U.S. stocks close|Iran claims nuclear facility attack, fears of escalation grow, Dow drops 793 points, oil prices surge, US dollar surpasses 100

Former President Trump of the United States announced a 10-day extension for the bombing of Iranian power plants, which did not ease market concerns but instead heightened worries that prolonged conflict would impact oil supply and exacerbate global economic shocks, raising concerns that central banks worldwide might enter a rate hike cycle.

Iran stated that its nuclear facilities were attacked by the US and Israeli airstrikes, including a nuclear facility equipped with a heavy water reactor and a production plant for uranium processing material known as “yellowcake.” Iran’s two largest steel mills were also hit, and Iranian officials indicated considerations to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; the conflict threatens to escalate, leading to a rise in long-term US bond yields, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 900 points on Friday.

The Dow closed at 45,166 points, down 793 points, with the S&P 500 falling 1.67% and the Nasdaq dropping 2.15%. Shares of Meta and Amazon fell 4%, and Tesla declined by 2.8%.

Spot gold prices rebounded by as much as 4.09%, reaching $4,554.93. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was reported at 4.433%, the highest in over 8 months; the yield on the 20-year Treasury bond even surpassed 5%, marking the first time since last July.

Oil prices initially fell but then rebounded, with New York futures oil dropping 2.54% before closing up 5.46% at $99.64, while Brent futures oil rose 4.22% to close at $112.57.

Funds continued to flow into the dollar as a safe haven, with the dollar index rising above 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) noted that, from a tactical standpoint, it maintains a neutral stance on the dollar, considering that the US, as the world’s largest net energy exporter, enjoys more favorable trade conditions amid the current energy crisis, while also reflecting the dollar’s defensive asset status during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, we believe the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates compared to the past, with the baseline scenario expecting at most one rate cut by 2026, down from the previous expectation of one to two cuts.

The bank anticipates that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually resume the trend of diversifying away from the dollar, applying moderate downward pressure on the dollar and causing it to weaken against certain major currencies. This outlook reflects the market’s continued uncertainty about the sustainability of US policies and finances, while other economies such as Australia and China show relatively improved prospects. However, the upside risk for the dollar remains, and the longer the disruption in energy supply lasts, the more pronounced that risk becomes.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted on social media on Friday that the Non-Proliferation Treaty has not brought Iran any substantial benefits. Rezaei also pointed out that IAEA Director General Grossi’s claim that the only way to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program is through nuclear bombing is provocative and dangerous.

Pierre Wunsch, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council and Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, stated that if the Iranian conflict is not resolved by June, the ECB may have to consider raising interest rates.

Pierre Wunsch stated that if the Iranian conflict is not resolved by June, the ECB may have to consider raising interest rates.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【18:29】Trump extends ultimatum deadline by 10 days; Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. The dollar and long-term Treasury yields rise together.

【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points, at 46,407 points, S&P futures up 29 points, at 6,554 points, Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5%, at 23,905 points.

【15:11】Oil prices mixed, with New York futures oil down 0.3%, at $94.24, and Brent futures oil up nearly 0.1%, at $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures gold at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.

【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for scattered storage; chip stocks – Morgan Stanley describes it as “another DeepSeek moment.” Analysts say it benefits cloud service giants.

【11:26】【Dollar Bills】Trump’s signature to appear on the new U.S. dollar, breaking a 165-year presidential tradition.

【11:15】【Yen Trends】Yen at 4.91 against Hong Kong dollar; Japan’s Finance Minister Kiyotaka Akagi hints at possible market intervention.

【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.

【10:49】【U.S. Interest Rates】Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Rising energy prices have limited impact on inflation; current rate stance appropriate.

【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s U.S. promotion generates over $100 million in revenue in six weeks, with plans to expand to more countries in the coming weeks.

【10:07】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices recover some ground as Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran; Turkey’s central bank sells off over $8 billion in gold, exacerbating downward pressure on gold prices.

【10:06】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Deadline for negotiations extended to April 6; “Iranian representatives politely requested 7 days; I gave them 10 days.” (Continually updated)

【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises monthly fees for all U.S. subscribers, with increases of up to 12%.

【09:28】【New IPOs】Anthropic reportedly considering an IPO as early as October, aiming to raise over $60 billion.

