# Let's Talk About Gold

Gold has fallen more than 24% from 5400 in late February this year to a low of 4098, with a sharp crash in late March (a record single-week decline). Now the price is recovering quickly, showing a "roller coaster" market. I mentioned during previous livestreams that whenever it breaks below the 5000 level, you can short freely. It bottomed at 4098—an extremely exaggerated decline for gold. Combined with the fact that people are still buying gold above 5000...

Many people don't understand the underlying logic. The main drivers of this rapid gold decline are:

1. **Federal Reserve hawkish policy shift** - rate cut expectations completely evaporated

2. **Strong dollar + surging US Treasury yields**

3. **Middle East conflict (US-Iran tensions)** - crude oil prices soaring

4. **Long leverage accumulation** - liquidations as the main force

These events caused the gold market crash and liquidated many long positions.

From the current market perspective, the Federal Reserve likely maintains high interest rates with expectations for only one modest rate cut. Gold will probably fluctuate between 4300-4800. However, I believe whenever it approaches 4000 again, you can gradually start buying. **Federal Reserve policy is the biggest "short catalyst" for gold.**