[Market Close Watch] Market Review and Trading Recommendations 2026/3/20

(Source: Guoyuan Futures Research)

Daily Price Changes of Major Domestic Futures Contracts

As of March 20, 2026

As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, major domestic futures contracts showed mixed gains and losses. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) rose over 8%, Manganese Silicon increased over 3%, while apples, caustic soda, pulp, starch, and Ethylene Glycol (EG) gained over 2%. On the downside, Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) fell over 8%, Shanghai Silver and Bottled PET fell over 6%, PTA, PX, and Fuel Oil declined over 4%, and Asphalt and Shanghai Gold dropped nearly 4%.

Commodity Forecast Collection

01 Macro News

1. President Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House, defending Iran actions that caught allies off guard, and used this meeting to pressure Eurasian allies again, demanding more support on Iran war and oil price hikes. Trump urged Kishida to “stand up,” citing Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor as an example to justify the secrecy of Iran operations.

2. US initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, indicating a stable labor market and a potential rebound in March employment growth. The Department of Labor reported that for the week ending March 14, initial unemployment claims dropped by 8,000 to seasonally adjusted 205,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 215,000.

3. Middle East conflict spreading to vital energy infrastructure, Trump warned Israel not to attack energy facilities again. He stated he has warned Israel against attacking Iran’s natural gas infrastructure, as retaliatory strikes on energy facilities have caused oil prices to surge, sharply escalating the US-Israel war against Iran. Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar’s LNG hub Ras Laffan Industrial City, causing damage that will take years to repair. Saudi Arabia’s key Red Sea port was also attacked.

4. According to Russian news agency TASS on the 20th, Houthi political bureau member Mohammed Bukhaiti said the group might block the Strait of Mandeb to support Iran. Bukhaiti told TASS that Yemen’s Houthis are considering all options to support Iran against US and Israeli military strikes. If they must close the Strait of Mandeb, they will only attack ships involved in attacks on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, serving as a “water corridor” linking the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Ocean.

02 Energy & Chemicals

【Low Sulfur Fuel Oil】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the contract for Low Sulfur Fuel Oil 2605 fell 8.28%, with long positions reduced by 6,403 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】On Wednesday, Iran’s South Pars gas field was attacked, marking the first strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure in the Gulf region during the US-Israel conflict. According to CCTV News, on the 18th local time, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani posted on social media that the current rule is “an eye for an eye,” and the confrontation has escalated to a new level. The attacked Pars gas field is one of the world’s largest, shared by Iran and Qatar across the Gulf. The previously unbreakable norm of avoiding direct attacks on energy production facilities has been shattered, increasing market fears of disrupted Middle Eastern supply and raising geopolitical risk premiums in crude oil prices. Oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have recently declined sharply. According to the latest data from Belgium’s Kpler, in the week ending March 15, oil exports from eight Gulf countries—including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—averaged 9.71 million barrels per day, down 61% from 25.13 million barrels per day in February. Before this sharp decline, these Gulf countries accounted for about 36% of global oil supply via maritime exports.

【Liquefied Gas】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the liquefied gas 2604 contract rose 8.44%, with short positions reduced by 10,610 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】The strong rally in international liquefied gas prices is directly influenced by Middle East geopolitical factors. According to Xinhua News, Iran’s National Gas Company confirmed on the 18th that facilities at South Pars gas field were attacked by hostile forces, causing a fire. As Iran’s largest liquefied gas production site, the attack on South Pars has raised concerns over supply disruptions. Iran also struck a Saudi oil and gas joint refinery near Riyadh, further pushing up domestic liquefied gas import costs. Regarding domestic supply, latest data shows that in the week ending March 20, the total volume of liquefied gas from sampled Chinese enterprises fell to 536,700 tons, down 14,800 tons (2.68%) from the previous week. A refinery in North China entered maintenance this week, and several other plants reduced capacity, leading to an overall decline in supply. By commodity, civilian gas volume decreased 1.66% week-on-week; in chemicals, C4 volume dropped sharply by 4.29%. Propane and butane volumes also declined, by 0.58% and 2.98%, respectively. Overall, domestic supply reduction supports market prices.

【PTA】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the PTA 2605 contract fell 4.54%, with long positions reduced by 66,939 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】Crude oil and PX prices remain high, squeezing PTA processing margins. Operating rates stay around 80%, near multi-year highs. Major units like Yisheng New Materials (3.6 million tons), Dushan Energy (3 million tons), and others are running at full capacity; Fuhai Chuang (4.5 million tons) has increased load, while Yizheng Chemical Fiber (3 million tons) was shut for maintenance in early March. Downstream polyester filament capacity utilization is at its highest this year, with short fiber and bottle chip operations also rebounding from lows, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang fiber weaving operating above 50%. However, rising raw material prices are reducing downstream acceptance of high prices, causing profit distribution imbalance along the industry chain and potentially restraining demand growth. End-market orders are weak, with poor sales and high inventories hindering price transmission, leading to continued accumulation in PTA social stocks. Expect the PTA market to remain volatile.

