Galaxy Futures: COSCO resumes Middle East bookings to avoid the Strait of Hormuz; US-Iran negotiations continue to be a game of chess

In terms of spot freight rates, the market remains in the off-season. Gemini Maersk WK14 40-foot high cube container is at $2,700, WK15 weekly report is $2,400; OA early April long-term FAK rate is around $3,200, up $300 week-on-week; PA Alliance first half of April reports $2,500–$2,700, with ONE also at $2,500 and YML around $2,500; MSC WK14 has decreased from $3,040 to $2,840, maintaining $2,840 in the first week of April.

Regarding capacity, as of March 23, 2026, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to five North European ports in May was 240,300/260,200/291,400 TEU, respectively. In the previous period (March 16), the weekly averages for March/April/May 2026 were 240,300/262,200/284,300 TEU. Overall, capacity deployment in March and April has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in May. However, multiple vessels in the OA Alliance are experiencing cross-week extensions.

On the demand side, April is still in the off-season, and cargo volumes have not yet shown significant improvement. Attention remains on shipping companies’ cargo acceptance. Besides major carriers CMA/MSK, COSCO is resuming bookings on the Middle East route, which has sparked expectations of geopolitical easing. However, the company states it is still avoiding the Persian Gulf and is adopting multimodal transport alternatives. Future focus should be on geopolitical developments and strait transit conditions. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are still in a bargaining phase, with conditions difficult to reach, and the US continues to strengthen military deployments in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with ongoing geopolitical negotiations and fuel cost fluctuations. (Galaxy Futures)