Tesla's EU Carbon Credits Pool Loses Toyota, Stellantis, "Easy Money" Business Takes Major Hit

IT House, March 4th: According to Electrek, based on the latest EU documents, both Toyota and Stellantis will withdraw from Tesla’s 2026 European CO2 emissions pool. These two automakers were among the highest-paying members in the pool.

This move is the latest blow to Tesla’s revenue from carbon credit sales. Since the U.S. canceled its domestic carbon credit market last year, Tesla’s income from these credits has been steadily declining worldwide.

According to EU regulations, automakers that cannot independently meet their fleet-wide emissions targets can form a “carbon emissions pool” with other manufacturers that have surplus credits. Tesla, which only sells zero-emission vehicles, is a typical example. As a condition of cooperation, pool members must pay Tesla fees to lower their average fleet emissions.

Tesla has profited significantly from these collaborations. In 2019, Fiat Chrysler (now Stellantis) signed a carbon pool cooperation agreement worth up to $2 billion (IT House note: approximately 13.83 billion RMB at current exchange rates). In subsequent years, Honda and Jaguar Land Rover also joined.

By the 2025 compliance year, the pool expanded to include Toyota, Stellantis, Leapmotor, Ford, Honda, Mazda, Subaru, and Suzuki. UBS analysts estimate that, in the European market alone, this large alliance could generate over €1 billion (approximately 8.023 billion RMB at current exchange rates) in revenue for Tesla.

However, EU documents show that in 2026, the pool members will be reduced to Tesla, Ford, Honda, Mazda, and Suzuki, with Toyota and Stellantis officially退出.

Regarding the reasons for their withdrawal, Toyota believes it can meet standards independently. Its European models have long been hybrid-focused, with few high-emission vehicles remaining. The EU’s 2025 target is 96.3 grams of CO2 per kilometer, which Toyota expects to meet. Meanwhile, Toyota’s pure electric lineup continues to expand, with the new Urban Cruiser launched in European showrooms, and the bZ4X performing steadily, becoming Denmark’s best-selling electric vehicle in February 2026.

Stellantis, according to Dataforce, is projected to exceed its 2025 CO2 emissions target by about 6 grams per kilometer but holds the trump card of Leapmotor. Stellantis owns a majority stake in this Chinese EV company, which is rapidly expanding its European production capacity through the Zaragoza factory in Spain, with an annual capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles after upgrades.

Stellantis can form a separate carbon pool with Leapmotor, using Leapmotor’s zero-emission vehicles to offset its own emissions, eliminating the need to pay Tesla. In Q4 2025 alone, Leapmotor delivered over 17,000 vehicles in Europe, with dealer networks expanding to over 800 locations.

This is a microcosm of the mounting pressure on Tesla’s carbon credit business. In 2024, Tesla’s global revenue from carbon credits reached a record $2.76 billion (approximately 19.086 billion RMB at current exchange rates); in 2025, this figure declined by 28% year-over-year to about $2 billion (approximately 13.83 billion RMB), and the downward trend continues.

In the U.S., the carbon credit market was officially canceled in 2025, resulting in Tesla losing about $1.4 billion (approximately 9.681 billion RMB) in revenue over nine months. In Europe, the EU Commission has granted an additional three-year buffer period for automakers to meet new emissions targets, significantly reducing the urgency for automakers to ally with Tesla.

Now, with the withdrawal of Europe’s two core members, the European operations, which were expected to partly offset the US market losses, will further shrink.

The only variable is that the EU’s carbon pool scheme is only finalized on December 1 each year. If Toyota or Stellantis’ emissions fall short of expectations mid-year, they could theoretically rejoin. However, industry trends are already clear: automakers are increasingly relying on their own efforts to achieve compliance.