【08:47】【New IPOs】SpaceX reportedly planning to hold an investor briefing in April, intending to allocate up to 30% of IPO shares to retail investors.

【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri undergoes a “major overhaul”; reports suggest Apple plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.

$1 or less for March 26 U.S. stock market conditions====

Thursday: Trump extends bombing of Iranian power plants by 10 days; oil prices ride a rollercoaster

Former President Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my pause of the destruction period for the power plant for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the false news media and others spreading contrary misinformation, discussions are progressing very smoothly.”

Brent futures oil once evaporated a 7% gain, but due to the information still indicating that the Strait of Hormuz faces an additional 10 days of blockade, oil prices surged again by 5% to $107.

Immediate look at U.S. stock market close:

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Track all markets on TradingView

Concerns about inflation persist, with the yield on the US 10-year bond rising to 4.412%, an increase of 0.079%. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points at 45,960 points, with the S&P down 1.7% at 6,477 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.4% at 21,408 points.

Trump stated in a cabinet meeting that the U.S. would continue to strike them until Iran reaches an agreement to end the conflict. He confirmed in the meeting that the U.S. still plans to keep the Iranian war lasting only four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by the Iranian negotiating representatives was the allowance for at least 8 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump indicated that these vessels passing through the strait sent a signal to the U.S., showing that the negotiating representatives were indicating, “We are real and reliable.” Trump said these oil tankers may be flying the Pakistani flag. He continued, “I said at the time, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they subsequently apologized for some of the things they said and indicated they would send two more ships.” The White House declined to provide further details regarding the oil tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that the Iranian negotiating representatives were quite unusual and somewhat “weird.” On one hand, they “pleaded” for the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he thought was reasonable. However, they openly stated that they were only considering the U.S. proposals. He bluntly stated that it was a big mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously as soon as possible, or it would be too late, and the consequences would be dire!

He later stated in an interview that the Iranian issue would be resolved soon, not taking too long, and energy prices would fall, even to lower levels. He was uncertain if they would be willing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago and missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of missile and missile launch facilities, and that Iran was supposed to use nuclear weapons against Israel, other countries in the region, and the U.S.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency cited sources stating that Iran formally responded to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire agreement containing 15 points on Wednesday evening (25th) and is awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that enemy aggression and terrorist actions must cease, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not reoccur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented across all fronts and against all resistance organizations involved in this battle throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed its participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting the U.S. in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.

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Schroeder noted that the situation in the Iranian conflict still has various possibilities, making the economic and financial market outlook difficult to predict: if oil prices are above $120 per barrel versus below $90 per barrel, the global economy will present starkly different scenarios. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme situations have increased, while the originally moderate “economic stability” scenario has seen a corresponding decrease in its likelihood.

The bank indicated that, given the inflation pressure brought on by the impact of oil prices, it has raised the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario; however, this assessment remains lower than the probabilities implied by the market. Central banks around the world will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page


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Market Trends:

【23:00】Trump: The Iranian issue will be resolved soon, and energy prices will fall. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.

【21:30】Trump urges Iranian negotiating representatives to take it seriously. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Oil prices up 4%, while gold prices pull back after two consecutive days of rising.

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521 points; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611 points; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241 points.

【14:27】Oil prices up 2%, with New York futures oil at $92.41, up 2.3%, and Brent futures oil at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices pull back after two days of rising, with New York futures gold down 3% at $4,446, and spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429.

【14:19】【Private Equity】Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns of a “fire” crisis in the private market; failure to sell assets may trigger a large-scale write-down.

【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysts say the current rebound is speculation on a ceasefire, expecting U.S.-Iran conflict to remain unresolved in the short term, and oil prices to rise again.

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock President warns investors not to underestimate the risks of the Iranian war; even if “war is declared over tomorrow,” oil prices could still spike to $150.

【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta initiates a new round of layoffs affecting hundreds of people.

【10:47】【Dollar Trends】Morgan Stanley: Dollar rise may be a “bull trap”; the market underestimates the adverse impact of the Iranian war on the U.S. economy, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year.

【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Fed Governor Milan raises interest rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, stating it’s not due to oil prices or the Iranian situation.

【09:28】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices end a nine-day decline; spot gold stabilizes above the $4,500 level, with local gold prices recovering by $1,800 in a single day.

