Are you not performing anymore? Fifteen minutes before Trump posted, the oil market surged with $580 million in betting transactions.

Is AI Asking: Do These Precisely Timed Trades Hint at Insider Information Leaks?

【Author/Observer Network Xiong Chaoran】Traders rushed to bet approximately $500 million in the oil market, and just 15 minutes later, U.S. President Trump posted a social media message claiming “productive dialogue with Iran,” leading to a sharp drop in crude oil prices and triggering severe fluctuations in other assets. Is this just a coincidence?

On March 23, local time, the Financial Times calculated, along with data reported by Bloomberg, that between 6:49 and 6:50 AM New York time, around 6,200 contracts of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures changed hands, with a nominal value of approximately $580 million, occurring just a quarter-hour before Trump’s post.

At the same time, 27 seconds before 6:50, the trading volume of Brent and WTI crude oil also surged. Following the oil trades, the prices of S&P 500 index futures skyrocketed, with trading volumes in that same period significantly increasing.

It remains unclear whether these trades were executed by a single entity or multiple entities. After Trump posted at 7:04 AM, the global energy market saw a sharp sell-off, while at the same time, as investors began to lower their bets on the prolonged continuation of the current Middle Eastern conflict, S&P 500 futures and European stock markets rose in response.

The Financial Times stated that these “precisely timed” trades inevitably bring to mind a series of bets that have appeared on the prediction market platform “Polymarket” over the past few months—those bets focused on when the U.S. would launch attacks on Iran and Venezuela, yielding huge returns.

A market strategist at an American brokerage candidly stated, “It’s hard to prove causation… but you have to wonder, who would aggressively sell futures at that time, just 15 minutes before Trump’s post?”

On March 23, local time, just minutes before Trump’s post, trading volumes fluctuated dramatically. (The left chart shows WTI crude futures, and the right shows S&P 500 index futures) The Financial Times cited data visualization from the London Stock Exchange Group.

According to reports, regarding the market fluctuations that day, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai insisted, “President Trump and officials of this administration are solely focused on doing everything possible to advance the interests of the American people.”

He also claimed, “The White House will not tolerate any government officials profiting illegally from insider information; any insinuation that officials engage in such activities without evidence is unfounded and irresponsible reporting.”

However, several hedge funds pointed out that in recent months, cases of large trades occurring before formal announcements from the U.S. government have, in fact, become commonplace.

A trader from a large hedge fund noted that energy consultants recently observed several large trades whose timing appeared unusually suspicious. Another portfolio manager stated that a series of large and precisely timed trades had generated a certain “frustration” among the investor community.

He added, “Based on my intuition from observing the market for the past 25 years, this is indeed very unusual. It’s Monday morning (March 23), and today there are no significant economic data releases nor any Fed officials’ speeches worth ‘front running.’ For a day with no ‘event risk,’ the scale of this trade seems extraordinarily large… It seems someone has made a windfall again.”

Later on March 23, in response to Trump’s post, Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf posted on social media platform X, denying that there had been any negotiations between Iran and the U.S. This led to a global stock market correction, while also stimulating another round of buying in the energy market.

Qalibaf added, “Trump’s purpose in spreading fake news is to manipulate the financial and oil markets and to try to help the U.S. and Israel out of their deep quagmire.”

On March 23, 2026, in New York, traders work at the New York Stock Exchange. IC Photo

However, a commodity trader told the Financial Times that compared to an already highly active market, the scale of these crude oil futures sell-offs before Trump’s post may not be particularly large, but they noted that almost simultaneously, the TTF index, which serves as the European gas benchmark, showed noticeable fluctuations.

Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at the energy consulting firm Energy Aspects, stated, “The volume of Brent and WTI indeed exceeded my expected levels for that time, but then again, its scale did not reach the level of being ‘abnormally large.’ Therefore, I currently find it hard to connect these scattered clues and clarify the logic behind them.”

He added that in recent weeks, the Brent crude futures and options markets have attracted a significant influx of capital. “From the subsequent price movements, it seems that almost all market participants previously held long positions. This extreme consensus on long bets is often a necessary precursor to such drastic market fluctuations.”

In fact, since Trump returned to the White House, suspicions about his use of power to manipulate the stock market have long been a topic of discussion.

For example, in early April last year, Trump insisted on imposing so-called “reciprocal tariffs” globally but suddenly announced a 90-day postponement for most countries on April 9. Just four hours before Trump announced this tariff policy change on April 9, the president urged on social media to buy stocks, causing the U.S. stock market to surge as if injected with a shot of adrenaline, and the stock prices of Trump’s companies soared that day, approximately doubling the market’s gains.

At that time, the American media generally believed that Trump and his closely associated individuals profited immensely through market manipulation, insider trading, and other improper means.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network, and reproduction without authorization is prohibited.