[US Stock Market] Oil prices up 2%, gold jumps 3%, US Treasury yields hit 4.46%, Dow Jones drops 296 points (updating continuously)

Former U.S. President Trump announced a 10-day extension to strike Iranian power plants, which did not ease market concerns. Instead, worries about an extended conflict impacting oil supply intensified, exacerbating global economic shocks and raising concerns that central banks worldwide might enter a tightening cycle. The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds was reported at 4.46%, marking an over 8-month high; the yield on 20-year Treasuries even surpassed 5%, the first time since July of last year.

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran’s Khuzestan Steel Plant and Isfahan Mubarak Steel Plant on Friday (27th), with the power plant associated with the Mubarak Steel Plant also being attacked.

U.S. stock market movements were volatile. The Dow Jones fell by 296 points to close at 45,663 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.7% to 6,432 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 1.1% to 21,177 points.

Oil prices continued to rise, with New York crude oil increasing by 3.6% to $97.91, Brent crude for May rising by 2.4% to $110.57, and June crude oil up by 2.1% to $104.02.

Gold prices rose over 3%, with New York futures gold at $4,543, up 3%, and spot gold at $4,512, also up 3%.

Funds continued to flow into the dollar as a safe haven, with the dollar index surpassing 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) noted that, on a tactical level, they maintain a neutral position on the dollar, considering that the U.S., as the world’s largest net energy exporter, enjoys more favorable trade conditions amid the current energy crisis. They also reflected the dollar’s defensive asset status during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, they believe the Federal Reserve has less room to cut rates than before, projecting only one rate cut at most by 2026, down from the previous expectation of one to two cuts.

The bank expects that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, market trends will begin to shift away from dollar concentration, exerting mild downward pressure on the dollar against some major currencies. This outlook reflects the market’s continued uncertainty regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while the outlook for other economies like Australia and China has improved comparatively. However, upside risks for the dollar remain, and the longer the disruption to energy supply lasts, the more pronounced these risks become.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, please see: Next Page

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Market trends:

[18:29] Trump extends the ultimatum deadline by 10 days. Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. Dollar and long bond yields rise together.

[15:11] Dow futures rise by 177 points to 46,407, S&P futures up by 29 points to 6,554, Nasdaq futures up by 111 points or 0.5% to 23,905.

[15:11] Oil prices show mixed developments; New York crude oil down 0.3% to $94.24, Brent crude up nearly 0.1% to $108.11. Gold prices increased by over 1%, with New York futures gold at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.

[13:25] [AI + Memory] Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for scattering storage, chip stocks. Morgan Stanley describes it as “another DeepSeek moment.” Analysts say it benefits cloud service giants.

[11:26] [Dollar Bills] Trump’s signature will appear on the new version of U.S. banknotes, breaking a 165-year tradition for U.S. presidents.

[11:15] [Yen Trends] The yen against the Hong Kong dollar is at 4.91. Japanese Finance Minister Kaieda suggests intervention in the currency market.

[10:56] [AAPL] Apple unusually grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.

[10:49] [U.S. Interest Rates] Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: The impact of rising energy prices on inflation remains limited; the current interest rate stance is appropriate.

[10:24] [AI + OpenAI] OpenAI’s U.S. advertisement revenue has exceeded $100 million in six weeks; expanding to more countries in the coming weeks.

[10:07] [Gold Price Trends] Gold prices recover some losses as Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran. The Turkish central bank’s sale of over $8 billion in gold adds to downward pressure on gold prices.

[10:06] [Iran Crisis] Trump: Extends negotiation deadline to April 6. “The Iranian representatives politely requested seven days, I gave ten.” (continuously updated)

[09:59] [NFLX] Netflix raises the monthly fee for all U.S. subscribers by more than 12%.

[09:28] [IPO of New Stocks] Anthropic reportedly considering an IPO as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion.

[08:47] [IPO of New Stocks] SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April, intending to allocate up to 30% of IPO shares to retail investors.

[08:16] [AI + Siri] Apple Siri gets a “major overhaul.” Apple reportedly plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.

$1 below represents the U.S. stock market situation on March 26====

Thursday: Trump extends by 10 days to strike Iranian power plants, oil prices fluctuate.

Former U.S. President Trump posted on social media platform Truth Social, stating, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my decision to postpone the destruction period of the power plants by 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the fake news media and others spreading false statements to the contrary, the discussions are progressing very well.”

Brent crude oil once saw a 7% gain evaporate; however, as the information still indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would face a blockade for another 10 days, oil prices rebounded sharply by 5% to $107.

