Recent Thoughts

1. 76000 probably isn't the peak of this rebound, but my psychological expectation has already been lowered by about 3000 points compared to a month ago.
2. Discussing tops and bottoms is actually less meaningful; discussing ranges is more significant. For example, above 77000 is the upper boundary of this rebound, and below 59000 is the lower boundary of the next decline.
3. Value investing that combines fundamentals and macroeconomic factors will always outperform speculative trading that only focuses on technicals and liquidity. The core difference lies in the different thresholds for entry.
4. It's not very meaningful to discuss the bottom of a bear market right now, even though we are quite certain that the bottom range should be between 37000 and 49000.
5. If we are looking for a bottom now, it would be the bottom of the first half of the year, which should be in the 52000-56000 range. It is relatively clear that in the first half, prices should not fall below 49000 (the low point on August 5, 2024).
6. This bear market has moved too quickly, which is why many people didn't react to the decline from late January to early February. Currently, the probability of this bear market forming seven weekly-level structures is increasing. Based on this analysis, after closing current long positions, there could still be three more trades within this year.
As a reference, the 2018 bear market only involved three structures, while the 2022 bear market involved five. This indicates that the current cryptocurrency cycle is becoming more complex, making it difficult for retail investors to profit even if they understand the cycle.
The reason I reached this conclusion earlier is that the bull markets of 2019-2021 involved only five weekly-level structures, whereas the 2023-2025 bull market has involved seven.
If we assume an average of four months per structure (three months up, five months down), then the next bull cycle could potentially involve nine weekly-level structures.
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