【Crude Oil】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the crude oil 2605 contract fell 3.71%, with long positions reduced by 3,551 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】Signs of easing geopolitical tensions emerged. According to CCTV, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on the 19th that Israel “conducted a solo” airstrike on Iran’s natural gas fields, claiming to comply with US President Trump’s request to “pause” further attacks on energy infrastructure. Trump earlier said he had told Netanyahu not to attack Iran’s energy facilities. On March 19, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US did not attack Iran’s energy infrastructure and has allowed Iran’s oil to continue flowing through the Gulf. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil in the coming days. Statements from Israel and the US eased fears of further attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. The IEA began releasing strategic oil reserves to ease global supply tightness. The IEA detailed a plan to release about 400 million barrels, mainly in the form of crude oil, with some refined products from Europe and additional supply from the Americas. The exact distribution and contribution from member countries may change as they finalize details. The IEA’s release aims to stabilize markets and reduce oil prices, also weakening fuel market sentiment.

03 Agricultural Products

【Corn】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, Dalian corn futures rebounded after a dip. In the night session, longs began to reduce positions, pushing the main contract to a three-week low at the start of the day. Later, short covering lifted prices above 2,370 points, closing at 2,387 points, with increased volume of 508,000 lots and nearly 40,000 lots reduced in open interest.

【Key Viewpoint】Current corn fundamentals are mixed, with port prices generally falling, but downstream feed and processing companies’ inventories increasing significantly, indicating good demand. Grain sales at the grassroots level are slower than usual. According to China Grain & Oil Business Network, as of the end of Week 11, North and South port corn stocks totaled 2.639 million tons, down 0.6 thousand tons from last week, a 0.23% decrease, and down 62.47% from 7.032 million tons a year ago. Northeast prices are stable, with slight declines in some purchase prices, but deep-processing prices remain decent, so no obvious impact on the Northeast region. North China saw prices rise then stabilize. Market sentiment is bullish, but traders are cautious, with low willingness to sell, and weather impacts keep delivery volumes low, prompting price hikes. Southern markets and ports fluctuate narrowly, with high-priced deals limited. Feed producers are reluctant to accept high prices, opting for alternative feeds, maintaining a cautious outlook and waiting for market signals.

【Apple】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the main apple contract fluctuated strongly throughout the day, reaching a 10-day high, closing at 10,721 yuan, up 2.92%.

【Key Viewpoint】The apple market shows clear quality differentiation. Buyers mainly prefer high-quality fruit, supporting stable to firm prices, while ordinary grades trade weakly, with some farmers willing to lower prices. Overall, demand is seasonal low. However, approaching Qingming Festival, holiday stocking demand is gradually releasing, which may accelerate inventory clearance and support prices short-term. Due to a lower proportion of premium fruit this season, remaining stocks are at historically low levels, but inventory structure issues persist. Premium fruit shortages push up delivery costs, providing solid support for prices, while lower-grade and off-grade stocks face pressure to clear. In the short term, demand suppression and delivery costs will likely keep prices high and volatile.

【White Sugar】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the main white sugar contract 2605 rose 0.74%, with short positions reduced by 18,066 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】Raw sugar prices are highly correlated with international conflicts, which may target oil and gas facilities, heightening market risk sentiment. Last night, May raw sugar futures broke above 15 cents, closing at 15.42 cents/lb. Unlike raw sugar, domestic prices corrected after the March 9 rally, as the impact of oil price increases on domestic sugar is weaker. As the May contract approaches delivery, fundamentals remain important, so the market shows cautious slight gains. The conflict continues into the weekend, requiring close attention to systemic risks.

【Raw Wood】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, the main raw wood contract 2605 rose 1.29%, with long positions increasing by 1,409 lots.

【Key Viewpoint】From the spot perspective, inventories have finally declined, reducing downward pressure on prices. Fewer high-priced deals have been made, demand remains subdued, and some spot prices have fallen, limiting upside potential. However, rising import costs provide some support. Current spot prices are stable, with firm quotes from traders, but downstream buying interest may slightly decline, and market sentiment is neutral. Future attention should focus on New Zealand shipping, with potential for further production cuts.

04 Metals

【Silver】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, Shanghai Silver main contract fell 2%.

