The timing of the liquor fair sees a general decline in alcohol prices, with mid-to-high-end products losing ground. Is there an obvious cooling signal in the Baijiu market?

Ask AI · How will the differentiation in mid-to-high-end liquor prices reshape the market landscape?

Recently, the liquor market has entered the “Sugar and Wine Fair” season. As a “barometer” of China’s alcohol industry, the annual Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair holds an important position in the beverage industry, reflecting key industry development trends.

On the eve of this year’s fair, the market has already shown signs of “cooling.” According to the 60th issue of “Bay Area Liquor Prices” released by Nandu Bay Finance and Society - Beverage New Consumption Index Team, after the holiday, demand for baijiu consumption has declined, and the market has entered the traditional off-season. Prices of high-end and sub-high-end baijiu are generally under pressure, with many regions experiencing “overall declines” or “price loosening.”

From the temporary correction of thousand-yuan baijiu to the significant price drops of products like Gujinggong Jiu Gu20 and Jinsha summaries, all indicate that after the Spring Festival peak season, the baijiu industry is facing a critical test of channel destocking and price system restructuring. “Cooling down” and “differentiation” may become one of the core topics of this year’s Sugar and Wine Fair.

Guangzhou: Over Half of Products’ Average Prices Drop, Mid-to-High-End Price Range Declines Across the Board

Statistical data shows that compared to the previous period, most retail average prices of products in Guangzhou have declined. Out of 20 surveyed products, 15 saw price decreases, 2 remained stable, and nearly 3 saw slight increases.

Specifically, the average price of Feitian Maotai decreased from 1,876 yuan last period to 1,816 yuan this period. Previously, due to increased demand for gifts, banquets, and personal consumption during the Spring Festival, Feitian Maotai sales grew, and prices rose accordingly; after the festival, prices have pulled back.

The eighth-generation Wuliangye’s average price fell from 854 yuan to 835 yuan, mainly due to price cuts in some channels, such as JD Liquor World, Hema, Xiaoxiang Supermarket, and Meituan Famous Liquor. Similarly, Guojiao 1573’s average price shrank by less than 20 yuan compared to last period, with prices on JD Liquor World dropping from 980 yuan to 899 yuan, and slight reductions on other platforms like Qixian and Hema, pulling down the overall average.

Additionally, the average prices of Junpin Xijiu and Jiugui Jiu Neican also declined; among products in the thousand-yuan range, only Langjiu and Hong Xifeng saw increases, with Hong Xifeng rising by the largest margin of 176 yuan due to increased dealer channel prices.

For mid-to-high-end products, the average prices of products like Fenjiu Qinghua 20, Gujinggong Gu20, Crystal Jiannanchun, Taste Shede, and Jinsha summaries all declined, mostly within 20 yuan.

Among these, Gujinggong Gu20’s average price dropped from 590 yuan last period to 558 yuan this period, the most significant decrease among mid-to-high-end products. On JD Liquor World, its price plummeted from 660 yuan to 580 yuan, with some dealer channels also lowering prices, leading to a notable overall decline.

Prices of low-end products generally remained stable, with some slight decreases. For example, Xiaohutu Xian’s average price fell from 165 yuan to 155 yuan.

Shenzhen: Most Famous Liquors Slightly Decline, Summaries See Largest Drop

After entering the off-season, terminal retail prices of related products in Shenzhen also showed signs of “softening.” During surveys, reporters from Nandu Bay Finance and Society observed that liquor prices in Shenzhen almost all declined.

Data shows that compared to last period, high-end and thousand-yuan products’ prices decreased, with declines ranging from single digits to tens of yuan. The largest drop was for Guojiao 1573, with retail prices falling by 19 yuan from last period, followed by Gujinggong Gu20, which dropped by 12 yuan. The only product that increased in price was Qinghua Lang, up by 5 yuan.

Mid-to-high-end products also saw price declines, with Jinsha summaries dropping significantly. Specifically, its retail average price was 492.1 yuan per bottle, down 51 yuan from last period. The sharp decline was mainly due to large discounts on online platforms like JD Liquor World and Weima Songjiu in Shenzhen, which offered prices around 420 yuan, with some independent liquor stores and Meituan platforms selling Jinsha summaries as low as 350 yuan per bottle.

Other products, such as Fenjiu Qinghua 20, decreased by about 13 yuan; Taste Shede by about 6 yuan; and Zhenjiu Zhen Fifteen by about 5 yuan compared to last period. Due to the large price drops, Zhen Fifteen has shifted from market channels to “Alliance Merchant” tiers during product upgrades.

Additionally, the retail price of Shui Jing Fang Jingtai rebounded to 540 yuan per bottle in Shenzhen, mainly because CR Vanguard channels in Shenzhen priced it at 649 yuan. Online, on JD Liquor World in Shenzhen, the price has fallen below 400 yuan, at 398 yuan.

As a price “benchmark,” Feitian Maotai’s retail price in Shenzhen was 1,855.54 yuan per bottle this period, with an online average of 1,875.11 yuan. Except for Weima Songjiu and Meituan Famous Liquor, which quoted around 1,650 yuan, other terminal prices ranged from 1,700 to 2,100 yuan; offline, only CR Vanguard quoted 1,699 yuan per bottle.

