Wen Chengkai: 3.24 Gold surges then pulls back, long and short struggle, caught in a dilemma, latest rise and fall analysis

On Tuesday during the Asian trading session, international gold showed a “rise and fall” volatile pattern. After rebounding from lows the previous trading day, gold prices came under pressure again, with selling pressure not clearly easing, highlighting the intense battle between bulls and bears. The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the structural opposition between “rate suppression” and “safe-haven support.” The ongoing struggle between these two factors has led to increased price volatility and unclear direction.

Suppression Logic: Rising Rate Expectations Reduce Gold Investment Value
Reversal of Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Due to inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices amid the Middle East conflict, the market has largely dismissed the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in 2026 and has even started betting on rate hikes. Swap market data shows that traders’ bets on a rate hike before the end of the year have risen to 20 basis points, with the probability increasing from 21% to 27%. However, it’s important to note that there are policy disagreements within the Fed. Fed Governor Stephen Mullan explicitly stated there’s no need to consider a rate hike, maintaining expectations of four rate cuts this year. Major financial institutions also believe the likelihood of a rate hike this year is limited.

U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen: Expectations of rate hikes have driven the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to continue rising, briefly surpassing 4.423%, reaching a new high since July 2025. The attractiveness of dollar assets has also increased, while gold, as a typical zero-yield asset, faces sharply rising opportunity costs in a high-interest-rate environment, leading funds to flow out of precious metals into U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets.

This creates a clear transmission chain: “Oil prices rise → Inflation heats up → Rate hike expectations increase → Gold comes under pressure.”

Support Logic: Geopolitical Risks Drive Safe-Haven Demand to Support Prices
The ongoing escalation and repeated developments in Middle East conflicts remain the key variables influencing gold’s trend, providing a bottom line support. Former U.S. President Trump previously sent positive signals about a possible agreement with Iran, temporarily easing market panic; however, Iran quickly denied this, stating the conflict will continue until full compensation is achieved. Such official disagreements further increase market uncertainty. Notably, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy “artery” globally, remains at risk of shipping disruptions. An escalation could trigger a global energy supply crisis, which limits gold’s downside potential and prevents a sharp, one-sided decline.

Technical Deep-Dive: The Medium-Term Downtrend in Gold Remains Unchanged, Focus on Key Range 4100-4500
Daily Chart: The daily chart shows gold still in a medium-term downtrend. Previously, prices effectively broke below the 100-day moving average, signaling a weakening trend and establishing a bearish dominance. The 200-day moving average near $4100 is the most important medium-term support, acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Although prices have rebounded above this support, upward momentum is weak. Key resistance is at $4530; if prices can hold above this level, the rebound could extend toward $4700. Short-term support is at $4300; if this level is broken, gold may test the $4100 support again.
Indicators show: MACD below zero with expanding green bars, indicating increasing bearish momentum; KDJ near 20 in oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound may occur, but the overall weak trend remains.

4-Hour Chart: Gold shows a clear oscillating and bearish structure. Short-term moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, with multiple rebounds blocked at moving average levels, indicating weak bullish attempts. Resistance is concentrated around $4500-$4540, the core area of short-term battle between bulls and bears. Without a clear breakout, the market is likely to continue weak consolidation. Support levels are at $4300 and $4100; breaking these could open further downside space. MACD remains in negative territory, indicating the short-term downtrend is still ongoing, but caution is needed as oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound.

Overall View: Gold is currently in a “medium-term downtrend + short-term oversold rebound” phase: the daily downtrend remains intact, with $4100 as the key support for the medium-term outlook; the 4-hour chart maintains a oscillating bearish structure, with limited rebound potential. The general assessment is that until gold can break above the critical resistance at $4500, it will likely remain in a weak consolidation phase, oscillating between oversold rebounds and continued declines.

For traders, it is crucial to monitor the effectiveness of the $4100 support and the breakout of the $4500 resistance. In extreme volatility environments, maintain rational position sizing, avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking during declines, and be alert to potential reversals.