Analyst: Trump's "Weekend Action" Shadow Reappears, Market Nervousness Intensifies

Odaily Planet Daily News: Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard today clarified the passage rules for the Strait of Hormuz: any vessels traveling to and from ports in countries “supporting or allied with the Zionist-American camp” will be prohibited from passing, regardless of their final destination or route. The emphasis on “port affiliation” is crucial here. Previously, the market had envisioned a scenario where crude oil could still flow through the Strait of Hormuz to “friendly countries” like India, thereby compressing the daily shortfall to 2 to 3 million barrels through supply reconstruction. However, from the current statements, it seems the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is preparing for a larger-scale conflict with other Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, weekend risks are gradually rising in the market. Trump’s statements are not always credible, and he has previously tended to initiate military actions on weekends. Currently, the U.S. is amassing military forces in the region, and the market is concerned that after today’s close or early Saturday morning, Trump may strike Halke Island or other Iranian targets. As for whether this will lead to an escalation of conflict or constitute a substantive strike against Iran, there remains significant uncertainty. (Jinshi)