[US Stock Market] Trump urges Iran negotiation representatives to take it seriously as soon as possible; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow Jones rises 58 points, oil prices up 4% (updating)

U.S. President Trump recently extended the deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz to Iran by 5 days. However, only 48 hours remain, and the two countries have yet to reach an agreement at the negotiation table. Trump posted on social platform Truth Social, saying Iran’s negotiation representatives are unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “plead” for a deal with the U.S., which is understandable. But they publicly state they are only considering the U.S. proposal. He bluntly said this is a big mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously and act quickly, or it will be too late with dire consequences!

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying Iran officially responded on Wednesday (25th) to the U.S. proposal for a 15-point ceasefire agreement and is awaiting the other side’s reply. Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist activities must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure the war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented across all fronts and against all resistance groups involved, throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Foreign Minister Abdelatty said Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is helping facilitate messages between the U.S. and Iran and is involved in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

Markets are worried about the rekindling of Middle East conflict. International oil prices rebounded, with NYMEX crude at $93.02, up 3%, and Brent crude at $106.7, up 4.4%. Gold prices, after rising for two consecutive days, fell again, with spot gold down 1% at $4,462.

U.S. stocks opened mixed on Thursday. The Dow rose 58 points to 46,487; the S&P fell 26 points to 6,565; the Nasdaq dropped 145 points or 0.6% to 21,784.

Schroders commented that the development of the Iran conflict remains uncertain, making the economic and financial outlook difficult to predict: in scenarios where oil prices are above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy would look very different. Compared to February, the probabilities of these two extreme scenarios have increased, while the “economic stability” scenario, which was more moderate and dovish, has decreased accordingly.

The firm noted that, given inflationary pressures from oil price shocks, the likelihood of an “overheating” economic scenario has increased; however, this assessment remains lower than market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the potential for “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update. See the next page for details.

• Market Trends:

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, oil up 4%, gold down after two days of gains

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241.

【14:27】Oil up 2%, NYMEX crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold, after two days of gains, fell again, with NY gold down 3% at $4,446, spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429.

【14:19】【Private Equity】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns of hidden “fire” in private markets; unsold assets could trigger large impairments

【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysts say the rebound is driven by hopes for a ceasefire, but U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to be short-term, with oil prices likely to rise again

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate Iran war risk; even if “war ends tomorrow,” oil could surge to $150

【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta initiates new round of layoffs involving hundreds

【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan Stanley: Rising dollar may be a “trap for long positions”; market underestimates negative impact of Iran conflict on U.S. economy; expects two rate cuts this year

【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Mural raises rate hike expectations by 0.5%, citing no relation to oil or Iran factors

【09:28】【Gold Price Trend】Gold continues to stabilize after two days of gains, holding above $4,500

【08:47】【Oil Price Trend】U.S. assesses impact of extreme scenario where oil hits $200; White House denies

【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: Fed will “ignore” oil shocks and not give up rate cut expectations; previously issued AI “doomsday report” in February unsettled markets

【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】White House announces Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15; Xi Jinping to visit Washington later this year

【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No sign Iran will “send big gift”; White House Leavitt: if Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will escalate strikes (updating)

$1 and below for March 25 U.S. stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims to have shot down U.S. F-18; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May

White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced Wednesday that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15; market expects this schedule indicates the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end around mid-May. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday.

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Dow surged up to 594 points during the day, but due to ongoing uncertainties in war negotiations, closed up 305 points at 46,429; S&P rose 0.54%, Nasdaq up 0.77%, and China concept stocks (Golden Dragon Index) rose 1.86%.

Key stocks: Tesla released a video of Optimus, revealing details about the robot’s development environment, gearboxes, dexterous hands, etc. Elon Musk said Optimus 3 is expected to start production this summer and aim for mass production by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.8%.

Amazon and Nvidia gained 2%; UK chip designer ARM announced its own chip, boosting ADRs by 16.4%.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday that its air defense shot down a U.S. F-18 in southeastern airspace, which then crashed into the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s Fars News Agency quoted sources saying Iran will reject the U.S. ceasefire proposal and continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. They criticized Trump’s indirect negotiations as illogical and unfeasible at this stage. Iran emphasized that only by achieving its goals can the war end, not just a ceasefire. This news caused oil prices to fall slightly, with NYMEX crude dropping up to 6.38%, closing at $90.32, down 2.2%; Brent crude once plunged 7% to $97.15, closing at $102.22, down 2.2%.

Iran’s official media Press TV cited Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization reporting that the Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again Tuesday night at 9 p.m. local time. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March; the IAEA said the reactor was not damaged.

Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. Marine Traffic data shows nine ships have passed through the strait since Monday (23rd).

Spot gold rose up to 2.83%, at $4,602.34; Bitcoin briefly up 2.79% to $72,013.

Memory chip stocks tumbled against the trend. Micron (MU) fell 3.4%, Sandisk (SNDK) down 3.5%. The decline was mainly due to South Korea’s SK Hynix planning to list in the U.S.

Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filings to the SEC, planning to issue ADRs within the year. A spokesperson said that measures to increase shareholder value, including issuing ADRs, are under review, but no final decision has been made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update. See the next page for details.

• Market Trends:

【22:40】Iran reportedly collecting “passage fees” from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 3%

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 4%

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Hope for Iran war negotiations? Rumors of Trump demanding huge protection fees: $2.5 trillion to end war

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】U.S. sets April 9 as “end of war” date; Iran continues denial

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258.

【14:00】Oil rebounds: NYMEX crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken: NY gold down 0.9% at $4,400; spot gold at $4,357, down 1.1%.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices likely to fluctuate with Middle East conflict; target end-2023 at $6,250

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, with a 17.5% minimum return, competing for enterprise AI market

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43

【12:34】【Gold Price Trend】Gold continues to decline after nine days of losses; local two-gram gold price drops below HKD 40,000

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; cut may continue into April

【11:51】【Gold Price Trend】Gold enters bear market, down over 20% from high; Morgan Stanley: funds flowing from safe-haven assets into stocks, positive for U.S. equities

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Minister Takashi Nakaoka orders assessment of oil supply chains to respond to crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting markets on possible intervention in crude futures

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may worsen wealth inequality; investors should hedge risks via stock holdings

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states reliance on Microsoft in investor documents as a risk; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: U.S. economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to respond to risks

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC scheduled for June 8; expected to announce new AI features

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK destroyer “Rong” arrives in Mediterranean (updating)

$1 and below for March 23 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump’s comments questioned; Dow halves gains to 631 points; oil down 10%

U.S. President Trump claimed negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, boosting stocks and oil. The Dow once rose 1,134 points to 46,712; the S&P gained 2.2% to 6,651; Nasdaq up 2.5% to 22,189. But gains narrowed at close: Dow up 631 points at 46,208; S&P up 1.1%; Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

See U.S. stock close: