[US Stock Market Close] Trump extends the deadline by 10 days to bomb Iran; oil prices fluctuate wildly (updating)

U.S. President Trump posted on social platform Truth Social stating, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my suspension of the power plant destruction for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite false reports from fake news media and others spreading contrary claims, the negotiations are progressing very smoothly.”

Brent crude oil once surged by 7%, but due to the continued threat that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for another 10 days, oil prices jumped another 5%, reaching $107.

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Inflation concerns persist, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%. The US dollar index increased by 0.3%, to 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points, at 45,960; the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, to 6,477; the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%, to 21,408.

Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that until Iran reaches an agreement to end the conflict, the U.S. will continue to target them. He confirmed that the U.S. still plans for the Iran war to last only four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” from Iran’s negotiators was allowing at least 8 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. He said these ships passing through send a signal to the U.S. that the negotiators are showing “we are genuine and reliable.” Trump mentioned these tankers might fly Pakistani flags. He added, “I said, ‘Hmm, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of their words and said they would send two more ships.” The White House declined to provide further details about the tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s negotiators were unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “pleaded” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which is understandable. However, they publicly claimed they were only considering the U.S. proposals. He said this was a big mistake and urged Iran to get serious quickly, or it would be too late with dire consequences.

In an interview later, Trump said the Iran issue would be resolved soon, not too long, and energy prices would fall back, possibly even to lower levels. He expressed uncertainty about whether they are willing to reach an agreement with Iran now, noting they should have done so four weeks ago but missed the opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. has thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, and about 90% of their missiles and missile launchers. He claimed Iran was supposed to use nuclear weapons against Israel, other regional countries, and the U.S.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying Iran officially responded on Wednesday (25th) to the U.S. proposal for a 15-point ceasefire agreement and is awaiting a reply. Iran stated that the aggression and terrorist acts by the enemy must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure the war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented on all fronts, targeting all resistance organizations involved, across the entire region.

Egypt confirmed participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Foreign Minister Abdelaty said Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in transmitting messages between the U.S. and Iran and is involved in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

Schroder said that the development of the Iran conflict remains uncertain, making the outlook for the economy and financial markets unclear: if oil prices stay above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy will look very different. Compared to February, the probabilities of these two extreme scenarios have increased, while the “economic stability” scenario, which was more moderate and dovish, has seen its likelihood decrease accordingly.

The bank noted that, given inflationary pressures from oil price shocks, the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario has increased; however, this assessment remains lower than market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the potential for “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

Market Trends:

【23:00】Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil up 4%

【21:30】Trump urges Iran negotiators to get serious quickly; Egypt confirms mediation participation; Dow down 218 points, oil up 4%

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil up 4%, gold rebounds after two days of decline

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241

【14:27】Oil up 2%, NY crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold, after two days of rebound, fell 3% in NY, at $4,446; spot gold down 1.7%, at $4,429

【14:19】【Private Equity】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns of hidden “fire” risk in private markets; unsold assets could trigger large impairments

【13:39】【Market Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysis: current rebound driven by ceasefire hopes, US-Iran conflict unlikely to end soon, oil prices expected to rise again

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate Iran war risk; even if “war ends tomorrow,” oil could surge to $150

【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta launches new round of layoffs involving hundreds

【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan: Rising dollar may be a “trap for long positions”; market underestimates adverse effects of Iran conflict on US economy; Fed likely to cut rates twice this year

【10:15】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Mester raises rate hike expectations by 0.5%, citing no relation to oil or Iran

【09:28】【Gold Trend】Gold rebounds after two days of decline, remains above $4,500; local gold prices rise by 1,800 yuan per tael

【08:47】【Oil Trend】US evaluates impact of extreme scenario of oil prices reaching $200; White House denies

【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: Fed will “ignore” oil shocks, no need to give up on rate cuts; issued AI “doomsday report” in February that unsettled markets

【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】White House announces Trump to visit China on May 14-15; Xi Jinping to visit Washington later this year

【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No signs Iran will send “big gift”; White House Leavitt: if Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will intensify strikes (updating continuously)

$1 or less for March 25 U.S. stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims shot down U.S. F-18; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May

White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced Wednesday that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15; market expects this schedule indicates the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end around mid-May, leading to a significant rebound in U.S. stocks.

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The Dow rose by as much as 594 points amid ongoing war negotiations with uncertainties; it closed up 305 points at 46,429; the S&P 500 increased 0.54%, to 6,477; the Nasdaq gained 0.77%, to 21,408; reflecting strong performance of Chinese concept stocks, the Golden Dragon Index rose 1.86%.

Key stocks: Tesla released a video of Optimus, revealing details about the robot’s development environment, reduction gear, dexterous hands, etc. Elon Musk said Optimus 3 is expected to start production this summer and could reach mass production by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.8%.

Amazon and Nvidia stocks gained 2%, UK chip design company ARM launched its own chips, boosting ADR stocks by 16.4%.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday that its air defense forces shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet over southeastern airspace, which then crashed into the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s Fars News Agency quoted sources saying Iran will refuse the U.S. ceasefire proposal and will continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. They criticized Trump’s indirect negotiations as illogical and unfeasible at this stage. Iran focuses on achieving its goals; only when these are met can the war end, not through a ceasefire. This news caused oil prices to fall slightly, with NY crude dropping up to 6.38%, to $90.32, down 2.2%; Brent crude once plunged 7% to $97.15, then closed at $102.22, down 2.2%.

Iran’s official media, Press TV, reported that the Bushir nuclear power plant was attacked again Tuesday night at 9 p.m. local time. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March, but the IAEA said the reactor was undamaged.

Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. Marine Traffic data shows nine ships have passed through the strait since Monday (23rd).