【Key Viewpoint】The sharp decline is mainly due to overseas precious metals experiencing deep corrections overnight, with domestic sentimentally driven short-term declines. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on March 18, emphasizing persistent inflation and limited rate cut guidance, combined with rising oil prices fueling inflation fears, pushing the dollar and US Treasury yields higher, pressuring precious metals. Spot silver on March 18 dropped 4.2%, with risk appetite in gold and silver weakening. Although a technical rebound occurred on March 19, the rebound remains constrained by hawkish policy expectations, indicating ongoing high volatility and valuation adjustments. Short-term, Shanghai silver may continue to fluctuate sharply, with focus on Fed policy, dollar trends, and geopolitical risk re-pricing.

【Gold】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, Shanghai Gold main contract fell 3.83%.

【Key Viewpoint】Internationally, the decline is driven by the Fed’s hawkish stance and reduced expectations for rate cuts, along with Middle East tensions boosting energy prices, fueling inflation re-pricing and upward revisions of global interest rate expectations, which temporarily pressure gold. While geopolitical risks support safe-haven demand at the bottom, short-term markets favor “higher rates for longer” and profit-taking from previous longs, leading to significant retracement. If US Treasury yields and real interest rates stay high, gold may continue to digest pressure; however, amid ongoing uncertainties and risk re-pricing, gold’s medium-term value remains intact. Short-term, watch for stabilization of overseas gold prices, dollar movements, oil prices, and interest rate expectations.

【Tin】

【Market Review】As of 15:00 on March 20, 2026, Shanghai Tin main contract fell 3.25%.

【Key Viewpoint】Recent sharp correction reflects profit-taking after rapid gains and macro risk sentiment cooling, which suppresses the base metals complex. Previously, tin prices surged on speculative funds, but exchange inventories have rebounded since October 2025, revising the “extreme scarcity” narrative. Domestic spot market sentiment has also cooled, with wider discounts and increased wait-and-see attitudes, indicating cautious terminal demand after high prices. Meanwhile, market still weighs supply-side expectations from Myanmar’s restart and Indonesia’s quota increases, which may cause further volatility. Overall, the recent decline in Shanghai Tin is mainly due to high-position profit-taking and sentiment cooling, with continued high volatility expected, and future focus on supply changes from Myanmar and Indonesia, inventory reduction pace, and downstream restocking.

05 Stock Indexes & Government Bonds

【Stock Indexes】

【Market Review】On March 20, A-shares declined in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.24%, Shenzhen Component down 0.25%. The main contracts for IF, IH, and IC dropped 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26%, respectively. Total trading volume exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, rebounding for two consecutive days, maintaining active trading. Electric power, grid, and communication equipment sectors rose against the trend. Internet, hardware, and software sectors declined over 4%.

【Key Viewpoint】The Iran-US conflict entered its third week, causing global equity markets to fluctuate downward. Qatar’s energy company announced missile attacks on LNG facilities in Ras Laffan, causing fires and extensive damage, escalating geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion increased significantly. February CPI and import-export data exceeded expectations, raising inflation expectations. Short-term, stock indices may face volatility; close attention needed to geopolitical developments. Medium to long-term trend remains positive.

【Government Bonds】

【Market Review】On March 20, 2026, bond futures all declined, with the long end leading the weakness: 30-year contract TL2606 at 110.670 yuan, down 0.42%; 10-year T2606 at 108.255 yuan, down 0.09%; 5-year TF2606 at 105.985 yuan, down 0.06%; 2-year TS2606 at 102.524 yuan, down 0.01%.

【Key Viewpoint】Recent escalation of US-Iran conflict, with large-scale US- Israel bombings of Iranian energy facilities, and rumors of Trump considering deploying thousands of troops, create high uncertainty. The Fed’s March meeting kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations but signaling “no ruling out rate hikes” and “aiming to anchor inflation expectations,” which further lowered rate cut expectations. The A-share market declined today, while bonds continued a technical rebound, with some short-term profit-taking. Overall, the market remains bearish, with divergence on rebound heights. Short-term, the short end benefits from increased market rate self-regulation, with over 10 trillion yuan in interbank deposits possibly seeing rate cuts, showing strength. The long end faces pressure from rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the large supply of government bonds (13.89 trillion yuan), which suppresses prices.

Authors:

Zhang Xiao Z0012288, Fan Rui Z0014442,

Liu Jinlu Z0019372, Chai Yinghua Z0015079,

Yang Huidan Z0019719, Huo Ruanan Z0020307,

Han Guangyu Z0020923, Wang Zhaowei Z0022231

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