In response to the recent continuous decline in baijiu prices, a Shenzhen liquor merchant told Nandu Bay Finance and Society that this is normal for the off-season. However, from inventory data, top brands like Maotai and Wuliangye are turning over stock quickly, with some distributors’ inventories nearly depleted. Still, high-end and sub-high-end products’ inventory pressures remain significant.

Foshan: Most Products Price Decline, Gu20 Price Drop Significantly, Qinghua Lang Rebounds

During visits, reporters from Nandu Bay Finance and Society noted that in Foshan, some products saw large price increases, but most baijiu products also showed signs of price declines.

For Feitian Maotai, the retail average in Foshan was 1,827.72 yuan per bottle, with many online outlets showing sold-out signs. Local retail platforms quoted prices between 1,700 and 1,900 yuan. Offline, only Yongwang Supermarket listed it at 2,099 yuan, up 100 yuan from 1,999 yuan previously. Industry analysts believe that the continued strong sales of Feitian Maotai have boosted consumer enthusiasm, prompting some outlets or platforms to adjust retail prices.

The most notable price increase was for Langjiu Qinghua Lang, which in Foshan was priced at 865 yuan, up over 45 yuan from last period. The main reason was that offline platforms quoted over 1,000 yuan per bottle, offsetting online price declines. Local channels like Xiaoxiang Supermarket, Weima Songjiu, and Jiuxiaoer listed Qinghua Lang between 739 and 799 yuan, pulling down its online performance.

Among high-end products, Yanghe Mengzhilan M6+ increased by about 11 yuan to 688 yuan per bottle, with many online channels in Foshan showing no stock.

Other products, however, saw price drops. For example, Wuliangye in the thousand-yuan range declined slightly; Guojiao 1573’s price remained stable at around 596.25 yuan, down more than 48 yuan, mainly because several online channels that previously listed prices above 600 yuan lowered their prices, with the lowest suggested retail price dropping to 530 yuan per bottle.

In the mid-to-high-end segment, Taste Shede was priced at 369 yuan, down about 17 yuan from last period.

Industry analysts believe that Foshan’s overall baijiu price trend closely mirrors the industry trend: after entering the off-season, most products need to be sold at discounts, with only a few high-end brands still seeing some consumer stockpiling.

Dongguan: Most Prices Decline, Mid-to-Low-End Stable

In the current period, Dongguan’s liquor prices before the Spring Sugar and Wine Fair showed overall pressure, with most high-end and mid-high-end products declining.

Compared to last period, among 18 comparable baijiu products, 11 saw price decreases, 5 increased, and 2 remained stable. High-end baijiu faced significant pressure, with Feitian Maotai’s average price dropping from 1,881.1 yuan to 1,824.4 yuan, a decrease of 56.7 yuan (3.01%). Wuliangye 8th Gen Puwu declined from 859.4 to 851.8 yuan; Guojiao 1573 fell by 16.6 yuan to 919.8 yuan. These adjustments are related to some offline shortages and online platform price reductions.

Mid-to-high-end products showed mixed movements, with some brands slightly rising against the trend. Langjiu Qinghua Lang’s average price increased slightly from 782 to 784.5 yuan; Jiannanchun Shuijingjian remained stable at 423.8 yuan; Yanghe Mengzhilan M6+ rose about 11 yuan to 688 yuan. Brands like Zhenjiu Zhen Fifteen and Jinsha summaries also saw small increases. Meanwhile, products like Xijiu Junpin Xijiu and Fenjiu Qinghua 20 experienced small declines of 3-8 yuan.

Low-end baijiu prices remained relatively stable, with some minor adjustments: Jiujiang Shuangzhen’s price held at 19.9 yuan; Shiwanshui Yubing Sha’s average price decreased from 17.2 to 15 yuan; Maopuo Kubo Qiao’s average rose slightly from 238.6 to 243.5 yuan.

Overall, the most volatile products this period were Feitian Maotai and Yanghe Mengzhilan M6+. Many online retail prices and offline terminal prices have narrowed or moved in the same direction, reflecting cautious channel pricing strategies before the fair, with increased market hesitation in Dongguan. Generally, in the off-season, high-end prices slightly decline, mid-to-high-end brands continue to show differentiation, and mass-market products maintain price stability.

Summary:

Analyzing the market data from these four regions before the Sugar and Wine Fair, the trends in Bay Area baijiu prices reveal some current industry directions: on one hand, rationalization of high-end famous liquor prices after the holiday; on the other, intensified competition among mid-to-high-end brands and ongoing price differentiation. Guangzhou’s half of the products’ prices fell, Shenzhen nearly all declined slightly, Gu20 in Foshan saw a “big drop,” and Dongguan’s overall market was under pressure—these reflect cautious inventory management by channel merchants and consumers’ higher pursuit of value.

As the fair begins, how liquor companies will use new product launches and channel policy adjustments to stabilize market confidence, and how they will respond to changing consumer demand, will be key focuses. It is foreseeable that “destocking, stabilizing prices, and expanding scenarios” will be the main themes of this year’s baijiu market. In a stock competition era, relying solely on high-end price hikes for growth may face challenges; activating mass consumption and creating new growth points will be crucial for liquor companies to navigate cycles and achieve sustainable development.

Produced by: Nandu · Bay Finance and Society

Planning: Liu Jiangtao, Wang Ying

Overall Coordination: Ma Jianzhong, Chen Nangkai

Execution: Nandu · Bay Finance and Society reporters Wang Jingjuan, Beibei, Qiu Kangzheng