Immediate look at the U.S. stock market close:

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Concerns about inflation continue, with U.S. 10-year bond yields rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%. The dollar index increased by 0.3% to 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points at 45,960, the S&P fell by 1.7% to 6,477, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.4% to 21,408.

Trump stated at a cabinet meeting that the U.S. would continue to strike against Iran until an agreement to end the conflict is reached. He confirmed during the meeting that the U.S. still plans to keep the Iranian conflict limited to just four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by Iranian negotiators was the allowance for at least eight oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that these vessels being allowed through the strait was a signal to the U.S., indicating that the negotiators were showing “we are real and reliable.” Trump noted that these oil tankers might be flying the Pakistani flag. He continued, “I said at the time, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they had said and indicated they would send two more vessels.” The White House declined to provide further details about the oil tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that the Iranian negotiating representatives were quite unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “pleaded” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he deemed reasonable. However, they publicly stated that they were only considering the U.S. proposal. He bluntly expressed that it was a grave mistake and urged Iran to take negotiations seriously as soon as possible, or it would be too late, with dire consequences!

He later stated in an interview that the Iranian issue would be resolved soon and would not take long, indicating that energy prices would fall, potentially even to lower levels. He mentioned that he did not know if he was willing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago, but had missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of its missiles and missile launchers, and claimed that Iran was expected to use nuclear weapons against Israel and other countries in the region, as well as the U.S.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources indicating that Iran formally responded on Wednesday (25th) evening to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire agreement comprising 15 points, awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be executed across all fronts against all resistance organizations involved in the conflict throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed its involvement in mediating between the U.S. and Iran. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran, and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.

Schroder indicated that the developments in the Iranian conflict still present various possibilities, making the economic and financial market outlook difficult to discern: If oil prices exceed $120 per barrel versus scenarios below $90 per barrel, the global economy would exhibit starkly different conditions. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased, while the originally moderate “economic stability” scenario has seen a corresponding decrease in its likelihood.

The bank stated that in light of the inflationary pressure brought about by oil price shocks, the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario has been raised; however, this assessment remains lower than the probabilities implied by the market. Central banks around the world will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, please see: Next Page

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Market trends:

[23:00] Trump: The Iranian issue will be resolved soon, and energy prices will fall. Egypt confirms its involvement in mediation. Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.

[21:30] Trump urges Iranian negotiators to take negotiations seriously as soon as possible. Egypt confirms its involvement in mediation. Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.

[18:15] Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Oil prices up 4%, gold prices drop after two consecutive days of increases.

[14:27] Dow futures down 190 points to 46,521, S&P futures down 29 points to 6,611, Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5% to 24,241.

[14:27] Oil prices up 2%, New York crude at $92.41, up 2.3%, Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices drop after two days of increases, with New York futures gold down 3% to $4,446, and spot gold down 1.7% to $4,429.

[14:19] [Private Equity] Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: The private equity market harbors a “fire” crisis. Failing to sell assets could trigger massive write-downs.

[13:39] [U.S. Stock Analysis] Dow up 300 points. Analysts: The current rebound is fueled by ceasefire speculation, and the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to end soon, with oil prices expected to rise again.

[11:58] [Iran Crisis] BlackRock president warns investors not to underestimate the risks of the Iran war. Even if “war is announced to be over tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.

[11:43] [AI + Meta] Significant AI investments. Meta initiates a new round of layoffs involving hundreds of employees.

[10:47] [Dollar Trends] Morgan Stanley: The dollar’s rise may be a “bull trap.” The market underestimates the negative impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy. The Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year.

[10:15] [U.S. Rate Cuts] Federal Reserve governor Milan raises rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, citing reasons unrelated to oil prices and the Iran situation.

[09:28] [Gold Price Trends] Gold prices stabilize after nine consecutive declines. Spot gold remains above $4,500. The price of gold in Hong Kong rebounds by 1,800 HKD in a single day.

[08:54] [ARM + Chips] Arm rises 8% after hours, will sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, with Meta being the first major customer.

[08:26] [IPO of New Stocks] SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.

[08:23] [Iran Crisis] Trump: Iran will deliver a “great gift” today. Rubio and Vance are involved in negotiations, with the premise being “they must never possess nuclear weapons.” (continuously updated)

[08:01] [AI + AMZN] Software stocks are hit again. Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace some department functions.

$1 below represents the U.S. stock market situation on March 24====

Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks negotiations with Iran on Thursday, Brent oil stabilizes, Dow’s decline narrows.

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. contacted Iran regarding a ceasefire plan, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still awaiting Tehran’s response.

Immediate look at the U.S. stock market close:

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The Iranian authorities denied Trump’s claims regarding behind-the-scenes negotiations, but confirmed that the U.S. had issued messages and proposals.

