Multiple Institutions Raise U.S. Economic Recession Probability

CycleProphet · 2026-03-26T05:31:44+00:00

Due to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, the US economy faces greater downside risks, with institutions raising the probability of an American economic recession. Moody's analysis shows that the recession probability over the next 12 months has reached 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs estimates it at 30%. If high oil prices persist, recession will become a real threat.

CycleProphet

2026-03-26 05:31:44

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 26 — According to Jinshi Data, due to the prolonged U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict adding additional downside risks to the U.S. economy, several institutions have recently raised their estimates of the probability of a recession in the United States. As of March 25, U.S. sources report that Moody’s Analytics’ model shows the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has increased its forecasted probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young (EY) respectively estimate the chances of a U.S. recession at 45% and 40%. Under normal circumstances, this probability would be around 20%. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that the worrying part is that the recession risk is “uncomfortably high and continues to rise,” making a recession a real threat. If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, “the U.S. economy will fall into a recession.”

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