Hexun Investment Advisor Yu Xingdong: Is the market stabilizing, or is it just a temporary pause?

How will the market rebound on Friday, and how can individual stocks be pushed higher? Hexun Investment Advisor Yu Xingdong analyzes that today, Thursday, the market was expected to fall and stocks to adjust, yet the number of likes was more than half less than usual. Indeed, the market has fallen quite a bit today, and only about 900 stocks are rising. This is a stark reality. However, I still hope new and old friends can light up the little red hearts to support Wanli. The following content is very important because it relates to tomorrow’s and next week’s operations. Although today was clearly a day of decline, there are also positive signals in the market. The trading volume has significantly decreased, dropping back below 2 trillion yuan from over 2.4 trillion yuan. These data look worrying, but I want to tell everyone that this precisely indicates that the market has officially entered the bottoming phase. Long-term followers remember that during the market’s decline towards 3800, I emphasized that the fall has a process: first, a volume-driven decline, then a consolidation with reduced volume.

Today’s market clearly shows a phase of consolidation with reduced volume, indicating that it has entered the bottoming stage. Next, it will move into what we’re familiar with as the “ground volume reveals the ground price” process, and then it will begin its rebound trend. In our review notes, we’ve also used thousands of words to deeply analyze the market bottom, and one very clear signal is that the trading volume should be within 1.8 trillion yuan. Today, it was 1.94 trillion yuan, very close. Given the current market size, the standard for the “ground volume” is roughly around 1.6 to 1.7 trillion yuan. That means, with continued volume reduction over a few days, the bottom can be confirmed. From a technical perspective, the support at 3800 is very favorable because this level accumulated chips from August to December last year. Even in a pessimistic scenario, there’s still a possibility of a sharp decline, but 3800 can resist for about ten days to half a month. So, at this point, both logically and technically, it supports us to bottom fish. Because of these clear conclusions, last night, Wednesday, we deeply explored some medium-term opportunities, focusing on familiar sectors like commercial aerospace, wind power, and energy storage batteries. The luck was good—commercial aerospace showed a clear rebound today. Tomorrow is Friday, and the market is likely to continue downward to find support, roughly around 3840, or even break below 3800, possibly testing the previous low of 3794, forming a double bottom divergence.

If that happens, the certainty of a rebound will increase. No matter how it moves around 3800 next, the risk-reward ratio remains quite high. For the medium term, you can gradually position during the decline. For the short term, it’s better to hold off a bit and wait another week, until after Qingming Festival or until the second dip stabilizes, then consider re-entry. Everyone can also take this pullback as an opportunity to carefully think about where the next opportunities lie.

(Chief Editor: Wang Gang HF004)

【Disclaimer】This article only reflects the author’s personal views and has nothing to do with Hexun. Hexun’s website remains neutral regarding the statements and opinions in this article and does not provide any explicit or implicit guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content. Readers should only use it as a reference and bear all responsibilities themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com