Oil prices remained cautious, with Brent crude oil up 0.2% to close at $100.17, and New York crude oil rising 4.8% to close at $92.35.

Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold prices rising 1.6% to close at $4,475.51, while spot silver prices remained relatively stable at $71.2194.

The dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.23, and the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds remained high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks were soft, with the Dow at one point dropping 438 points to a low of 45,769, closing down 84 points at 46,124. The S&P fell by 0.4% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.8% to 21,761.

Trump has postponed the ultimatum by 5 days, but Israel and Iran continue to engage in sporadic attacks. The Prime Minister of Pakistan has expressed willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.

Market news indicated that Iran has begun charging some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz a toll, with fees collected on a temporary basis for individual voyages, potentially reaching up to $2 million per trip, effectively establishing an informal “toll” on this waterway. It is reported that some vessels have already paid the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanisms remain unclear, including what currencies are used.

On Tuesday, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that, in close coordination with Iranian authorities, a vessel flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Israeli media Ynet, U.S. officials have set April 9 as the target date for ending the war against Iran, indicating that there is more than half a month available for combat and negotiations, with Washington striving to end hostilities before the end of April.

Reports indicated that if the conflict ends as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around May 14, just before Israel’s Independence Day. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating and trying to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, possibly initiating preliminary contacts this week in Pakistan, but both sides have not formally confirmed.

Additionally, according to reports from Russian media cited by CCTV, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf states to pay substantial costs for U.S. involvement in the Iranian conflict.

The reports mentioned that Trump is asking Arab allies for massive “protection fees,” either to pay $5 trillion (about 39 trillion HKD) to extend the conflict or $2.5 trillion (about 19.5 trillion HKD) to end the war, claiming that this is compensation for “achieved results.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, please see: Next Page

Market trends:

[22:50] Reports indicate Iran is charging tolls for commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil prices rebound by 3%.

[21:30] Pakistan indicates readiness to host U.S.-Iran talks. Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil prices rebound by 4%.

[18:00] [Iran Crisis] Is there a glimmer of hope for the U.S.-Iran war? Reports suggest Trump is asking for a high protection fee: $2.5 trillion to end the war.

[16:00] [Iran Crisis] Reports suggest the U.S. has set April 9 as the “end of war” date. Iran continues to deny this.

[14:00] Dow futures down 258 points to 46,264, S&P futures down 38 points to 6,596, Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% to 24,258.

[14:00] Oil prices recover, with New York crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%, and Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain soft, with New York futures gold down 0.9% to $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% to $4,357.

[14:00] [Iran Crisis] DBS: Gold prices are expected to be constrained by ongoing fluctuations due to the Middle East conflict, maintaining a year-end target of $6,250.

[13:23] [AI + OpenAI] OpenAI reportedly offers private equity firms favorable conditions, with a guaranteed 17.5% return to compete for the enterprise AI market.

[13:08] [OnlyFans] OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky has passed away at age 43 due to cancer.

[12:34] [Gold Price Trends] After nine consecutive declines, gold prices remain soft. The price of gold in Hong Kong falls below 40,000 HKD.

[12:15] [Switch 2] Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this season, with reductions possibly continuing until April.

[11:51] [Gold Price Trends] Gold prices have dropped over 20% from their highs, entering bear market territory. Morgan Stanley: Funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to stocks, which is a positive signal for U.S. stocks.

[11:19] [Iran Crisis] The high-ranking official has ordered an assessment of the supply chain for oil-related products to respond to the crisis. The finance ministry reportedly solicits market opinions on potential intervention in crude oil futures.

[10:36] [AI + Investments] BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge against the impact through holding shares.

[08:37] [AI + OpenAI] OpenAI states in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks. What other risks are there?

[08:08] [Iran Crisis] Federal Reserve official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to address risks.

[07:48] [AI + Apple] Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will take place from June 8, expected to launch a series of AI features.

[06:32] [Iran Crisis] Iranian parliamentary speaker denies having negotiated with Trump. The British destroyer “Dragon” has arrived in the Mediterranean (continuously updated).

$1 below represents the U.S. stock market situation on March 23====

Monday: Trump’s statements remain questioned, Dow’s gains halved to 631 points, oil prices continue to drop by 10%.

Former U.S. President Trump claimed to be negotiating with Iran, delaying strikes on power plants, which stimulated a drop in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market. The Dow once rose by 1,134 points, reaching a high of 46,712, the S&P rose by 2.2% to a high of 6,651, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.5%, reaching a height of 22,189. The closing gains narrowed, with the Dow closing up 631 points at 46,208, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581, and the Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

Immediate look at the U.S. stock market close:

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Oil prices once dropped by 14.1%, closing down by 10%, with New York crude oil closing at $88.13, and Brent crude oil closing at $100.5. Spot gold prices once dropped by 7%, hitting a low of $4,099.18, closing down by 1.9% at $4,407.18.

