Spring Sugar-Liquor Fair Observation: Giants Fade from Hotel Expo, Farewell and Beginning of a Baijiu Expansion Era

Questioning AI · During industry transformation, why are major liquor companies collectively withdrawing from traditional exhibitions?

(Inside Wangjiang Hotel, the former Moutai exhibition hall has been taken over by various developing liquor brands)

Our report (chinatimes.net.cn) journalist Huang Xingli, Chengdu

Although the baijiu industry remains in a downturn, the aroma at the 2026 Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair hotel exhibition seems even more intense than in previous years. On March 21 and 22, reporters from Huaxia Times visited concentrated baijiu exhibition halls at Jinjiang Hotel and others, greeted by a strong scent of alcohol mixed with lively crowds. From the first-floor lobby to the corridors on each floor, crowds are bustling; hosts hold up phones to promote products, robot performances attract onlookers, business cards are handed out from all directions, and sales staff from various brands eagerly observe passing visitors. As soon as their eyes meet, they immediately approach: “Come in and take a look?”

However, unlike the bustling scene at Jinjiang Hotel, Wangjiang Hotel a few kilometers away presents a different picture. In the morning, the driveway is empty, with only one or two cars passing by briefly before disappearing from view. As the core venue for the Spring Sugar Hotel Exhibition, it has long been a focus due to Moutai Group’s over ten-year presence. This year, Moutai did not attend. Other famous brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe also quietly withdrew from the hotel exhibition segment.

On one side, there is a sea of people at the traditional hotel exhibition, with underlying anxiety beneath the excitement; on the other, the once-popular landmark is nearly deserted, with industry giants absent. These two scenes together underscore a footnote for the 2026 Spring Sugar: the era of baijiu relying on stockpiling, channels, and scale expansion is quietly fading away.

Industry Giants Withdraw

The 2026 National Spring Sugar and Wine Fair hotel exhibition is the most complex in over a decade.

Moutai Group, which has been deeply involved at Wangjiang Hotel for over ten years, unexpectedly did not participate this year. As a key venue for Moutai’s soy sauce liquor, it was once a popular check-in spot for distributors. In previous years, by 10 a.m., reporters arriving early would see a continuous flow of vehicles at the entrance. This year, Moutai’s absence has made the once lively hotel much quieter.

On March 22, our reporter observed at Wangjiang Hotel that Moutai’s booth had been replaced by numerous miscellaneous brands of soy sauce liquor and distributors promoting developing brands. Erected banners and advertisements lined up, but even near noon, few dealers came to inquire.

Baijiu marketing expert Xiao Zhuqing analyzed for our reporter that Moutai’s new management team emphasizes market-oriented reforms and pragmatic work style. “Guizhou Moutai’s nationwide network is already very mature. This year’s participation in Chengdu’s Sugar and Wine Fair is mainly to showcase Moutai’s new achievements and support channel confidence at the main exhibition. The hotel exhibition was canceled due to high costs, expenses, and minimal returns.” He believes that in today’s uncertain economic environment, “tightening the belt” will become a new normal for the industry.

From the normalization of price inversion to drastic changes in organizational structure and product strategies among leading companies, 2025 was a period of profound adjustment for the baijiu industry in nearly a decade. In spring 2026, the industry at a crossroads is trying to find new survival rules amid stock and even reduction battles.

Not only Moutai, but also top brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe have chosen to skip hotel exhibitions. Luzhou Laojiao, which held “Cellar Master Festival” during Spring Sugar in Chengdu, moved the event to Luzhou this year. “No one pays attention to Spring Sugar anymore,” a liquor distributor told our reporter. “Those still going are mostly developing or OEM brands, trying to find distributors for new brands. Real big brands don’t rely on this anymore.”

Discussing the decline of Spring Sugar this year, Zhou Ming, a well-known sales representative for a major baijiu brand in Central China, told Huaxia Times that “fewer clients are coming to select products at the fair now. Most just come to see trends and gauge the market. Major buyers basically don’t come anymore.” He further explained that with high channel inventories and sluggish terminal sales, distributors are shrinking their scope, and their willingness to select products has plummeted. Spring Sugar is returning from a former recruitment feast to a pure industry communication event.

Regarding the fierce market competition, Zhou Ming said, “Market strategies change every one or two months. Now there’s no growth; we’re all competing in shrinking volumes. Under these conditions, everyone is trying to minimize decline. Growth against the trend? That’s unthinkable now.”

Mid-High-End Under Pressure

The collective withdrawal of industry giants from the Spring Sugar hotel exhibition is the most striking signal this year. Meanwhile, visits to key hotel exhibitions at Jinjiang Hotel and Intercontinental Paradise in Global Center reveal that the industry’s landscape is accelerating its reshaping: while leading brands maintain their base through brand and channel advantages, small and miscellaneous brands survive on extreme low prices, the mid-to-high-end price segment (300–800 yuan), once expected to lead consumption upgrades, is now caught in the middle of the adjustment and under the greatest pressure.

“Now, the cheaper the liquor, the easier it sells. But the low-end market is the most crowded. Big brands use low-end product lines to grab market share, squeezing profits to the limit; small brands dare to compete at any price to survive. The real difficulty is in the mid-to-high-end segment,” Zhou Ming told us. He noted that a few years ago, most major brands aimed to capture the mid-to-high-end (above 500 yuan) and thousand-yuan price bands. But with consumption downgrade, not only have prices in the thousand-yuan range plummeted, but products above 500 yuan are also under pressure, with brands actively lowering prices to adapt to current trends.

