How long can Trump suppress oil prices?

$10 million barrels of crude oil disappear every day, yet WTI oil prices still stay below $100—this ongoing struggle between physical reality and financial narratives is the core tension in today’s global energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade has lasted over a month, and the US-Iran conflict continues to simmer, but oil prices have not experienced the “super spike” widely expected earlier. Last week, Trump himself admitted, “I thought it would be worse, much worse.” Behind this outcome is the White House’s social media-centered “verbal intervention” system, which has successfully suppressed panic in financial markets.

However, Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas warns that words alone cannot keep refineries running indefinitely. As physical crude shortages spread from Asia to Europe and the US West Coast, Trump’s “narrative weapon” is approaching its expiration date.

According to Bloomberg, industry executives and government officials generally believe that the next two weeks will be a critical juncture for the physical crude market.

Unusual Calm: The Hidden Reality Behind the Numbers

Since the US launched strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz and targeted Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, creating a daily crude supply shortfall of at least 10 million barrels. Based on historical experience, such a level of supply disruption could trigger a full-scale energy crisis.

Yet, the reality is that WTI crude prices have remained below the key psychological threshold of $100 per barrel, currently around $92. According to Bloomberg, the White House has been suppressing oil prices through multiple channels: releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, and ongoing verbal interventions.

Javier Blas notes that this situation has caught the market off guard. Bloomberg reports that market observers generally believe that, after a month of the Strait of Hormuz closure, WTI holding in the $90 range is an outcome almost no one predicted.

TACO Strategy: Weaponizing “Volatility”

Trump’s most creative tool is rooted in a trait long considered a weakness—his unpredictability.

According to Bloomberg, Wall Street has learned the hard way about the so-called “TACO” logic (Trump Always Chickens Out): he repeatedly announces punitive tariffs and then withdraws them. This historical pattern has become a psychological lever to suppress oil prices during the current energy crisis—traders cannot be sure when or if Trump will truly seek to end the conflict, and this uncertainty alone is enough to prevent speculative funds from going all-in long.

The key is that Trump doesn’t need to make actual policy shifts—just to make the market believe he “might” do so. Bloomberg reports that this strategic ambiguity has repeatedly frozen market buying, buying the White House valuable time.

Social Media as a Real-Time Price Regulator

Trump has turned the Truth Social platform into a precise tool for real-time market intervention.

On March 3, amid a sharp rise in oil prices, he claimed, “If necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers.” Three weeks later, the escort fleet never appeared, but this statement effectively suppressed risk premiums early in the crisis, buying the US a crucial window.

When the market realized the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t reopen before the end of the conflict, Trump quickly shifted tone, hinting that the war was nearing its end. On March 9, he said the war was “basically very complete”; on March 20, he signaled, “We are very close to achieving our goals and considering ending our great military operations in the Middle East.”

Over the weekend, he issued a 48-hour final ultimatum to Tehran, demanding the reopening of the Strait, or else he threatened to bomb Iran’s domestic power infrastructure. According to CCTV News, on March 21, President Trump posted on Truth Social that if Iran failed to fully open the Strait within 48 hours without threats, the US would strike and destroy Iran’s power plants, starting with the largest one.

Then, before most financial markets opened on Monday, he issued the most significant verbal intervention yet: “They are talking to us, and they are making sense.”

Bloomberg reports that Iran has not confirmed negotiations are ongoing, only acknowledging some exchange of information. This unilateral statement still effectively calmed the markets’ gains.

Financial Weaponization: Attacking “Paper Crude”

Trump’s intervention strategy extends into the futures markets. Bloomberg notes that the US and Japan have considered directly intervening in crude oil futures—bushing not just releasing reserves—with discussions deliberately leaked to the market to create a deterrent that could cause longs to retreat.

Iran is well aware of this. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s leader, wrote on social media: “Fake news is used to manipulate financial and oil markets, helping the US and Israel escape trouble. We know exactly what’s happening in the paper oil market.” Bloomberg reports that Tehran has launched its own social media counterattack, trying to fight fire with fire.

This game reveals a new dimension of modern conflict: Belligerent nations are turning oil price narratives into a battlefield, one side pushing prices higher to increase economic costs of conflict, the other pushing lower to sustain their ability to fight.

Cracks Are Showing: Physical Laws Strike Back

However, the effectiveness of financial narratives is beginning to be eroded by physical realities.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated at the Houston CERAWeek energy conference this week that physical supply disruptions “have not yet fully reflected in the oil futures curve.” This view aligns with many industry insiders.

Physical market pressures are already evident in Asia. South Korea has entered “crisis mode,” implementing fuel price caps for the first time in nearly three decades; the Philippines has shortened government working hours to reduce commuting energy use; Pakistan has shut schools for two weeks and shifted heavily to remote work.

Bloomberg reports, based on exchanges with Javier Blas, industry executives, and officials, that the US is well aware that the next two weeks will determine the direction of the physical crude market. And Iran knows this too.

The Deadline Approaches: A Two-Week Window

The White House initially planned for a conflict lasting four to five weeks. This Saturday marks the fifth week of the war. Bloomberg notes that once this period passes, markets will become much less sensitive to verbal interventions.

The physical crude shortages already visible in Asia, if no ceasefire is reached, will spread to Europe and the US West Coast. At that point, Trump’s Truth Social posts will lose their ability to move markets—when physical crude truly begins to run out, the power of the narrative will be gone.

How long can Trump keep suppressing oil prices? The answer may be only one: until physical inventories are exhausted. Then, he will face two stark choices—either take more aggressive physical measures to force supply through, or, as the “TACO” strategy suggests, seek some form of political compromise. Either way, the game of words versus physical law is entering its final countdown.

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