Live Hog Futures Main Contract Hits Intraday Low, What's Next? Latest Analysis!

On March 19, the domestic futures market for live hogs declined again. By the close of trading, the main contract for live hogs, 2605, closed at 10,335 yuan per ton, with a intraday low of 10,250 yuan per ton, hitting a new low since listing.

In the spot market, according to SouPig.com data, on March 18, the average price for lean pigs nationwide was 10.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan from the previous day’s 10.04 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% daily increase; compared to the same period last year at 14.51 yuan per kilogram, it has fallen 4.44 yuan, a 30.6% year-over-year decline.

Shanghai Ganglian Data shows that since 2026, live hog prices have generally experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, continuing to hit new lows. In early to mid-January, prices briefly surged to 13.15 yuan per kilogram. After the Spring Festival, due to oversupply and weak demand, prices plummeted sharply. By mid to late March, the average price for external three-way cross pigs nationwide had fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram, reaching the lowest point since 2019, with a cumulative decline of over 24% this year, leading to deep industry losses.

In this context, industry sources say that on the 19th, relevant departments held a meeting requiring several pig enterprises to report their annual production targets and to reduce the number of breeding sows and slaughter volume based on the completion of annual reduction plans.

“Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuochuang Information on breeding sows, it is expected that pig prices will start to rise in the second half of 2026. However, from a policy perspective, capacity is still expected to be regulated, and breeders may adjust sow breeding rates to control pig output, thereby reducing losses,” said Zou Yingji, a pig analyst at Zhuochuang Information. She added that the effectiveness of storage and other measures in 2025 was not obvious, mainly because such measures generally serve as adjustments. Under high supply pressure, their impact is weakened, and pig prices are still mainly driven by supply and demand.

She further explained that over the past five years, the price trend in the pig market has experienced two small cycles. The impact of pig diseases on the market has gradually diminished, and profit-driven capacity changes have caused price fluctuations, with the amplitude of fluctuations narrowing. Prices are currently in a state of oscillating decline. Due to capacity release, the current industry breeding scale is at a historic high. The current pig prices are at historic lows, mainly because breeding sow numbers were at a historic high earlier, leading to high slaughter volumes now. Additionally, March is after the Spring Festival, a period of weak demand, which has driven prices to new lows again.

Yuan Chunlan, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, also stated that the domestic live hog market currently exhibits a significant oversupply, with the industry overall in a phase of concentrated supply pressure release. From a capacity standpoint, the number of breeding sows remains above regulatory targets, and with continuous improvements in breeding efficiency, the industry’s overall supply capacity remains high, supporting the current and future slaughter volumes.

According to Mysteel data, in key provinces, large-scale breeding enterprises’ hog slaughter plans in March increased by 17.63% month-over-month, with a clear acceleration in slaughter pace. Coupled with the large stock of heavy pigs held in earlier stages, the ongoing clearance of heavy pigs further enlarges the effective market supply, and in the short term, pig prices still face strong supply pressure.

It is understood that since the end of January this year, pig farming has been in a state of continuous losses. Data from Zhuochuang Information shows that in mid-March, the average loss per pig was about 225 yuan.

“Losses on the breeding side do not necessarily mean pig prices have bottomed out, but current prices are already relatively low, and further price declines are unlikely to support increased demand. Therefore, even if market sales are moderate now, breeders are not eager to lower prices. On March 17, the nationwide average price for lean pigs monitored by Zhuochuang was 10.08 yuan per kilogram, leaving little room for further decline,” said Zou Yingji.

Regarding the overall price trend for pigs this year, Shanghai Ganglian analyst Qu Guona predicts that pig prices will likely follow a pattern of initially low, then rising, with fluctuations and an upward trend in the second half of 2026. Since the first half remains a capacity release period with weak demand, prices will stay low and the industry will face deep losses. After the third quarter, if capacity reduction becomes evident and consumption gradually recovers, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. In the fourth quarter, seasonal peak demand will support a more robust trend, helping to recover previous losses and further increase prices.

Cinda Futures’ latest analysis suggests that pig prices still need more time to find a bottom. Data shows that at the end of January 2026, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.58 million, a slight decrease month-over-month. The pace of sow capacity reduction is significantly slower than in 2021 and 2023. Additionally, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises at the end of January was 5.7804 million, still increasing month-over-month, indicating ongoing supply-side uncertainties into the second half of 2026.