Bitunix Analyst: Mismatch of Energy Control, Monetary Tightening, and War Escalation Pressures Liquidity

On March 26, global markets are simultaneously experiencing the misalignment of three main trends: on one hand, the U.S. is easing E15 gasoline restrictions and accelerating the acquisition of oil and gold resources from Venezuela, indicating an attempt to suppress energy prices and regain control over supply chains; on the other hand, Japan’s interest rate expectations are rising rapidly, and global bonds are being sold off, suggesting that the market has begun to reprice inflation and the path of policy tightening. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East is not only unresolved but is also experiencing continued military escalation under the guise of ‘negotiation’, with the U.S. increasing troop presence and Iran responding firmly, further exacerbating risks to energy transportation and control of the straits. This combination of ‘suppressing energy prices + tightening liquidity + amplifying geopolitical risks’ is fundamentally disrupting the existing pricing framework: energy is being politically intervened, expectations for monetary easing are lost at the interest rate end, and safe-haven assets (like gold) are being mobilized for physical use rather than mere trading, indicating a shift of funds from financial assets to physical and strategic resources, with global liquidity entering a phase of redistribution rather than expansion. For the cryptocurrency market, BTC is no longer dominating the narrative but is passively reflecting whether funds are willing to take on risk. From the liquidation heat map, current prices are locked in a range of approximately $69,000 to $72,000, with a high density of short positions and liquidation accumulation around the $72,000 level, creating short-term pressure; below, around $69,000 to $72,000, liquidity support and long position stacking continue to emerge, forming passive support. The overall structure presents a ‘two-way confrontation’, where price fluctuations are driven by liquidation rather than trends. Until macro uncertainties are resolved, the market is unlikely to form a unilateral pricing logic, and BTC is more likely to remain within the liquidity-intensive zone, repeatedly squeezed, clearing liquidations to complete the redistribution of chips; the true directional choice will depend on whether the three factors change synchronously—whether energy spirals out of control, whether interest rates confirm tightening, and whether the Middle East transitions from ‘threat’ to ‘actual blockade’.