European and American stock markets plummet across the board! Hormuz suddenly closed! Iran issues latest warning

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is affecting market sentiment.

Today, after the opening of the European stock markets, major indices plummeted across the board, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index and Germany’s DAX 30 index falling over 1%. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indices also dropped collectively. In the news, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed, and any attempt to pass through the strait will face severe retaliation.

Macquarie Group’s latest report predicts that if the Iranian war continues until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed during this time, oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel. Additionally, according to UBS’s latest global economic and strategy report, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about 20% of global oil and gas flows, and global oil inventories are being consumed at a rate of approximately 9 million barrels per day, expected to hit historical lows by the end of April at the earliest.

European and American stock markets plummet across the board

As of March 27, Beijing time, after the opening of the European stock markets, major indices collectively fell. As of 19:10, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, Germany’s DAX 30 index, France’s CAC 40 index, and Italy’s FTSE MIB index all dropped over 1%. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indices also declined across the board, with Dow futures down 0.44%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.68%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.46%.

In the news, according to CCTV International News, on March 27, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed, and any attempt to pass through the strait will face severe retaliation. The statement also mentioned that any vessels traveling to and from “enemy (U.S. and Israeli) allies and supporters’ ports,” regardless of their destination or route, are prohibited from passing.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 27 local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement calling on the people of West Asia to stay away from areas where U.S. troops are stationed as a precaution against potential risks.

The statement mentioned that U.S. forces in some areas are attempting to use civilian areas as cover, and Iran will continue to take action against U.S. and Israeli-related targets at any location. The statement advised the local population to evacuate from U.S. military bases and surrounding areas as soon as possible to reduce potential security risks.

Additionally, Lebanese “Al-Mayadeen” television cited an Iranian source saying that President Trump’s comments about a “great gift” from Iran are political theatrics lacking factual basis. Iranian media also reported that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the U.S. and Israel.

Previously, Trump revealed during a cabinet meeting what he called Iran’s “great gift” to the U.S.: allowing several tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian source stated that the vessels permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must follow the “safe route” established by Iran, maintain direct contact with Iran, and coordinate in advance regarding their vessels and cargo’s maritime transit procedures. A bilateral consensus has been formed between Iran and the countries of the vessels allowed to pass, with arrangements implemented through formal diplomatic channels and coordination mechanisms, and not disclosed publicly or explained in detail.

Energy consulting firm Enverus’s oil and gas analyst Karl Larry stated, “The market is gradually realizing that there is no clear end date for this conflict. We are about to face another weekend, and the risk of rising oil prices remains.”

Macquarie warns: Oil prices could hit $200/barrel

Macquarie Group’s latest forecast indicates that if the Iranian war continues until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could rise to a record high of $200 per barrel.

Analysts Vikas Dwivedi and others at Macquarie noted in a report released on March 27 that if the conflict persists into the second quarter, oil prices will see a historic surge.

The report states that the likelihood of this scenario occurring is 40%, while another more likely view suggests that the war may end by the end of this month, with a probability of 60%.

Analysts pointed out in the report that if the strait remains closed for an extended period, oil prices will inevitably face significant increases to meet the substantial global demand for oil.

The report stated, “The timing of the strait’s reopening and the physical damage to energy infrastructure are the main factors determining the long-term impact on commodities.”

Macquarie previously warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of April, Brent crude prices could reach $150 per barrel.

Macquarie stated at that time, “Even if tensions may ease, we still expect the price floor for oil to remain in the range of $85 to $90 per barrel and to quickly rebound naturally to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.”

Analysts indicated that the closure of the strait “has led to a significant increase in crude oil and refined oil prices, as the extent of the disruption is quite severe.” Currently, it is estimated that the total amount of oil transported through the strait is 1.5 million barrels per day, far below the normal level of 15 million barrels per day, indicating a supply gap of 13.5 million barrels per day.

It is noteworthy that Iran’s continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is putting severe pressure on the energy supply chains of several countries.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos signed Executive Order No. 110 this week, declaring a nationwide energy emergency. This order grants the government legal authority to control fuel prices and expedite fuel imports from alternative suppliers, effective for an initial period of one year.

Data shows that about 98% of the oil flowing to the Philippines must pass through the strait. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted normal traffic in this waterway, leaving the Philippines’ energy security almost without a buffer.

Additionally, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and Vietnam have successively initiated energy-saving measures or used strategic reserves.

(Edited by: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

     【Disclaimer】This article represents only the author's personal views and is not related to Hexun.com. Hexun website maintains neutrality regarding the statements and opinions in the article and does not provide any explicit or implicit guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content. Readers are advised to use it for reference only and assume all responsibilities themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com