ZTO Express, YTO Express, STO Express, YunDa Express, and J&T Express Implement Intensive Rate Adjustments to Offset Rising Fuel Costs

Financial Times Reporter Nie Yinghao

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues to impact the global transportation system. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil trade, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel. This has led to the sixth domestic fuel price adjustment of the year at 24:00 on March 23, returning to the “9-yuan era.” Market expectations suggest that oil prices will continue to rise further.

Courier companies face rising transportation costs

The sharp increase in oil prices has driven up logistics and transportation costs. Coupled with ongoing efforts to curb industry “overcompetition,” courier prices have been adjusted multiple times this year, making price hikes almost a necessity for all courier companies. On March 23, coinciding with the sixth domestic fuel price adjustment this year, five major courier companies—ZTO, YTO, STO, Yunda, and Jitu—jointly announced price adjustments. Guizhou became the first province to implement the new prices after the adjustment.

All five courier companies’ notices indicate that rising fuel costs have increased transportation expenses. To ensure healthy and stable development, and considering the companies’ rigid cost structures, starting from March 23, 2026, within Guizhou Province, delivery prices will be adjusted. Customers are advised to confirm prices with local branches before placing orders. All existing inventory will be compensated at the new rates.

The notices specify that the shipping fee per label in Guizhou will increase by 0.05 yuan, with the minimum courier charge rising to 1.2 yuan per parcel. All local courier brands will implement the new prices simultaneously, with no room for differentiated pricing.

Many regions announce courier price hikes

Previously, under the context of “anti-overcompetition” in the courier industry, Sichuan led the way in adjusting courier prices. On March 10, Jitu, ZTO, YTO, STO, and other courier companies announced that, starting March 11, in response to or in compliance with “anti-overcompetition” policies, they would adjust parcel prices in Sichuan, canceling some discounts across the region. These companies synchronized price increases across Sichuan, raising the delivery fee per parcel by 0.1 yuan and increasing the collection price by 0.1 to 0.3 yuan per parcel.

Subsequently, other regions such as Yiwu, Yunnan, and Jiangxi also announced courier price increases. Yiwu’s franchise courier companies announced higher delivery fees, and some cities added special surcharges due to increased delivery costs, such as an extra 1 yuan per parcel for shipments to Beijing and Shanghai starting March 13. On March 17, courier companies in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other areas issued notices to customers, announcing the removal of some discounts and price adjustments based on costs. Jiangxi increased prices by 0.1 yuan per parcel for low-cost outlets and customers below the company’s minimum cost.

Since Q4 2025, the industry has seen continuous increases in unit prices. For example, as of the end of February 2026, Shentong’s per-parcel price rose from 1.97 yuan last year to 2.44 yuan, a 24% increase; YTO increased about 15% to 2.4 yuan; Yunda rose approximately 18% to 2.25 yuan.

Industry profit differentiation

For the courier industry, which heavily relies on road transportation, the recent sharp rise in fuel prices may temporarily increase operating costs or lead to profit disparities within the industry.

Huatai Securities pointed out that, in the short term, every 10% increase in oil prices raises per-parcel costs by about 0.012 yuan. Franchise courier companies mainly bear costs related to delivery fees, transportation, and transfer. “Tungda” logistics costs account for roughly 20% of total costs. If the fleet is fully self-operated, fuel costs make up about 30% of transportation costs. Overall, fuel costs account for approximately 6% of total courier costs.

Huatai Securities estimates that if international oil prices rise from $60 to $80–$100 per barrel, aviation kerosene and domestic diesel prices could increase by approximately 1,267 yuan/ton and 2,534 yuan/ton, respectively. This would raise airline unit costs by about 7.3% and 14.7%, and impact long-distance road freight rates by about 3.7% and 7.5%, with less than 1.5% effect on courier prices. Due to weak demand and intensified competition, road and courier companies have limited ability to pass on these costs.

For e-commerce courier companies like “Tungda,” whose 2024 per-parcel transportation cost is about 0.4 yuan, with fuel costs accounting for roughly 30%, a 10% increase in oil prices would raise costs by 0.012 yuan per parcel. If oil prices rise from $60 to $80 or $100 per barrel, domestic diesel prices could increase by 12% and 24%, respectively, leading to per-parcel cost increases of 0.014 and 0.028 yuan, representing 0.7% and 1.3% of the parcel price.

Huatai Securities believes that leading logistics companies can partially pass on “fuel surcharges” to customers. However, franchise and small-medium logistics firms face fierce price competition and excess supply, making it harder to transfer fuel costs. Customers are sensitive to logistics prices, and the ability to pass on fuel costs is limited.

“Should geopolitical tensions escalate and oil prices remain high, the ability to transfer costs will determine profit differentiation in the medium to long term. Leading companies with high freight rates and high service quality will have stronger price transmission and better long-term profitability. Conversely, e-commerce courier clients with lower freight rates are more price-sensitive, making it difficult for companies to establish effective price transmission mechanisms,” Huatai Securities stated in its report.

Industry forecasts suggest that courier unit prices will continue to recover. Longjiang Securities’ report notes that, with the sustained “anti-overcompetition” trend, courier prices are expected to maintain the year-over-year improvement seen since Q4 2025. E-commerce courier profitability will recover, with leading companies performing better structurally. Direct-operated courier services will continue to optimize product offerings, increasing high-value services to drive profit growth, with net profits expected to grow steadily in Q1 2026.

(Edited by: Wen Jing)

Keywords: Courier