Lin Yifu: China's economy is the "certainty" in a turbulent world and will continue to contribute to global growth.

How can China transform its 8% growth potential into real momentum?

By｜Yuan Xiaoli

Edited by｜Liu Peng

On March 26, during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, Lin Yifu, former chief economist of the World Bank and dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute at Peking University, stated that despite the turmoil and challenges faced by the world, China’s continued stable economic growth remains “a certainty for the world” and will continue to serve as an important engine for global growth.

Lin Yifu talks about “involution”: This is not a problem unique to China, the United States faced the same issue back then.

Lin Yifu pointed out that since 2008, China’s annual contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%. In the face of the current instability in the world, he firmly believes that China will continue to provide growth momentum for the world economy.

In response to external concerns about China’s economic issues, Lin Yifu remarked, “The media around the world likes to shine a spotlight on China’s problems and challenges, but in fact, every country has its own challenges and issues.” He believes that the key lies in having the courage to face problems and even more courage to seize opportunities. “When opportunities arise, we must have the courage to grasp them and turn them into reality, enabling sustained economic growth. This growth and development will bring us more space and resources, giving us the strength to tackle more issues.”

In Lin Yifu’s view, the essence of economic growth is technological innovation and industrial upgrading. In this regard, China not only possesses significant “latecomer advantages,” but also has four unique competitive strengths in the Fourth Industrial Revolution: a vast talent pool, an enormous domestic market, complete hardware support capabilities, and the national institutional capacity to support innovation.

He further analyzed that from the perspective of “latecomer advantages,” China’s per capita GDP is currently about $14,000, while developed countries generally range between $40,000 and $80,000, indicating that China still has a vast space to catch up. By absorbing and learning from the mature experiences of developed countries, China can promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading at lower costs and risks. Historically, countries at similar development stages have achieved sustained average growth of 8% for over ten years, and China similarly possesses such potential.

Regarding the new round of technological revolution, Lin Yifu pointed out that the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized by artificial intelligence, big data, and new energy, is thriving, and China has unique advantages in four aspects:

First, there is a sufficient and stable talent reserve. China produces 6 million engineering and technology graduates annually, providing a solid intellectual foundation for innovation;

Second, relying on the world’s largest domestic market, any new idea or product can quickly enter massive application scenarios and form scale effects;

Third, there is complete hardware support capability, enabling the transformation of ideas into actual products at the lowest cost and fastest speed;

Fourth, there are unique institutional advantages that can play an important role in supporting innovation and addressing market failures.

“These advantages give China an 8% growth potential, which is a latent capability that has not yet been transformed into reality.” Lin Yifu stated that to turn potential into reality, multiple challenges must be addressed.

At the international level, the current turbulent situation is leading to rapid increases in oil prices, and the trade war is ongoing, bringing instability to the global economy; at the domestic level, China’s economy is undergoing transformation and deep structural adjustments, dealing with an aging population, promoting green and low-carbon development, and deepening institutional reforms, each of which requires substantial resources. He emphasized, “Development is the core and foundation for solving any challenges.”

The government work report sets the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%. Lin Yifu believes that this target is set based on a pragmatic judgment considering China’s development potential and the actual situation of the international and domestic economic landscape. Under this target, China can not only increase the income of its people and improve living standards but will also continue to contribute at least 30% to global economic growth. He particularly pointed out that China’s growth is open and will also drive economic growth in other countries.

Finally, Lin Yifu stated that if the global situation continues to deteriorate, it may raise oil prices and trigger a global economic recession similar to the oil crisis of the 1970s. “As one of the major global powers and the largest exporter and trading nation, China, as a large economy, has ample space to coordinate and mitigate external shocks to ensure its own development.” He expressed that while he does not wish to see a dire situation, in the face of challenges, “we must have confidence that we can do better.”