The probability of a U.S. recession is rising, with multiple Wall Street institutions upgrading their forecasts

According to Jintou Data, citing CCTV reports, due to the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict adding additional downside risks to the U.S. economy, several institutions have recently increased their estimates of the likelihood of a recession in the United States.

Moody's Analytics model shows that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%;
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast to 30%;
Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young (EY) respectively estimate the probabilities at 45% and 40%.

Typically, this probability should be around 20%. Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that the recession risk is "uncomfortably high and continues to increase," and a recession is a real threat. If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, "the U.S. economy will fall into a recession."

Meanwhile, the core concern among markets is not just the "rising probability number," but the fact that oil price shocks are transmitting from geopolitical conflicts to inflation, consumption, and corporate investment. Although multiple institutions use different models, they almost simultaneously raised recession forecasts, reflecting a growing Wall Street consensus of pessimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy.