Morgan Stanley data confirms Trump's "big gift": Strait of Hormuz traffic is clearly increasing.

On Thursday, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran’s permission for 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is a “great gift” to the United States. Data shows that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has indeed increased recently, providing evidence for Trump’s claim.

On Thursday, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump mentioned during a cabinet meeting that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that this was a “great gift” from Iran to show their sincerity in negotiations, asserting that they “found the right people” for the talks.

Morgan Stanley provided data that reflected a similar trend.

The investment bank indicated that they observed three oil tankers sailing out of the strait on March 26, and they revised their estimate of the number of vessels that passed the previous day from zero to two.

From the situation in the past few days, Morgan Stanley estimates that up to 12 vessels have passed through the strait from March 23 to 26.

This marks a significant increase compared to the records from March 19 to 22, during which only three vessels were recorded.

After the outbreak of the Iran conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, was nearly completely interrupted. Although the current passage volume is still negligible compared to pre-war levels, the increase in shipping at least releases a positive signal that can alleviate some concerns among market participants.

According to shipping industry media Lloyd’s List, they have recently tracked over 20 vessels that passed through this “safe corridor” since the war began, the majority of which are Greek-owned, followed by those from India, Pakistan, and Syria.

The report also noted that Iranian authorities are processing transit applications on a case-by-case basis, and some national governments (including India) are reportedly negotiating bulk passage arrangements with Iran.

J.P. Morgan’s commodity analysts pointed out that most of the oil flowing through the strait is directed toward Asian countries.

Barclays commodity strategist Amarpreet Singh stated in a report that the impact of the Iran war on the energy market is the largest since the Gulf War in 1990. Although the recent increase in passage is still relatively modest compared to normal levels, the shift in direction is significant for markets closely monitoring signs of further escalation or initial de-escalation in the situation.

(Source: Caixin)