Macquarie Group’s global forex and rates strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical about the news and tweets regarding an impending ‘breakthrough’ this morning,” believing that the war is unlikely to continue beyond April, as the threat from Iran may weaken by then, but large-scale military operations are also unlikely to conclude within this week.

Trump stated on the social media platform TruthSocial that negotiations with Iran over the past two days have gone smoothly, with discussions ongoing, and he has instructed the U.S. War Department to suspend all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump later pointed out that both countries had reached multiple consensuses during the negotiations, mentioning discussions about Iran’s leadership candidates, and stated that Iran had agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also noted that if the U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations would continue.

However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later reported that Iranian sources indicated that no negotiations had taken place between the U.S. and Iran, and that there were currently no negotiations. They also stated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state. Another news agency, Mehr, later reported that Iranian foreign ministry sources indicated that Trump’s remarks aimed to lower energy prices and secure a timeframe for his military plans.

The Iranian foreign ministry later stated that there were some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response was that the U.S. should become a dialogue partner, as the war was not instigated by Iran.

Trump further responded, indicating that negotiations took place on Sunday (22nd) evening, emphasizing that Iran was eager to reach an agreement, while candidly expressing ignorance about why Iranian media would contradict his statements.

T. Rowe Price indicated that after the attack on Iran, gold prices initially experienced a typical safe-haven rise, but the momentum could not be sustained, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the events. Investors did not view it as a persistent geopolitical shock but were more inclined to see it as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which are detrimental to gold prices.

Gold prices had already accumulated significant gains before the events, limiting the space for new safe-haven capital inflows. It is expected that gold price trends will continue to be influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be key, while attention must also be paid to energy prices and dollar trends. The bank still views gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. The structural demand from central banks, coupled with uncertain policy outlooks, provides some support for gold prices, even though short-term price movements may remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, please see: Next Page

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Market trends:

[22:15] Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations will continue. Dow rebounds by 890 points. Oil prices drop by 10%.

[21:30] Trump postpones the ultimatum by 5 days, stating negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Dow rebounds by 744 points. Oil prices drop by 8%.

[20:10] Iran denies ongoing negotiations. Dow futures gains narrow. Oil prices drop by 5%.

[19:10] Trump: Progress in talks with Iran, extends ultimatum by 5 days. Dow futures turn up by 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures rise by 2.2%. Oil prices plummet by 10%.

[14:13] Dow futures down 200 points to 45,693, S&P futures down 37 points to 6,521, Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% to 23,934.

[14:13] New York crude oil up 0.8% to $98.97, Brent crude up 0.6% to $112.85.

[14:13] [Gold Price Trends] Spot gold prices drop below $4,300, erasing gains for the year. The price of gold in Hong Kong drops again by 1,000 HKD, falling back by 10,000 HKD from the highs.

[13:25] [Oil Price Trends] Goldman Sachs warns that the oil market faces “the largest supply shock in history,” raising its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85.

[13:15] [Iran Crisis] IEA director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged.” The conflict’s impact is the “sum of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.”

[11:40] [Yen Trends] The yen against the Hong Kong dollar remains at 4.9. Japanese officials reiterate “export measures”: will take all necessary actions to address currency fluctuations.

[11:21] [Iran Crisis] Black Monday in Japan and South Korea’s stock markets. South Korea’s stocks drop 5% again, triggering the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism of the year, while the Nikkei index has fallen by over 2,600 points.

[10:56] [AI + Chips] Musk: The Terafab project will be based in Austin, with Tesla and SpaceX jointly operating.

[07:30] [Iran Crisis] The ultimatum is down to one day. Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure. Oil prices fluctuate (continuously updated).

[07:30] [External Weekly Outlook] Continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Pay attention to statements from Fed officials. The U.S. manufacturing PMI for March will be released on Tuesday.

[07:30] As the Iran conflict escalates, U.S. President Trump stated on Friday to reporters, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, and the Dow’s decline once exceeded 600 points. U.S. long bond yields hit a six-month high, with the market’s latest expectation for a rate hike in September reaching 40%. The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577 points; the S&P fell by 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.01%.

Immediate look at the U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stock market dynamics for last week, for details, see: U.S. stock market close | Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire, Dow falls by 443 points, U.S. long bond yields hit a six-month high, with a 40% chance of a rate hike in September.