Data from multiple brokerages’ market surveys during the Spring Festival show that the 2026 baijiu market is highly differentiated: high-end brands (like Moutai and Wuliangye) performed better than expected, while mid-to-high-end (300–800 yuan) brands faced pressure and large inventories. Mass consumption (below 100 yuan) became a structural bright spot. Shenwan Hongyuan’s report also judged that the fundamentals of top-tier brands are bottoming out, with Moutai’s fundamentals reversing; however, mid-to-high-end and estate brands still face pressure and need more time to clear inventories and restore sales.

This differentiation is confirmed by the investor visit record of Jiuxian in early February, which shows that the 2025 Jiangsu baijiu market reflects the industry’s overall trend. Both the under-100 yuan and above-800 yuan segments saw slight increases in market share, while mainstream government and business consumption products (such as four-kai and above) remain under pressure.

During Spring Sugar, Wang Lin (pseudonym), an employee of a large North China liquor distributor, revealed the real situation of the mid-to-high-end segment. He said he has been in baijiu sales for over a decade, experienced the industry’s golden age, and is now enduring the longest winter.

He cited the flagship product Junpin from Xijiu as an example: “A few years ago, it was easy to make money. At that time, Junpin’s purchase price was over 900 yuan, selling for 1,300 yuan, earning 300–500 yuan per bottle, and money came quickly. Back then, stock was tight, and we had to apply to the distillery for allocations.” He smiled bitterly, “Now, the market is inverted; we’re basically losing money selling.” According to “Today’s Liquor Price,” on March 22, Junpin’s wholesale price had fallen to 588 yuan per bottle, well below the factory price.

When asked why he still insists on selling at a loss, Wang Lin said that currently, most mainstream brand standard products are unprofitable, and channel profits mainly rely on customized or OEM products. “In today’s environment, breaking even through manufacturer rebates is already difficult. Standard products are generally inverted; even if distributors lose money, they keep selling to maintain channel qualification. If you don’t sell now, you won’t be able to sell later when the market recovers. Once you’re out, you can’t get back in.”

Amid the pressure on mid-to-high-end baijiu, Wang Lin’s company has started adjusting its product structure since last year, promoting a well-known local baijiu. He showed a chat record with a customer: “This liquor’s factory price is 20–30 yuan, and it sells at the terminal for 70–80 yuan.” He admitted that last year, this regional brand performed better than Xijiu within his distribution system, though overall sales were less, the profit margin was higher.

New Battlegrounds for Giants

While Wang Lin stays at his booth during Spring Sugar, the upstream liquor companies—those once closely tied to his interests—are opening new battlegrounds elsewhere: top brands are withdrawing from hotel exhibitions, reining in their sharpness, and shifting strategic focus to the next battlefield: direct-to-consumer (DTC).

For example, Luzhou Laojiao’s “Cellar Master Festival,” held simultaneously with Spring Sugar in Luzhou, has been held 10 times nationwide since 2023, attracting over 60,000 offline visitors and generating 130 million online exposures, with consumption exceeding 40 million yuan.

Not only Luzhou Laojiao. This year, Moutai’s DTC transformation has also accelerated. Xiao Zhuqing commented that Moutai’s core market-oriented reform is a full push toward DTC, a strategic choice in the context of insufficient social purchasing power and tight consumption.

Behind all these changes is a fundamental shift in the competitive logic of the baijiu industry. Looking back at the 2026 Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, the past decade’s high growth was largely built on channel stockpiling. Liquor companies pushed inventory onto distributors, who transferred stock to terminals, which then promoted sales to consumers. As long as channels could accommodate new inventories, company reports showed growth.

However, since 2023, the industry has been plagued by high inventories and inverted prices; in 2024, poor destocking and ongoing channel conflicts persisted; in May 2025, new regulations banning official banquets from serving alcohol further weakened terminal sales, making this fragile growth chain unsustainable.

Official statistics show that in 2025, China’s baijiu enterprises above designated size produced 3.549 billion liters. Ten years earlier, in 2016, the figure was 13.584 billion liters. In the first three quarters of last year, revenue and net profit of 20 A-share listed baijiu companies declined by 5.90% and 6.93%, respectively.

When will this adjustment cycle bottom out? Industry analyst Cai Xuefei told Huaxia Times during Spring Sugar that the process will last longer than market expectations, with impacts far deeper than previous cycles. The industry is likely to go through a 3–5 year bottoming phase. 2026 will not be a year of full recovery but a year of industry restructuring—a fundamental revolution from channel-driven to consumer-driven logic.

Cai Xuefei believes that in the era of digital economy and consumer sovereignty, leaning toward the C-end can enhance companies’ resilience against cycles. Past fluctuations were “inventory cycles” driven by channel sentiment; future changes will be more “mindset cycles,” driven by consumer preferences and emotional value shifts.

Regarding the unprecedented push by baijiu giants into C-end operations, Cai said that Moutai’s call for “marketization” and “going directly to C” and Luzhou Laojiao’s “Cellar Master Festival” are fundamentally about competing for users. This signifies a shift from the manufacturer-led supply mindset to a demand-driven approach defined by consumers. “Whoever can build the capability to reach and operate directly with users in this ‘C-end revolution’ will win the right to survive and develop in the second half.”

This Spring Sugar has no carnival, no myth. Only the shadow of an era and the blurry outline of a new one beginning.