Iran, latest statement! Of critical concern regarding the Strait of Hormuz! COSCO Shipping Lines: Resuming from today!

Shipping market sends a major signal.

This afternoon, COSCO Shipping Lines announced that starting immediately, they will resume new booking services (standard containers) from the Far East to the following Middle Eastern countries: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Latest news also comes from Iran. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations issued a statement on social media early on the 25th Tehran time, saying that non-hostile vessels, if their originating or related countries do not participate in or support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with announced security and safety regulations, can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iranian authorities.

Additionally, the latest shipping data for the Strait of Hormuz has been released. Market service provider Kpler’s latest data shows that from March 1 to 16:00 GMT on March 23, merchant ships transited the Strait only 144 times, a 95% drop compared to the pre-conflict level on February 28.

JPMorgan Chase, in its latest report, warned that the Hormuz crisis has caused a global daily oil supply shortfall of up to 16 million barrels, with strategic reserves and sanctions exemptions only providing limited relief. The shortfall of about 10 million barrels per day could persist long-term.

COSCO Shipping Lines Announcement

On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines issued a service notice stating that starting immediately, they will resume new booking services (standard containers) from the Far East to the following Middle Eastern countries: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.

In the announcement, COSCO said: “For specific booking arrangements, costs, transportation terms, etc., please contact our local agents, your customer service representative, or contact us directly. Bookings already accepted by us before this service notice was issued for the Far East to Middle East routes will not be affected or compromised by these new bookings under any circumstances. We will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and update you promptly through our official website and customer service channels.”

According to the transportation team at Industrial Securities, COSCO Shipping Lines currently has no direct routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The resumed bookings will be transported to ports outside the Persian Gulf (Fujairah, Hurfakkan, Suhar), then transferred overland to the destination port.

The team also noted that in recent days, the number of ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz has been in single digits, and today, no ships have entered or left.

Looking back, on March 4, COSCO Shipping Lines’ official website issued a notice stating that due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, to maximize the safety of cargo transportation and overall shipping stability, they have decided to suspend new bookings on related routes starting immediately, with the resumption date to be announced later. The affected routes include:

1. Suspension of all new bookings from global to UAE (excluding Fujeirah and Hurfakkan), Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (excluding Jeddah), and Kuwait.

2. Suspension of all new bookings from UAE (excluding Fujeirah and Hurfakkan), Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (excluding Jeddah), and Kuwait to global destinations.

Sharp Drop in March Transit Volume through the Strait of Hormuz

According to Xinhua News Agency, since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, global energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted. Market data shows that since March, merchant ships passing through the strait have decreased by 95% compared to before the conflict.

AFP on the 23rd cited data from Kpler, reporting that from March 1 to 16:00 GMT on March 23, merchant ships transited the Strait only 144 times, a 95% reduction from February 28, the day before the conflict erupted. Of these, 91 voyages involved transporting oil and natural gas, mostly heading east out of the strait. The multinational “Maritime Awareness Center,” led by the U.S. Navy, reported that before the conflict, about 138 ships passed through the strait daily.

AFP noted that ships passing through the Strait on the 23rd appeared to use a northern route, reportedly located north of Larak Island in Iran, approved by the Iranian government.

The UK’s Lloyd’s List reported on the 23rd that “shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be severely disrupted,” with over 20 ships tracked using this route. Previously, the newspaper described this route as similar to the “safe corridor” designated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which visually confirms ships passing through the strait near Larak Island.

Maritime traffic data from the MarineTraffic platform shows that, under supply constraints, about 11 LNG carriers originally heading to Europe have rerouted to closer, higher spot-price Asian ports since March 3.

JPMorgan analysts stated that Iran’s oil accounts for up to 98% of observable oil transported through the Strait, with an average daily volume of 1.3 million barrels in early March.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route for global oil transportation. As the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, over a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strait to destinations worldwide. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day will be transported through the strait.

JPMorgan’s Latest Warning

Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities strategy at JPMorgan, warned in a recent report that the current global oil supply shortfall has reached 16 million barrels per day, with an expected remaining shortfall of about 10 million barrels per day into April.

JPMorgan noted that modeling unprecedented events like the Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed traditional analytical boundaries. Historically, no supply disruption of this scale, geopolitical complexity, and strategic impact has occurred.

The bank believes policy tools can only buffer shocks, not eliminate them. The approximately 10 million barrels per day shortfall is likely to persist.

The biggest uncertainty lies in the duration: U.S. and Israeli signals about the conflict’s length are mixed, while Iran seems to believe time is on its side. More importantly, even if hostilities cease, the Strait of Hormuz may not immediately return to normal navigation.

Meanwhile, Macquarie, a well-known investment bank, stated in a report that if the Strait remains closed until the end of April, Brent crude oil prices could reach $150 per barrel.

Macquarie also said, “Even if tensions ease (specifically after President Trump’s recent statements on negotiations), we expect the oil price floor to stay around $85–$90 per barrel and to naturally rebound to the $110 range once the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.”

Anindya Banerjee, head of commodities and currency research at Kotak Securities, commented, “Currently, Brent crude prices in the spot market may fluctuate between $95 and $110. A drop below $95 would confirm a bearish trend.”

Banerjee added that it’s too early to draw conclusions and that the ongoing crisis’s upward pressure on prices should not be fully factored in yet.

Layout: Liu Junyu

Proofreading: Zhu Tianting