Spot gold rose up to 2.83%, to $4,602.34; Bitcoin temporarily increased by 2.79%, to $72,013.

Memory chip stocks tumbled against the trend: Micron (MU) fell 3.4%, Sandisk (SNDK) fell 3.5%. The decline was mainly due to South Korea’s SK Hynix planning to list in the U.S.

Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filings to the SEC, planning to issue ADRs within the year, with a potential raise of up to $10 billion. A company spokesperson said that measures to increase shareholder value, including issuing ADRs, are under review but no final decision has been made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

Market Trends:

【22:40】Iran reportedly collecting “passage fees” from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 3%

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 4%

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Possible breakthrough? Trump’s alleged demand for a $2.5 trillion protection fee to end war

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】US sets April 9 as “end of war” date; Iran continues denial

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258

【14:00】Oil rebounds: NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken: NY gold down 0.9%, at $4,400; spot gold down 1.1%, at $4,357

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices expected to fluctuate amid Middle East conflict; end-2023 target remains at $6,250

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, with a 17.5% minimum return, competing for enterprise AI market

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43

【12:34】【Gold Trend】Gold prices continue to decline after nine consecutive drops; local gold price per tael falls below 40,000 yuan

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; cut may last until April

【11:51】【Gold Trend】Gold enters a bear market, down over 20% from highs; Morgan: funds flowing from safe-haven assets to stocks, positive for US equities

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Sanae Takashi orders assessment of oil supply chains amid crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting markets on potential intervention in crude futures

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO warns AI could worsen wealth inequality; investors should hedge risks via stock holdings

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states dependence on Microsoft is a risk in investor documents; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: US economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to respond to risks

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s WWDC26 scheduled for June 8; expected to unveil new AI features

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK’s HMS Dragon arrives in Mediterranean (updating continuously)

$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump’s comments questioned; Dow’s gain halved to 631 points; oil down 10%

U.S. President Trump claimed negotiations with Iran have led to a suspension of attacks on power plants, boosting oil prices and stocks. The Dow once rose 1,134 points, reaching 46,712; the S&P 500 rose 2.2%, to 6,651; the Nasdaq increased 2.5%, to 22,189. But gains narrowed at close: Dow up 631 points, at 46,208; S&P up 1.1%, at 6,581; Nasdaq up 1.4%, at 21,946.

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Oil once fell 14.1%, closing down 10%, NY crude at $88.13, Brent at $100.5. Gold fell 7% at one point, to $4,099.18, closing down 1.9%, at $4,407.18.

Macquarie’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We remain cautious about the early ‘breakthrough’ news and tweets,” believing the war is unlikely to last beyond April, as Iran’s threat may weaken. But large-scale military action this week is also unlikely.

Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations went smoothly over the past two days, and he has instructed the U.S. military to suspend all attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on ongoing meetings and discussions.

He later said that the two sides had reached multiple agreements and discussed Iran’s leadership candidates, claiming Iran had agreed to give up nuclear weapons. But he also warned that if talks break down, bombing will continue.

However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying the U.S. and Iran have not engaged in negotiations and no talks are ongoing. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict status. Another agency, Mehr, cited Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Trump’s comments aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry later stated that some initiatives to ease tensions exist, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the party to dialogue, as war is not Iran’s fault.

Trump further responded, saying negotiations took place on the night of Sunday (22nd), emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire for an agreement, and expressing confusion over why Iranian media refutes his statements.

T. Rowe Price noted that after Iran was attacked, gold initially surged as a safe haven, but the rally was short-lived as markets quickly reinterpreted the event as a geopolitical risk. Investors did not see it as a sustained geopolitical shock but as inflation driven by energy prices. This shift pushed real yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and weakened gold’s outlook.

Gold had already gained significantly before the event, limiting further safe-haven inflows. The outlook remains influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, real yields and central bank policies will be key, along with energy prices and dollar trends. The firm still views gold as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks and uncertain policy outlooks support gold prices, which may remain volatile in the near term.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points; oil down 10%

【21:30】Trump delays final ultimatum by 5 days, says negotiations with Iran ongoing; Dow up 744 points; oil down 8%

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations; Dow futures narrow gains; oil down 5%

【19:10】Trump: Progress in Iran talks, final ultimatum delayed 5 days; Dow futures up 1,207 points; Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil drops 10%

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points, at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points, at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, at 23,934

【14:13】Oil up 0.8%, NY crude at $98.97, Brent at $112.85

【14:13】【Gold Trend】Spot gold drops below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; local gold price per tael down 1,000 yuan, back below 40,000 yuan

【13:25】【Oil Trend】Goldman warns of “largest supply shock in history” for oil; raises Brent forecast for 2026 to $85

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA chief: Over 40 Middle East energy assets severely damaged; conflict impact akin to two oil crises in the 1970s plus 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis

【11:40】【Yen Trend】Yen to HKD 4.9; Japanese officials reiterate “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures to respond to exchange rate fluctuations

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】KOSDAQ drops 5%, sixth “Sidecar” mechanism activated this year; Nikkei drops over 2,600 points

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: Terafab project to land in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX jointly operate

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final day of ultimatum; Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure; oil volatile (updating)

【07:30】【Market Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict; watch Fed officials’ comments; US March manufacturing PMI due Tuesday

【07:30】Iran conflict intensifies; Trump says Friday he “does not want ceasefire”; energy prices fluctuate; Dow drops over 600 points at one point; 10-year Treasury yield hits six-month high; market expects 40% chance of rate hike in September. Dow down 443 points, at 45,577; S&P down 1.51%; Nasdaq down 2.01%.

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Last week’s U.S. stock market activity, details at: U.S. Market Close | Trump says no ceasefire, Dow down 443 points, 6-month high in Treasury yields, 40% chance of rate hike in September