Xiachun: Global Asset Allocation Under the Rebuilding of Order and AI Impact | Financial Tea Session No. 49

Questioning AI · How Will the U.S.-China Economic Landscape Evolve Under the Wave of AI?

Editor’s Note

Currently, the global economy is at the intersection of a “reordering” triggered by major powers’ strategic competition and a “technological shock” brought about by the explosion of general artificial intelligence (AI). With frequent geopolitical conflicts, intensifying anti-globalization trends, and AI technology profoundly disrupting traditional supply chains, labor markets, and capital flows, global capital markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility and reevaluation of asset logic. In this complex and ever-changing macro environment, how should investors navigate known and unknown risks and seize opportunities of the era?

On the evening of March 20, 2026, the HSBC Finance Research Institute at Peking University invited Dr. Xia Chun, Founder and Chief Economist of Zhihui Group and Vice President of the Hong Kong International Finance Association, to deliver an in-depth analysis titled “Reordering and AI Impact on Global Asset Allocation.” He explored macroeconomic trends within major historical cycles, the capital imprints of geopolitical struggles, and new pragmatic strategies and paradigms for investment in the AI era, offering a highly insightful and practical sharing. Professor Ma Linlin, Deputy Director of the HSBC Finance Research Institute at Peking University, attended and delivered a speech emphasizing the importance of asset allocation amid the AI technological revolution and industrial restructuring.

The 49th session of the HSBC Finance Salon at Peking University was held as scheduled on the evening of March 20, 2026. At the invitation of the HSBC Finance Research Institute, Dr. Xia Chun presented a special lecture titled “Reordering and AI Impact on Global Asset Allocation.” The event combined online and offline formats, attracting many attendees from universities, financial institutions, and industry sectors. Over 300 people attended on-site, with 12,520 online viewers.

Professor Ma Linlin’s Opening Remarks

Before the lecture, Professor Ma Linlin, Associate Professor of Finance at Peking University HSBC Business School and Deputy Director of the HSBC Finance Research Institute, delivered opening remarks. She highly praised Dr. Xia Chun’s profound academic and practical expertise. Dr. Xia holds a solid academic background from Peking University and the University of Minnesota, and has accumulated extensive practical experience in global macroeconomics, investment strategies, and asset allocation. Her research combines theoretical depth with high market accuracy. Professor Ma pointed out that with the advent of AI technology, we are facing unprecedented speed and intensity of change, profoundly reshaping global industrial structures and capital flows. In this environment of industrial upgrading and abundant opportunities, significant market volatility and investment anxiety are inevitable. She eagerly anticipates that Dr. Xia’s sharp insights will help clarify macro uncertainties and provide clear, pragmatic approaches to global asset allocation.

Dr. Xia Chun Explains Global Asset Allocation Strategies

At the start of the lecture, Dr. Xia Chun introduced the topic with a personal historical review. He humorously shared his life journey, expressing gratitude for being part of the most fortunate generation after China’s reform and opening-up, witnessing the country’s rapid transitions from agriculture, to industry, to the internet era. However, during his studies in the U.S. from 2001 to 2008, he missed out on China’s fastest economic growth period following WTO accession; later, from 2008 to 2015, while teaching at the University of Hong Kong, he regretted missing the rapid rise of Peking University HSBC Business School. Through this “missed opportunities and witnessing,” Dr. Xia highlighted the current world’s dramatic shifts. Combining Ray Dalio’s theory of large economic cycles, he pointed out that the global economy faces a series of severe challenges beginning with “D,” including high debt (Debt), economic downturn (Downturn), deleveraging (Deleverage), de-dollarization (De-Dollarization), and decoupling (Decoupling). Although China faces pressures from demographic shifts and real estate adjustments, it is accelerating its transformation toward new productive forces, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing. This relative shift in national strength underpins the underlying logic of global order reordering.

Regarding the impact of geopolitical conflicts on asset allocation, Dr. Xia reviewed historical data on the performance of capital markets after major Middle East wars and crises. He noted that historically, localized geopolitical conflicts tend to have short-lived impacts on global stocks, with markets typically recovering within months. However, the current situation has fundamentally changed, most notably with the decoupling of gold and oil prices, and the weakening correlation between commodities and traditional financial assets. Dr. Xia analyzed the strategic importance of key trade choke points. He believes that as U.S. relative power declines and the process of de-dollarization advances, the old financial system centered on the dollar is loosening. The persistent accumulation of gold by central banks is a strong endorsement of this trend. In this context, gold has transcended its traditional role as a short-term safe haven and has become a long-term strategic asset to hedge against the restructuring of the global monetary credit system.

The venue was packed with attendees

On the topic of the current AI wave sweeping the globe, Dr. Xia compared its profound impact to the “Age of Discovery.” He pointed out that although the U.S. leads in AI large models and foundational computing power, its highly virtualized economy and predominantly white-collar workforce mean that AI could trigger large-scale unemployment among white-collar workers in the coming years, potentially igniting a “time bomb” in private credit markets. Conversely, China demonstrates a unique “physical moat” in this AI impact. Due to a lower proportion of white-collar workers in the market-oriented sector, and the presence of numerous institutional barriers, offline service networks (such as food delivery and courier services that are difficult to digitize), and a large manufacturing base, AI in China is more likely to serve as an auxiliary tool rather than a replacement. In the future U.S.-China competition, a peculiar pattern may emerge: the U.S. exports AI intelligence services extensively, while China leverages its comprehensive physical supply chains, cheap electricity, and computing power to form a new trade surplus.

Facing known major power struggles and unknown technological upheavals, Dr. Xia offered investors a strategic asset allocation approach called “HALO.” Drawing from the philosophy of Principles: Life and Work in a Changing World Order, he advocates maintaining a “cunning rabbit has three burrows” mindset—extreme diversification to reduce risks. He elaborated that the core of the “HALO” strategy is to heavily invest in assets characterized by “heavy assets and low obsolescence.” Dr. Xia emphasized that as AI becomes more virtualized and intelligent, physical assets that cannot be moved or dismantled become increasingly valuable. He recommends focusing on traditional hard assets, including minerals and base metals, essential infrastructure for AI computing (such as power grids and electrical infrastructure), physical assets difficult to digitize like roads and ports, and traditional energy sources like oil and coal. This investment logic aligns with the current macro trend of capital shifting toward high-dividend, dividend-yielding, and resource-based state-owned enterprises.

Enthusiastic Audience Questions

During the Q&A session, attendees actively participated, asking questions about Iran’s situation, energy markets, and more. Dr. Xia provided detailed answers, earning warm applause from the audience.

Dr. Xia Chun and Staff Take a Group Photo

This lecture marked the 49th session of the “Peking University HSBC Finance Salon.” Initiated by Professor Bashu Song, Senior Advisor at the HSBC Finance Research Institute, and supported academically by The Peking University Financial Review, the salon aims to enhance the think tank role of the research institute and create a platform for industry elites and senior experts to exchange ideas on financial development and innovation. The format combines “lecture + dialogue,” inviting industry leaders and scholars to share the latest industry insights, development directions, and research methods with students and professionals interested in finance.