$BTC Cryptocurrency Academy Scholar: Is the 3.26 Bitcoin Rally Just a Final Flicker? Will the Bearish Trend Continue to Dominate the Market? Latest Market Analysis and Trading Ideas

Bitcoin is currently at 70900. Many crypto enthusiasts have been asking recently: After grinding at 70880 for so long, should we bottom fish or continue shorting? Let me be straightforward: After rallying from 59800, BTC hasn't escaped the previous downtrend at all. The current consolidation is just a breather after falling too much—it's not a reversal. Look at the MA60 moving average still pressing down from above. Even moving north shows no strength to break through; instead, the higher it goes, the weaker it becomes. This sideways movement is a signal before a major trend change. The next candle could determine direction. Blindly bottom fishing or chasing highs will likely get you caught in the main players' wash trades.

Daily bearish framework remains intact; rallies are merely corrections. The major trend remains bearish. After the price declined from the 75998 high, it rebounded to the Fibonacci 0.786 resistance at 74011 where it encountered resistance and fell back. Currently grinding near 70880, it hasn't broken through the previous descending trendline—this is technical recovery after oversold conditions. Although MACD green bars are narrowing, DIF remains below the zero line, indicating downward pressure still dominates. The K-line is constrained below the MA30, with MA60 continuing downward pressure. The bearish moving average alignment hasn't broken, confirming the major trend remains unchanged.

Four-hour converging triangle nearing the end, trend reversal window opening. From the 71742 high, the K-line has declined with successively higher lows and lower highs, forming a converging triangle consolidation pattern with continuously narrowing oscillation ranges. The trend reversal signal is already extremely clear. MACD red bars are continuously shrinking, with DIF and DEA showing death cross signals. Upward momentum is weakening while downward pressure accumulates gradually. Once the triangle breaks through either the upper or lower rail, it will trigger a trending move.

Short-term trading ideas: Follow the major trend with small stop-losses and quick entries/exits

Lower range 69500 to 69000: batch buying northbound, stop-loss at 68500, target 71000 to 71500

Upper range 71500 to 72000: batch selling southbound, stop-loss at 72500, target 71000 to 70000; if price breaks below 70000, continue lower targeting 69500 to 69000

In the crypto space, those who know first eat the meat, those who know second drink the broth, and those who know last become the bag holders.

Actual operations should primarily reference real-time order book data. For more information, please contact the author. Since this article has publishing delays, it's for reference only—trade at your own risk.#Gate正式接入Polymarket ‌