Super Week Arrives: Global Market Outlook Amid Geopolitical Conflicts and the First Non-Farm Payrolls Post-War

Huitong Finance APP News - Next week (March 30 - April 3), the first key employment data since the start of the US-Iran conflict, signals of policy shifts from the Bank of Japan, global inflation data, and a flurry of statements from multiple central banks are set to intertwine.

From European CPI to Chinese PMI, from G7 energy policy negotiations to speeches from Federal Reserve officials, each event could amplify market volatility against the backdrop of geopolitical conflict.

Some US data will be delayed due to the government shutdown, compounded by the closure of multiple exchanges on Friday, leading to intensified market liquidity and expectations battles. Investors need to position themselves in advance to respond to potential risks and opportunities.

Euro and Japan Inflation Take the Lead, Central Bank Voices and G7 Negotiations Appear Together

On Monday (March 30), Germany will release its March CPI, and Europe will publish its March Consumer Confidence Index. As important indicators of inflation and economic sentiment in the Eurozone, these data points will directly affect expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy.

One of the core highlights of the day is the Bank of Japan’s release of the summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the Bank of Japan maintained the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.75% with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against. Currently, the market expects the probability of an interest rate hike in April to exceed 50%. This summary will reveal the committee’s differences and the details of the interest rate hike logic.

On the same day, the US will announce the March Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. Fed Chair Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts and deliver a speech. His remarks on the current economic resilience, inflation pressures, and monetary policy path will provide key guidance to the market.

In addition, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors will hold a meeting focusing on releasing strategic oil reserves. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict, the meeting’s resolutions may directly impact the oil market’s trajectory.

China and Japan Data Relay, US Delayed Data Release Strategy

On Tuesday (March 31), China will release its March official manufacturing PMI, which serves as a core indicator reflecting the domestic economic recovery and will provide predictive insights for global trade and commodity demand.

Japan will simultaneously publish the annual rate of Tokyo CPI for March and the unemployment rate for February. As a leading indicator of national inflation in Japan, the performance of Tokyo CPI will further reinforce or adjust market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in April.

In the US, the delayed February JOLTs job openings data due to the government shutdown will be released, along with the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

On that day, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak, and his remarks may further clarify the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance.

Oil Inventory and Employment Data Resonance, Manufacturing PMI Defines Economic Resilience

On Wednesday (April 1), the US EIA and API will release oil inventory data. Previously, an unexpected increase in inventory had temporarily pushed oil prices lower, and this data will continue to influence expectations of supply and demand in the energy market.

China will publish the March SPGI (formerly Caixin) PMI for small businesses, which complements the official PMI and comprehensively reflects the structural characteristics of domestic manufacturing recovery.

The US will release the ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Eurozone announcing the revised values of SPGI Manufacturing PMI. The collective feedback on global manufacturing sentiment will provide key insights for assessing the pace of global economic recovery.

In the evening, the US will announce the March ADP employment figures (commonly referred to as the small non-farm data). This is the first March employment data since the onset of the conflict, and it is particularly noteworthy. Additionally, the delayed US February retail sales data due to the government shutdown will also be released.

On that day, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the US economy and monetary policy.

Employment Data Preheating, Central Bank Minutes and Federal Reserve Voices

On Thursday (April 2), US stocks will announce the March Challenger Job Cuts data, along with initial and continuing unemployment claims for the week. A series of employment-related data will provide advance clues for Friday’s non-farm data.

The Bank of Canada will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the bank had maintained its interest rate at 2.25%, and the minutes will reveal its judgments on economic inflation and future policy adjustment tendencies.

2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver remarks, further supplementing the Federal Reserve’s internal policy thinking.

Non-Farm Payrolls Headline the Show, Wartime Economic Resilience Comes to Light

On Friday (April 3), the week’s highlight data will be released, with the US announcing March non-farm payroll data, unemployment rate data, and wage changes. This is the first non-farm payroll data from the US Department of Labor since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, and it is a core barometer for assessing the resilience of the US economy against geopolitical disturbances, inflation pressures, and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Attention can be drawn to articles about non-farm data in the app.

It is important to note that on that day, US stocks and most European exchanges will be closed for a day, while trading for precious metals and US crude oil futures contracts on the CME will be suspended all day; trading for index futures contracts will end early at 21:15 Beijing time; and trading for foreign exchange and US Treasury futures contracts will end early at 23:15 Beijing time.

Risk Warning: Geopolitical and Policy Variables Need Close Attention

In addition to core economic data, investors should remain vigilant about three major potential risks: First, the ongoing escalation or spread of the US-Iran conflict could push up energy prices and global risk-averse sentiment, benefitting safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar;

Second, if the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan releases clear signals for an interest rate hike, or if Federal Reserve officials’ speeches convey a tendency toward policy shifts, it may trigger short-term volatility in the yen, the dollar, and global asset prices;

Third, the concentrated release of delayed US data combined with Friday’s market closure could lead to tightened market liquidity, potentially amplifying market volatility; Fourth, if G7 releases strategic oil reserves in a scale and pace beyond expectations, it could impact oil and related industry chain assets.

(Edited by: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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