Gold and Oil Strategy: Gold Fluctuations and Bull-Bear Battles, Oil Supply Panic Returns

Spot Gold:

On March 26, news update: International spot gold rebounded significantly on Wednesday (March 25). After hitting a four-month low earlier this week, bargain buying entered the market, driving gold prices up for the second consecutive trading day. With market cautious optimism about diplomatic negotiations in the US-Iran conflict, oil prices retreated from highs, easing short-term inflation concerns and providing some support for gold. After nine consecutive days of decline, international gold finally experienced a technical correction. The market is focusing on the US proposed ceasefire plan and Iran’s response, while also reassessing the impact of falling oil prices on global inflation and interest rate expectations. With geopolitical tensions still uncertain and the US dollar and US Treasury yields remaining strong, gold’s short-term rebound faces limited upside potential.

Technical analysis: In the short term, key support for London Gold is at $4,500 per ounce. If broken, the next support levels are $4,480–$4,450. Resistance is concentrated between $4,550 and $4,600; a breakout above this range could open the way for a new rally. Yesterday closed with a bullish candle. On the daily chart, the price is strongly supported at the $4,000 level. On the 1-hour chart, the price has broken above the 60-day moving average but is being held down by the 120-day moving average, with price oscillating narrowly between the two. Today’s focus is on breaking this range. Short-term trading strategy: adopt a range-bound buy low, sell high approach, avoiding blindly chasing rallies or panicking at dips. Near resistance levels, consider small short positions; if support is broken, cut losses promptly. After stabilizing near support, small long positions can be considered with strict stop-loss placement to manage risk. Medium-term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines until the trend clarifies, avoiding high-level traps. Today’s key levels: resistance at $4,554–$4,580; support at $4,444–$4,385.

Gold intraday trading strategies:

• Short positions: enter aggressively around $4,554 ± $5; more conservatively around $4,577 ± $5; stop-loss at $20; target $50–$100!

• Long positions: enter aggressively around $4,445 ± $5; more conservatively around $4,385 ± $5; stop-loss at $20; target $50–$100!

WTI Crude Oil:

News update: During the Asia session on Thursday (March 26), US crude oil prices strengthened amid continued gains from the previous day, currently trading near $91.40 per barrel, up about 1.2% intraday. Investors’ concerns about supply disruptions reignited after Iran rejected direct negotiations with the US. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian stated on Wednesday that Iran has no intention of direct talks with the US, although top authorities are reviewing the US’s proposed end-of-war plan. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and tight global energy supplies are supporting the rebound in oil prices.

Technical analysis: On the daily chart, international oil prices faced resistance and pulled back slightly, with bullish momentum waning. The RSI indicator approaches overbought territory, indicating a potential correction. On the 4-hour chart, moving averages are flattening, and MACD shows a bearish divergence, suggesting short-term upward momentum is weakening. In the near term, oil prices will continue to be influenced by Iran’s negotiation stance and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran maintains tough conditions or conflicts escalate, prices could test higher levels; conversely, indirect negotiations may lead to a correction. In the medium to long term, persistent conflict risks, along with supply chain tensions and inflation pressures, pose challenges to major economies. Investors should closely monitor Iran’s official statements, mediators’ actions, and technical signals, as geopolitical uncertainty remains dominant. Today’s key levels: resistance at $93.8–$95.2; support at $89.0/$87.2.

Crude oil intraday trading strategies:

• Short positions: enter aggressively around $93.8 ± $0.2; more conservatively around $95.2 ± $0.2; stop-loss about $0.6; target near $89.0!

• Long positions: enter aggressively around $89.0 ± $0.2; more conservatively around $87.2 ± $0.2; stop-loss about $0.6; target near $95.0!