows a similar trend.

The investment bank noted that they observed three oil tankers sailing out of the strait on March 26, and they revised the estimated number of ships that passed the previous day from zero to two.

Based on the situation in the past few days, Morgan Stanley estimates that up to 12 vessels have passed through the strait since March 23.

This marks a noticeable increase compared to the record of three vessels passing from March 19 to 22.

After the outbreak of the Iran conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, was nearly completely interrupted. Although the current traffic volume through the strait remains insignificant compared to pre-war levels, the increase in shipping activity at least signals a positive development that could alleviate some concerns among market participants.

According to maritime trade media Lloyd’s List, they have recently tracked over 20 vessels passing through this “safe corridor” since the outbreak of the war, most of which are owned by Greece, followed by India, Pakistan, and Syria.

The report also pointed out that Iranian authorities are handling transit applications on a case-by-case basis, and some national governments (including India) are reportedly negotiating bulk transit arrangements with Iran.

J.P. Morgan’s commodity analysts noted that most of the oil flowing through the strait goes to Asian countries.

Barclays commodity strategist Amarpreet Singh stated in a report that the impact of the Iran war on the energy market is the largest since the Gulf War in 1990. Although the recent increase in transit is still modest compared to normal levels, the change in direction is significant for the market, which is closely monitoring signs of further escalation or initial de-escalation.

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(Source: Caixin)