【08:54】【ARM + Chips】Arm rises 8% after hours; will sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, with Meta as the first major customer.

【08:26】【New IPOs】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.

【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will send a big gift today; Rubio and Vance involved in negotiations, with the premise of “never having nuclear weapons.” (Continually updated)

【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks hit hard again; Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace certain departmental functions.

$1 or less for March 24 U.S. stock market conditions====

Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks to negotiate with Iran on Thursday; Brent oil remains steady, Dow’s decline narrows

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. is in contact with Iran regarding a ceasefire proposal, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and intermediaries are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still awaiting a response from Tehran.

Immediate look at U.S. stock market close:

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Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirmed that the U.S. had sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices were cautious; Brent futures oil rose 0.2%, closing at $100.17, while New York futures oil rose 4.8%, closing at $92.35.

Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising 1.6%, closing at $4,475.51, while spot silver prices remained relatively unchanged, closing at $71.2194.

The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.23, and the U.S. 10-year bond yield remained high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks were soft; the Dow dropped 438 points at one point, reaching a low of 45,769 points, closing down 84 points at 46,124 points, with the S&P down 0.4% at 6,556 points and the Nasdaq down 0.8% at 21,761 points.

Trump has delayed the ultimatum by 5 days, but Israel and Iran continue to engage in sporadic attacks. The Prime Minister of Pakistan has expressed willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.

Market sources indicate that Iran has begun charging tolls for some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with fees collected on a per-trip basis, reaching up to $2 million per voyage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” on this waterway. Some vessels have reportedly paid the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanism remains unclear, including what currency is used.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that, after close coordination with Iranian authorities, a vessel flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

According to Israeli media Ynet, U.S. has set April 9 as the target date for ending the war with Iran, meaning there are over half a month available for fighting and negotiations, with Washington striving to end the conflict by the end of April.

Reports suggest that if the conflict ends as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit the area around Israel’s Independence Day on May 14. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating and attempting to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, possibly initiating preliminary contacts in Pakistan this week, though both sides have not formally confirmed.

Additionally, according to reports cited by Chinese state media from Russian sources, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on BBC Arabic that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to bear significant costs for U.S. involvement in the Iranian conflict.

The reports indicate that Trump has demanded hefty “protection fees” from Arab allies, either paying $50 trillion (approximately HKD 390 trillion) to prolong the conflict or $25 trillion (approximately HKD 195 trillion) to end the war, claiming this is compensation for “achievements made.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【22:50】Reports suggest Iran is collecting “tolls” from merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil prices rebound 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan indicates readiness to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil prices rebound 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there a glimmer of hope for U.S.-Iran war? Reports suggest Trump offers exorbitant protection fees: pay $25 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】Reports indicate the U.S. has set April 9 as “End of War Day”; Iran continues to deny this.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264 points; S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596 points; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258 points.

【14:00】Oil prices recover, with New York futures oil at $91.6, up nearly 4%, and Brent futures oil at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain weak, with New York futures gold down 0.9% at $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices likely to be constrained by continued volatility in Middle Eastern conflicts; maintaining a year-end target of $6,250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, guaranteeing a 17.5% return to compete in the enterprise AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky has passed away due to cancer at the age of 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices remain weak after nine consecutive declines; local gold prices drop below $40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this season; production cuts may continue until April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices have fallen over 20% from recent highs, entering bear market territory; Morgan Stanley notes funds are flowing from safe-haven assets into the stock market, which is a positive sign for U.S. stocks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Kawasaki’s early warning to evaluate the supply chain of oil-related products to respond to the crisis; the Finance Ministry reportedly seeks market opinions on potential intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge against impacts through stock holdings.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed officials Daly: U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to address risks.

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will take place from June 8; expected to announce a series of AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian parliamentary speaker denies having negotiated with Trump; British destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean. (Continually updated)

$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market conditions====

Monday: Trump’s statements still questioned; Dow’s gains cut in half to 631 points, oil prices continue to drop by 10%

Former President Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran had led to a pause in strikes on power plants, which stimulated oil prices to retreat and the stock market to rebound. The Dow had risen as much as 1,134 points, reaching a high of 46,712 points; the S&P had risen by 2.2%, reaching a high of 6,651 points; and the Nasdaq had risen by 2.5%, hitting a high of 22,189 points. The closing gains were narrowed; the Dow closed up 631 points at 46,208 points, the S&P rose 1.1% to close at 6,581 points, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4% to close at 21,946 points.

