Polymarket's odds show that the Federal Reserve has about a 40% chance of raising interest rates in 2026, which is a stark contrast to the recent market consensus of rate cuts. This re-pricing is mainly driven by accelerating inflation, with oil prices breaking above $110 per barrel and rising import costs intensifying concerns about stagflation. The resulting increase in interest rates and tightening liquidity have put short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, but persistent inflation could strengthen the long-term value of cryptocurrencies as an alternative financial system during periods of economic uncertainty.