Guotai Haitong: February Heavy Trucks Welcome "Spring Festival Month" with Year-over-Year and Month-over-Month Sales Decline

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that in February 2026, domestic heavy truck sales reached 74,000 units, down 10% year-on-year and down 30% month-on-month; natural gas heavy truck sales were 10,000 units, down 37% year-on-year and down 45% month-on-month; new energy heavy truck sales were 11,000 units, up 5% year-on-year but down 48% month-on-month. The main reason for the year-on-year decline in heavy truck wholesale in February is the “Spring Festival month.” The Spring Festival holiday started in mid-February, nearly 20 days later than in 2025. According to industry practice, the month of the Spring Festival is the off-season for heavy truck sales. Only after the Lantern Festival on the 15th of the first lunar month, when manufacturing and logistics resume, will the strong demand for vehicle purchases and the traditional peak season for commercial vehicle sales arrive.

Guotai Haitong’s main points are as follows:

In total, in February, domestic heavy truck sales were 74,000 units, down 10% year-on-year and down 30% month-on-month. From January to February, cumulative sales were 179,000 units, up 17% year-on-year. The “Spring Festival month” is the main reason for the decline in wholesale heavy truck sales in February. The holiday started in mid-February, nearly 20 days later than in 2025. Industry norms indicate that the month of the Spring Festival is the off-season for heavy truck sales. Only after the Lantern Festival on the 15th of the first lunar month, when manufacturing and logistics activities pick up, will the traditional peak demand for vehicle purchases and sales return.

Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, in February, sales were 10,000 units, down 37% year-on-year and 45% month-on-month. From January to February, cumulative sales were 29,000 units, up 12% year-on-year. For natural gas semi-trailer tractors: in February, sales were 10,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and 47% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to February were 28,000 units, up 12% year-on-year. The natural gas penetration rate for heavy trucks in February was 14%, and for January-February, it was 16%. Based on total cost of ownership (TCO) calculations across the lifecycle, for tractors with an annual mileage over 150,000 km, using natural gas is more economical most of the time. Driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies, natural gas heavy trucks, as lower-cost equipment, are expected to see further penetration growth.

Focusing on new energy heavy trucks, in February, sales were 11,000 units, up 5% year-on-year but down 48% month-on-month. From January to February, cumulative sales were 31,000 units, up 54% year-on-year. The new energy heavy truck penetration rate in February was 14%, and the cumulative rate for January-February was 17%. According to TCO calculations, the optimal total cost of ownership for new energy heavy trucks occurs at an annual mileage of 45,000 to 100,000 km. As technology matures and costs decline, new energy heavy trucks have intrinsic growth momentum. The penetration rate in 2026 is expected to continue increasing, with ongoing attention to policies on old-for-new replacements for new energy vehicles.

Investment advice: With the continued implementation of the 2026 “old-for-new” policy for heavy trucks, domestic sales are expected to reach 760,000 units this year, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. The 2025 old-for-new policy has shown good results, and the high base of heavy truck sales, combined with steady domestic logistics activity, suggests limited decline despite the high replacement rate from 2017-2021. Overall, wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units in 2026, up 1.5% year-on-year, with exports likely to maintain growth. Recommended stocks include Weichai Power (000338.SZ), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951.SZ, 03808), Foton Motor (600166.SH), CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ), and FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ).

Risk warnings: Economic growth below expectations, sharp increases in raw material prices.