Immediate look at U.S. stock market close:

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Oil prices once fell 14.1%, closing down 10%; New York futures oil closed at $88.13, while Brent futures oil closed at $100.50. Spot gold prices once fell by 7%, hitting a low of $4,099.18, closing down 1.9%, at $4,407.18.

Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist at Macquarie Group, stated, “We remain cautiously skeptical regarding news and tweets about an imminent ‘breakthrough’ this morning,” believing that war is unlikely to continue past April, as Iran’s threats may weaken by then, but large-scale military actions are also unlikely to end within the week.

Trump stated on the Truth Social platform that negotiations with Iran had been progressing well over the past two days, and he instructed the U.S. War Department to suspend all military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for 5 days, contingent on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump later pointed out that the two countries had reached multiple consensus points during negotiations and discussed potential leaders for Iran, with Iran agreeing to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also mentioned that if U.S.-Iran talks were to break down, bombing actions would continue.

However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later quoted Iranian sources indicating that there had been no negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, nor were there currently any. They also stated that U.S. attacks were ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre-conflict state. Another news agency, Mehr, also quoted Iranian foreign ministry sources indicating that Trump’s statements aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for his military plans.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry later also stated that there were some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response was that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as the war was not instigated by Iran.

Trump further responded that negotiations took place on Sunday (22nd) night, emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire to reach an agreement, admitting he did not know why Iranian media would refute his statements.

T. Rowe Price indicated that following the attack on Iran, gold prices initially showed a typical safe-haven surge, but the rise could not be sustained, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the event. Investors did not view it as a lasting geopolitical shock but rather as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift raised real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which were unfavorable for gold price performance.

Gold prices had already accumulated substantial gains prior to the event, limiting the inflow of new safe-haven funds. It is expected that gold price movements will continue to be influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the trajectory of real interest rates and expectations of central bank policies will be critical, along with the need to monitor energy prices and dollar movements. The bank continues to view gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. The structural demand from central banks, combined with unclear policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price movements may remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing actions will continue. Dow rebounded 890 points; oil prices down 10%.

【21:30】Trump delays ultimatum by 5 days, stating he is negotiating with Iran. Dow rebounded 744 points; oil prices down 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies conducting negotiations. Dow futures gains narrow; oil prices down 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks with Iran, delaying ultimatum by 5 days. Dow futures turned up 1,207 points; Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil prices sharply down 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693 points; S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521 points; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, at 23,934 points.

【14:13】New York futures oil up 0.8% at $98.97; Brent futures oil up 0.6% at $112.85.

【14:13】【Gold Price Trends】Spot gold prices fell below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains. Local gold prices dropped another $1,000, retreating from highs by $10,000.

【13:25】【Oil Price Trends】Goldman Sachs warns the oil market faces the “largest supply shock in history,” raising its 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to $85.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA Director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged.” The conflict’s impact is equivalent to the combined effects of the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【Yen Trends】Yen at 4.9 against the Hong Kong dollar; Japanese officials reiterate readiness to take all necessary measures to address currency fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Korean and Japanese markets face “Black Monday”; Korean stocks drop 5% and trigger the 6th “Sidecar” mechanism of the year. The Nikkei index fell by over 2,600 points.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Musk: Terafab project will land in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX will jointly operate.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final ultimatum countdown is 1 day. Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure; oil prices fluctuate. (Continually updated)

【07:30】【External Outlook for the Week Ahead】Continue monitoring the situation in the Middle East; pay attention to Fed officials’ remarks; U.S. March manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday.

【07:30】The Iranian conflict escalates, with President Trump stating to reporters on Friday, “I do not want a ceasefire.” Energy price fluctuations lead to a Dow drop exceeding 600 points; U.S. long-term bond yields reach a six-month high, with the market’s latest expectations of a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577 points; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.01%.

Immediate look at U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stock market dynamics last week; for details, see: U.S. stock market close | Trump states he does not want a ceasefire; Dow falls 443 points; U.S. long-term bond yields at six-month high, with a 40% chance of a rate hike in September.

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