First Research: Geopolitical situation remains uncertain, PX futures prices fluctuate at high levels

According to the inaugural research, the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with PX futures prices fluctuating at high levels.
In the spot market, CFR China PX prices are at $1207 per ton, down $19 per ton from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, the U.S. plans to cease fire for one month and proposed a 15-point plan to end the Iranian conflict, leading to a rapid adjustment of market expectations regarding the geopolitical situation, with the geopolitical risk premium decreasing. However, the geopolitical conflicts and disruptions in crude oil supply are still ongoing, and there remains significant uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, resulting in high oil price fluctuations.
In terms of supply, the Qingdao Lidong facility has resumed operations, and the Daxie facility has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic PX load this week. The naphtha market is tight, with prices continuously rising, coupled with rising gasoline profits, which compresses PX processing fees. Additionally, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect crude oil supplies, and there is a possibility that PX loads may still be adjusted downward in the future.
Regarding demand, downstream polyester and terminal weaving are experiencing a seasonal rebound, but the impact of high-priced raw materials on polyester is dampening factory production enthusiasm. Some terminals are lacking new orders, resulting in a decrease in factory operations, and negative feedback from the terminals is becoming evident. Major polyester manufacturers are increasing production cuts, leading to a decline in polyester operations this week.
Viewpoint: The geopolitical situation is likely to experience fluctuations, with PX following crude oil prices showing some recovery. It is expected that PX futures prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels in the short term, focusing on geopolitical developments, crude oil price trends, and changes in upstream and downstream facilities.
(The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)