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In reality, the developments in March 2026 show:
- When tensions escalate or there is news of an attack, the crypto market usually drops sharply due to risk-off sentiment.
- When there is news of de-escalation (peace negotiations) or a delay in the attack (postponement of the attack) → crypto recovers quickly.
📌 Real-world examples:
- Bitcoin once dropped from around 72k to 63k within a few hours when the conflict broke out 
- After news of the postponement of the attack, BTC surged above 70k 
- But when tensions returned, the price dropped again 
👉 Short-term conclusion:
Crypto reacts like a risk asset risk asset → very sensitive to war news.