[US Stock Market] Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall back; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow drops 75 points, oil rises 4% (updating)

U.S. President Trump recently extended the deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz to Iran by 5 days. However, only 48 hours remain, and the two countries have yet to reach an agreement at the negotiation table. Trump posted on social platform Truth Social, saying Iran’s negotiators are unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “plead” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which is understandable. But they also publicly state they are only considering the U.S. proposals. He said this is a big mistake and urged Iran to take the negotiations seriously and act quickly, or it will be too late with dire consequences!

In a later interview, he said the Iran issue will be resolved soon, not too long from now, and energy prices will fall back, possibly even to lower levels. He is unsure if they are willing to reach an agreement with Iran now, noting they should have done so four weeks ago and have missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. has thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of its missiles and missile launchers. He claimed Iran should have used nuclear weapons against Israel, other regional countries, and the U.S.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying Iran officially responded on Wednesday (25th) to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement and is awaiting a reply. Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented on all fronts, targeting all resistance groups involved, across the entire region.

Egypt confirmed participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Foreign Minister Abdelatty said Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is helping facilitate messages between the U.S. and Iran and is involved in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

Markets are worried about renewed Middle East conflict, with international oil prices rebounding. NYMEX crude is at $93.02, up 3%; Brent crude at $106.7, up 4.4%. Gold prices, after rising for two days, have recently fallen back, with spot gold down 1% at $4,462.

U.S. stocks opened on Thursday with mixed performance: Dow up 58 points, at 46,487; S&P down 26 points, at 6,565; Nasdaq down 145 points, or 0.6%, at 21,784.

Schroders commented that the development of the Iran conflict remains uncertain, making the outlook for the economy and financial markets unclear: if oil prices stay above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy will look very different. Compared to February, the probabilities of these two extreme scenarios have increased, while the “economic stability” scenario, which was more moderate and dovish, has decreased in likelihood.

The firm noted that due to inflationary pressures from oil price shocks, the probability of an “overheating” economy has increased; however, this assessment remains less likely than market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the potential for “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【23:00】Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil up 4%

【21:30】Trump urges Iran negotiators to take negotiations seriously; Egypt confirms mediation participation; Dow down 218 points, oil up 4%

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil up 4%, gold after two days of gains, latest decline

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points, or 0.5%, at 24,241

【14:27】Oil up 2%, NYMEX crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold, after two days of gains, declines again: NY gold down 3%, at $4,446; spot gold down 1.7%, at $4,429

【14:19】【Private Equity】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns of hidden “fire” risk in private markets; unliquidated assets may trigger large impairments

【13:39】【US Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysis: current rebound driven by ceasefire hopes, US-Iran conflict unlikely to end soon, oil prices expected to rise again

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate Iran war risk; even if “war ends tomorrow,” oil could surge to $150

【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta initiates new round of layoffs involving hundreds

【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan Stanley: Rising dollar may be a “trap for long positions”; market underestimates adverse impact of Iran conflict on US economy; expects two rate cuts this year

【10:15】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Mester raises rate hike expectations by 0.5%, citing no relation to oil or Iran

【09:28】【Gold Trend】Gold after two days of gains, continues to stabilize

【08:47】【Oil Trend】US assesses impact of oil prices rising to $200; White House denies

【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: Fed will “ignore” oil shocks, avoid abandoning rate cut expectations; February AI “doomsday report” unsettled markets

【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】White House announces Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15; Xi Jinping to visit Washington later this year

【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No signs of Iran “sending big gift”; White House Leavitt: if Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will escalate strikes (ongoing updates)

$1 or less for March 25 U.S. stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims shot down U.S. F-18; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced Wednesday that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing; market expects this schedule indicates the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end around mid-May. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday.

See U.S. stock close:

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Dow rose by as much as 594 points, but due to ongoing uncertainties in war negotiations, closed up 305 points at 46,429; S&P up 0.54%, Nasdaq up 0.77%, and the China concept index Golden Dragon Index up 1.86%.

Key stocks: Tesla released a video of the Optimus robot, revealing details about its development environment, gearboxes, and dexterous hands. Elon Musk said Optimus will revolutionize labor and manufacturing economies. Production of Optimus 3 is expected to start this summer, with mass production possible by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.8%.

Amazon and Nvidia stocks gained 2%; UK chip designer ARM announced its own chips, boosting ADRs by 16.4%.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday that its air defense shot down a U.S. F-18 in southeastern airspace, which then crashed into the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s Fars News Agency quoted sources saying Iran will refuse the U.S. ceasefire proposal and continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. They criticized Trump’s indirect negotiations as illogical and unfeasible at this stage. Iran focuses on achieving its goals; only when these are met can the war end, not just a ceasefire. This news caused oil prices to fall slightly, with NYMEX crude dropping up to 6.38%, closing at $90.32, down 2.2%; Brent crude once fell 7% to $97.15, closing at $102.22, down 2.2%.

Iran’s Press TV cited the Atomic Energy Organization reporting that the Bushir nuclear power plant was attacked again Tuesday night at 9 p.m. local time. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March; the IAEA said the reactor was not damaged.

Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. Marine Traffic data shows nine ships have transited the strait since Monday (23rd).

Spot gold rose up to 2.83%, at $4,602.34; Bitcoin briefly up 2.79%, to $72,013.

Memory chip stocks tumbled against the trend: Micron (MU) down 3.4%, Sandisk (SNDK) down 3.5%. The decline was mainly due to South Korea’s SK Hynix’s plan to list in the U.S.

Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filings to the SEC, planning to issue ADRs within the year, with an estimated raise of up to $10 billion. A company spokesperson said that measures to increase shareholder value, including ADR issuance, are under review but no final decision has been made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【22:40】Iran reportedly collecting “passage fees” from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil up 3%

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil up 4%

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Possible signs of easing? Trump reportedly demanding huge protection fees: $2.5 trillion to end war

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】US sets April 9 as “end of war” date; Iran continues denial

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points, or 0.6%, at 24,258

【14:00】Oil rebounds: NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken: NY gold down 0.9%, at $4,400; spot gold down 1.1%, at $4,357

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices likely to fluctuate with Middle East conflict; maintains year-end target of $6,250

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms; 17.5% minimum return to compete in enterprise AI market

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43

【12:34】【Gold Trend】Gold continues to decline after nine straight days of losses; local two-gram gold price drops below HKD 40,000

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; cut may last until April

【11:51】【Gold Trend】Gold enters bear market, down over 20% from high; Morgan Stanley: funds flowing from safe-haven assets to stocks, positive for US equities

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Minister of State Shoei Sano orders assessment of oil supply chain amid crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting markets on possible intervention in crude futures

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may worsen wealth inequality; investors should hedge risks via equity holdings

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI warns reliance on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: US economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to respond to risks

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC scheduled for June 8, expected to unveil new AI features

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK’s HMS Dragon arrives in Mediterranean (ongoing updates)

$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump’s comments questioned; Dow gains halved to 631 points; oil down 10%

U.S. President Trump claimed negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, boosting oil and stocks. The Dow once rose 1,134 points, reaching 46,712; S&P gained 2.2%, hitting 6,651; Nasdaq up 2.5%, at 22,189. But gains narrowed by close: Dow up 631 points at 46,208; S&P up 1.1%; Nasdaq up 1.4%.